Let’s see how many come true, come close, or were just flat-out wrong. We’ll review at the end of 2022

- President Biden begins to REALLY worry the Democrats with his competency and health. That will be confirmed when Chuck Todd from Meet the Press openly discusses it. There is an outside chance he resigns this year yet the Democrats will go full “weekend at Bernie’s” mode with Biden ahead of the midterm elections which they already are facing a large defeat. Democrats have zero confidence with VP Harris with potential 2024 presidential Democrat candidates organizing campaigns.
- The Fed will end QE in Q1 but won’t raise rates in 2022 as inflation peaks and the economy slows with the equity markets falling by more than 15% in the first half of the year. Unemployment will improve in the first half of the year and rise in the second half as work from home trend winds down with companies laying off people.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will still close the year down as the mega-cap stocks see peak earnings with growth sectors underperforming value sectors. Negative stories about passive indexing go mainstream. More ETF’s will wind down than are launched.
- Interest rates will rise and at times spike higher causing severe equity weakness. The 2/10 yield spread will flatten and might invert. A bond bear market will begin and could cause a global recession. Investment grade and High Yield credit markets are also in store for a very difficult year as the huge issuance in the last couple years will slow.
- The mania in stocks with the huge inflows in 2021 reverses with the largest outflows from the equity market ever in one year. Meme stocks to return to their rightful valuations. Dave Portnoy will never speak about stocks again.
- Money center banks and rate sensitive financials will be the best performing sector.
- Regulation will crush sketchy crypto assets including stablecoins and Bitcoin will trade under 20k. A major hack or failure of a stablecoin are high probabilities.
- The Republicans will move past Trump’s support and will sweep the midterms. Donald Trump is indicted in NY for his business dealings.
- The Supreme Court will have one and maybe two retirements this year.
- California politics will make a major turn away from progressive policies. Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein will announce after the Congressional midterm elections they will either resign immediately (most likely Feinstein) or will not seek reelection. Due to outrage over crime and high taxes Governor Gavin Newsom will lose reelection to a Republican.
- Random market predictions: Gold drops for the year. US dollar remains in a tight range frustrating both Dollar bulls and bears. Commodities will have several up and down 20%+ moves including crude, and farm stock commodities and are the new source for ex stock speculators.
- Tesla peaks early in 2022 as stock drops more than 50% as regulators put restrictions on Full Self Driving and Tesla reports losses once again. Tesla will open new factories and demand still drops due to formidable competition and no new updated models. There will not be a Cybertruck, Semi, or Roadster sold. Elon Musk goes from Time Magazine Person of the year to Public Enemy #1 as he will be brought before Congress to face all of the Senators who he has insulted on Twitter. Elon Musk resigns as CEO of Tesla as the SEC charges him with insider trading or misleading material statements.
- The supply chain problems will end and global demand will slow. Semiconductor shortages will turn into stories of “double ordering” with a glut of supply.
- Covid becomes something the world learns to live with and fades from public attention.
- Joe Kernan and Jim Cramer of CNBC will announce their retirement.
- Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger also announce they will retire and relinquish power to new generation leaders who start putting the huge cash pile to work with the markets down midyear. When that happens and if BRK/B is down buy as much as you can.
- Cathie Wood and Ark Funds consolidates several of the funds after another very negative year.
- Stock splits start to happen again helping brokerage commissions increase especially with some of the mega cap stocks. Amazon and Alphabet will split 10×1 and will be added into the Dow Jones Industrial Average replacing IBM and Cisco.
- META and the metaverse will be a terrible pivot for Zuckerberg and he will step down as CEO and will remain Chairman.
- Prince Charles will become King Charles in 2022 after Queen Elizabeth’s 70th Jubilee on February 6th.