Highlights and themes
The US Dollar strength continues as a safe-haven hiding place. Sentiment is as stretched as it gets with the major US crosses. Several DeMark exhaustion signals with Euro, Swiss Franc, Yuan, and the Yen crosses are coming into play. I have to access my Sterling long position this week. I will have updates on the notes all week.
Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights still have the US Dollar strength as the main theme. It’s remarkable.
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily has the cluster of DeMark exhaustion signals but a potential new secondary Countdown might continue this even more with the upside wave 5 price objective just above. The US Dollar safe-haven trade is the one trade that has been unrelenting
DXY US Dollar Index weekly still has the Sequential in progress
Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily also had some daily signals that haven’t turned lower and now at the upside wave 5 price objective
Bloomberg US Dollar Index weekly has a new Combo sell Countdown 13 following the Sequential.
US Dollar bullish sentiment at 93% is VERY rare historically
US Dollar Commitment of Traders shows large speculators increasing long exposure
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin now looks vulnerable to the downside with a Sequential starting on the downside The TDST at 38,142 is major support. If shorting use 42,000 as a stop (I know it’s wide but this is Bitcoin)
Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment also dropping hard and can and might go back to lows
Ethereum still has the pending Sequential however this looks terrible as well making new recent lows
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar needs one more down day to get the Sequential buy Countdown 13
Euro bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Euro Commitment of Traders shows speculators decreasing long exposure
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar breaking and I might reassess my long position
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment remains under severe pressure
British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment breaking lower again
Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders shows speculators mostly unchanged and still short
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment is breaking down again
Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders shows speculators increasing long exposure
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc should get the Sequential 13 this week
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment remains under severe pressure at 7%!
Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders shows speculators covering some of the short positioning
RISK On Risk Off
This cross is often used as a risk-on / risk-off indicator
EURAUD Euro / Australian Dollar
Three major Yen crosses – extended
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDTRY US Dollar / Turkish Lira
USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment reversing lower after peaking shortly in the extreme zone
Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders shows speculators increasing long exposure
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan)