- S&P futures down 2.6% and Nasdaq futures are down 3.2% following global markets after Russia invaded Ukraine. Treasuries catching a big safe-haven rally with 10-year yields around 1.85%. Dollar seeing big gains just about everywhere but the risk-sensitive yen cross. Ruble weakness still the big story in FX, hitting fresh record lows. Gold up 2.5%. Bitcoin down 6%. WTI crude up 7%
- Heightened geopolitical tensions driving the latest selloff as Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Putin said Russia wants to “demilitarize” Ukraine, not occupy the country. Also warned that any external interference would lead to consequences never before experienced in recent history. In addition, the near-term economic implications in the form of higher commodity prices add the to inflation concerns that central banks, particularly the Fed, are starting to address via more aggressive tightening cycles.
- If there is a bounce that sticks, watch the VWAP levels on the premarket movers as price needs to rise above those levels. Still a very precarious unpredicable situtation and max caution is advised.
- This morning I will be covering half of 5% max position size reducing to 2.5%: SPY +7.5%, QQQ +10%, IWM +5.5%, XLY +13%, XLK +9%, AMZN +14%, AAPL +12%, TSLA +28%. And I will be removing the recent March SPY, QQQ, TSLA put spreads with 3x + gains. (correction: AMZN, AAPL REDUCED FROM 3% SIZED POSITION TO 1.5%)
- Pray for peace
market snapshot
economic reports today
premarket trading
US MARKET SENTIMENT
S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 10% bulls. This is low and oversold. Sentiment is a condition and can stay oversold for an extended period of time. It is not a trigger.
Bond bullish sentiment should see a big bounce with today’s data later
Currency bullish sentiment shows Bitcoin remaining under pressure with the US dollar remaining strong
Commodity bullish sentiment shows Crude, Nat Gas, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans in the extreme bullish zone
US MARKETS
S&P futures 60-minute time frame shows the very strong downside trend with the geopolitical events and news flow. Late yesterday and overnight there was some new buy Countdown 13’s which quickly did not work and this was something I believed could happen as mentioned on the Daily Note.
Here is a close-up of the 60-minute chart and you can see there are current Sequential and Combo Countdowns in progress. This is due to the 3rd Setup 9 on the downtrend enabling more Countdowns.
S&P futures daily has had a downside DeMark Sequential in play and now on day 9 of 13. There is also a buy Setup 9 today. The last buy Setup 9 as I mentioned then could see a lower high corrective bounce which was wave 2. Now with the Sequential in progress and in downside wave 3 I expect the Sequential to complete to 13 in the coming days.
NDX 60 minute time frame same thoughts as S&P above
NDX futures daily same thoughts as S&P above with Setup and Sequential
extra Charts we’re watching
US Dollar Index daily has a DeMark Sequential on day 5 of 13 in progress
US 10 year yield pulling back as expected with a risk-off haven trade in progress. Stay long bonds
Bitcoin daily and weekly. There is a new Sequential buy Countdown 13 while the Combo still has potential lower. The previous Sequential did not work while the Combo was more effective.
Bitcoin weekly has been a chart I’ve been watching with the Sequential in progress believing lower levels were more likely. Watch the TDST at 32,333 and then the ‘big round number’ 30,000
EURo STOXX Demark observations
There are a lot of new DeMark buy Countdown 13’s developing within the Euro Stoxx 600. This is a positive however stability must occur before buying. Price flips on the upside will take time.
