Today’s note will not have one chart with DeMark Indicators for a change as I wanted to highlight the Erlanger ETS indicator that I have shown in the past and one that will be soon integrated into the Hedge Fund Telemetry site on a daily basis. ETS stands for Erlanger Trigger Suite as it’s a mix of Phil Erlanger’s genius which a few large quant funds have said it’s the real deal.
Momentum indicators like ETS or MACD or others lag exact tops and bottoms and have been notorious for whips. However, when they do catch a trend, it tends to keep one in a trade longer and more profitable. I love this indicator for people who are not traders but could be allocating for a fund or managing individually for a retirement account with ETF’s. What I have been seeing over the last few days is almost everything triggering new sell signals. Could these signals turn back up in a few days and whip everyone? Sure and then things would be back on buy signals. In January we had short-lived sell signals and then a short-lived buy signal and then the big dump. In June we had sell signals and then they reversed up to buys. Regardless, I like this as a simple risk-on risk-off indicator.
Last night, Lee Ann and I watched “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix. It’s a documentary on technology and social media and the effect on society. It’s a must-watch especially if you have kids. What makes it so compelling and scary since it interviews a lot of the tech engineers who created many of the sites and features of search and social media. Spoiler alert: They are terrified of what they created because sure it’s nice to see people connect and commerce happen but there’s a flip side to all of this as it’s torn apart society and caused psychological damage to our kids and all of us. This documentary really triggered us. I now want to throw away my phone and move to an island.
Holding all short ideas and there are plenty below if you see fit. I strongly recommend taking down long exposure as the number of sell signals below are quite concerning.
Sentiment in the US bounced and I expect a lower high bounce then lower. ALL OF THE US INDEX ETF’s NOW HAVE SELL SIGNALS WHEN YOU SEE IT LOWER INTO THE YELLOW ZONE
SPY sell signal
OEF S&P 100 sell signal
QQQ sell signal
IWM sell signal
DIA sell signal
Tech sell signal
Semiconductors sell signal
Home Builders sell signal
Communications sell signal
Consumer Discretionary NEAR sell signal
Consumer Staples NEAR sell signal
Utilities sell signal
Energy sell signal
Transports NEAR sell signal
Financial NEAR sell signal
Materials NOT YET A sell signal
TLT 20 Year ETF sell signal
HYG High Yield ETF sell signal
Gold ETF sell signal
Gold Miners ETF MIXED BUT NOT FAR FROM A SELL SIGNAL
Euro STOXX 50 ETF flat but on a sell signal
China Large Cap ETF sell signal
China Internet ETF sell signal
Emerging Markets sell signal
Japan ETF NEAR sell signal
Within the S&P the DeMark Sequential and Combo Countdown 13’s and 12/13’s on daily and weekly time periods. With the upside move earlier today there were more sell Countdown 13’s and 12’s
In the ETF monitor there is FEZ (Euro Stoxx 50) with sell Countdown 13
FACTOR AND PPO MONITOR UPDATE
Factor monitor mostly all down today except the momentum and large mega cap stuff
The PPO monitor (percentage price oscillator) force ranks ETF’s by percentage above/below the 50 day moving average. This monitor is offered to Hedge Fund Telemetry subscribers who are on Bloomberg. The markets are mostly trading at or below the VWAP today.