Largest Short Covering in Four Years

The largest short covering was seen yesterday in four years, however, there has also been the largest long selling month too in the past 3 years Lots of stuff on today’s note Europe, Asia, Currencies, Crude

First Call April 30, 2020

S&P futures down 0.6%, near worst levels in Thursday morning trading after another round of big gains on Wednesday. Asian markets higher overnight with Australia, Japan, and Taiwan the standouts and China up 1%. European markets mostly lower. Treasuries mostly firmer with the curve deepening. Dollar narrowly mixed vs euro and yen. Gold up 1%. WTI crude up 15.% after jumping 22% in prior session following another flurry of selling pressure early in the week.

Tremendous Optimism

Sorry for the late note today.  I’ve been on a lot of calls today Trump calls this “Tremendous Optimism”  I agree The market likes the Gilead drug news although it’s not a silver bullet FOMO is back Adding a new short idea Still have very few Trade Ideas on the sheets – a few stinkers I’m giving a few days  Take off half the Bitcoin long if you followed along Tesla reports tonight and expecting an 11% implied move – don’t trade this if you don’t like risk

First Call April 29, 2020

S&P futures up 0.5% well off the highs in Wednesday morning trading after three of the four major indexes fell on Tuesday, unable to sustain earlier gains. Asian markets mostly higher overnight with Taiwan and Australia seeing sharp gains, followed by South Korea, while Greater China was mixed. Japan closed for a holiday. European markets mostly higher. Treasuries firmer with some curve flattening. Dollar extending its recent softness on the yen and euro crosses. Gold down 0.1%. WTI crude up 16.9% after some additional selling pressure earlier in the week.

Bullet Points

Bullet points today of things I’m observing in the markets Consumer Confidence crashed FAANG underperformance ahead of earnings US Sector ETF update Charlie stopped by today Here is the replay link of today’s webinar on short interest Use this password: 5l$*22N$     

First Call April 28, 2020

S&P futures up 1.2%, near best levels, after US equities rallied on Monday. Asian markets mixed overnight. Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan were among the best performers while Japan and China saw modest pullbacks. European markets mostly higher. Treasuries little changed. Dollar under pressure on the major crosses. Gold up 0.1%. WTI crude down 12.9% after falling nearly 25% on Monday and more than 30% last week. The biggest headwind on oil as of late has been a lack of storage capacity. Our short interest webinar starts at 9am ET today. Here’s the link to register

If You Open It Will They Come?

When they open up the global economy from lockdown will people come back out and spend money? More drift up today with this optimism with equity markets  A look at the YTD and from the March low attribution within the S&P and Nasdaq 100 The mega cap stocks are underperforming today by a lot As a reminder, we have a short interest webinar tomorrow morning  Register here  

First Call April 27, 2020

S&P futures up 0.9% after US equities came under some pressure last week following big gains in the prior two weeks. Only 2 of the large US sectors were up last week. Asian markets higher overnight with Japan and Taiwan the standouts, up more than 2%, while China lagged. European markets seeing big gains. Treasuries weaker across the curve. Dollar lagging on the major crosses after solid gains last week. Gold up 0.3%. WTI crude down 20% after plunging 32.3% last week, its biggest one-week decline in history.

The Week Ahead

A very busy week ahead with the bulk of Q1 earnings highlighted with mega-cap companies: GOOGL, FB, AMZN, AAPL, and MSFT all set to report in the middle of the week Economic data will be important too with the first look at US Q1 GDP and ISM Manufacturing Several central banks hold policy meetings, including the BOJ Tuesday, FOMC Wednesday, and ECB Thursday We are hosting a webinar this Tuesday at 9am ET to discuss the new short interest data  Register here    A replay will be posted on Tuesday’s Daily Note Stay safe… and sane as we’ll all get through this together

Snoozer

It’s been mostly a snoozer of a week with the indexes going sideways Growth vs Value has outperformed and with some daily and weekly DeMark signals that could change soon Emerging markets are cheap but there is a lot of stress with some countries like Brazil today Short Bait are stocks that make no sense from a fundamental valuation and technical standpoint and I look as several and how I determine what to look at using short interest and DeMark indicators Have a nice weekend and stay safe Thank you for your continued support