Last week due to delayed travel I couldn’t get the notes completed. This weekend I came into the office and some of my Bloomberg charts are missing. I worked with Bloomberg support and hope to get the charts back tomorrow when they elevated my issue. With that in mind, I have some other charts that are different and give a good overview with fewer indicators. There are also on the sentiment charts a few data feed errors which will be fixed tomorrow.
Highlights and themes
With the volatility in the equity and bond markets, the US dollar continues to be the risk-off go-to hiding place. The demand for US dollars remains strong globally. This week’s Fed meeting will be a good test.
Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights show the US Dollar remaining the currency with the highest bullish sentiment. Bitcoin remains under pressure.
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily did get the Sequential sell Countdown 13 with a short-lived pullback. The trend remains intact. Breaking last week’s lows could be the first signal of a trend change.
US Dollar bullish sentiment remains elevated in the middle of the range of the last year.
US Dollar Commitment of Traders
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin Daily had a short-lived reversal after the Sequential buy Countdown 13 and right back down. I didn’t expect this signal to last long so why I didn’t get behind it.
Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment remains under pressure
Ethereum Daily also fading
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar did not get a solid response after the recent Sequential 13. A secondary Sequential is possible now
Euro bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Euro Commitment of Traders
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar with a new low last week and a Sequential in progress
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment remains under pressure
British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders. New weekly buy Countdown 13’s are in play. After the daily in-progress bottoms could combine with the weekly to mark a good bottom.
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar with a Sequential in progress
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc choppy within TDST levels (red and green dotted lines)
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment choppy stopping last week at the 50% level again
Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders
USDJPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen with a Sequential in progress
Japanese Bullish Sentiment did make a very low sentiment reading earlier last week
Japanese Yen Commitment of Traders has large speculators add back short exposure
USDNZD US Dollar / NewZealand Dollar with a Sequential in progress
New Zealand Dollar Bullish Sentiment remains under pressure
New Zealand Dollar Commitment of Traders
RISK On Risk Off
This cross is often used as a risk-on / risk-off indicator
EURAUD Euro / Australian Dollar
Three major Yen crosses
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDTRY US Dollar / Turkish Lira
USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real
Brazilian Real Commitment of Traders
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso in a TDST range now
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment steady
Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) did not get the response after the recent 13’s. Secondary Sequential on day 10 of 13