Capitulation?

The volume early today looked like capitulation at least in the short term I’m still rather bearish but have seen enough that could spark a bounce A few thoughts from the plane Take off half of the index ETF put spreads we recently recommended  Have a great weekend

First Call February 28, 2020

S&P futures down 0.56%, but off worst levels, in Friday morning trading after the index fell more than 3% in three of the last four sessions and is poised for worst week since the financial crisis in 2008. It has only taken six days for S&P to fall more than 10% from a record into a correction, the fastest such turnaround on record. Asian markets sharply lower overnight, led by China and Japan. European markets under further pressure. Treasuries catching another big rally with curve steepening. Dollar weaker vs yen but a touch better on euro cross. Gold down 0.9% and on track for a weekly pullback despite the marked pickup in risk aversion. WTI crude off 2.7%, off worst levels, as oil continues to be one of the hardest hit asset classes on demand concerns. S&P bullish sentiment is at 9% and is oversold Take a look at the premarket movers as many issues are above today’s VWAP a sign of buying I am traveling today and will not publish a Daily Note If I need to post something regarding Trade Ideas I will on the plane

Potential Short Term Bottom

Very fast markets today.   Covered a bunch of stuff and added some new short term long exposure for a bounce Not everything has lined up for strong bottom and this might be the first of five down waves SPY vs TLT ratio has worked very well again and it might turn in the next few days  One of the reasons for the bounce in stocks could be tomorrow’s pension rebalance I’ll be traveling tomorrow so tomorrow’s First Call will be the only note

First Call February 27, 2020

S&P futures down 1.3%, near worst levels, after the index finished lower on Wednesday for a fifth straight session. Asian markets mixed overnight with Greater China outperforming while Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan saw big declines. European markets under pressure. Treasuries stronger with some curve steepening. Dollar weaker vs both yen and euro. Gold up 0.6%. WTI crude down another 2.9% after selling off nearly 10% over the last four sessions. S&P bullish sentiment is at 22% down from peak of 92% and still potential for a little more downside

One Way To Judge A Correction

A big report today with analysis on a lot of markets and sector ETF’s One of my mentors told me years ago how to judge a correction Adding SPY and QQQ short again with tight stops And SPY, QQQ, and IWM put spread ideas I’m back to neutral on Bitcoin and less bullish on bonds here

First Call February 26, 2020

S&P futures down 0.1% in choppy trading after US equities came under further pressure on Tuesday with S&P 500 suffering first back-to-back decline of over 3% since the August 2015 China devaluation. S&P bullish sentiment is at 30% and the lowest level since last June. This can and probably will continue into the teens and maybe single digits. Asian markets broadly lower overnight with Australia the worst performer. China, Japan, and Hong Kong all fell less than 1%. European down markets with Germany one of the notable laggards. Treasuries mostly weaker with the curve steepening. Dollar firmer on risk-sensitive yen crosses while a bit weaker vs euro. Gold down 0.1%. WTI crude down 1.7%. Thinking about buying a few things for short term trades today. I will put out a Trade Ideas email by 10am if I do

Initial Damage Assessment

Wanted to get this note out ASAP to evaluate what we want to see before we buy Important note with good studies and indicators that you need to watch

First Call February 25, 2020

S&P futures up 0.4%, off worst levels and significantly off overnight highs. S&P suffered the biggest one-day pullback since February 2018. Asian equities mixed overnight. Japan the big decliner after being closed on Monday, losing more than 3%. Australia also fell sharply though South Korea bounced. European markets weaker. Treasuries little changed after big gains on Monday. Dollar extending recent weakness vs yen but better on the euro cross. Gold down 1.5%, giving back a good chunk of recent gains. WTI crude down 0.4% after yesterday’s 3.7% drop. Bullish sentiment for S&P dropped under 50% to 43% Today’s Daily Note will do an initial damage assessment after yesterday’s action

Algos Can Also Sell… Who Knew!?

Algo’s have learned to sell.  Who knew?!! Equity sentiment is breaking and not oversold yet Stocks are also not oversold yet enough For the first time since early Fall there are more DeMark buy signals within the S&P on a daily time frame I’m headed into NYC today to be on Bloomberg at 2:30 EST.   I’m talking about Gold which I have liked long since November  Some wild moves on equity indexes today especially in Europe and Asia US 10 year yield will get the DeMark Countdown 13 tomorrow but will it be the low? Some more Energy stuff with some downside DeMark buy Countdown 13’s but not on WTI   

First Call February 24, 2020

S&P futures down 2.4% after US equities came under some pressure late last week. Stocks on track for the first three-day losing streak since early December. Asian equities lower overnight with South Korea and Australia the big decliners, followed by Hong Kong and Taiwan. China held up better while Japan closed for the holiday. European markets down big with Italy one of the worst performers. Treasuries rallying across the curve. Dollar weaker vs yen but better vs euro and sterling. Gold up 2.1%. WTI crude down 3.9%. I will be on Bloomberg TV at 2:30pm EST today Most of the Market Conviction page is updated and will be 100% done by 10am