Currency Markets

Currency Weekly February 12, 2023

Feb 12, 2023

Thomas Thornton

Note: The Commitment of Traders data is still not updating after a ransomware attack in January.

DeMark Indicators and Commitment of Traders basics at the bottom of this note

Highlights and themes

The US Dollar reemergence is the big theme that started a week ago. Dollar bullish sentiment is increasing and still has work to prove if this move has legs. Crypto is under pressure again with the risk the SEC bans or restrict the ‘staking’ of coins.

Currency Sentiment Overview

Currency sentiment highlights show the US dollar’s reemergence as sentiment bottomed recently at 15% and is now at 40%. A move over 50% the mid point majority line is now what I am watching close. Bitcoin sentiment is reversing and is testing the 50% level.

US Dollar Indexes

DXY US Dollar Index daily finally bounced after the recent DeMark Combo buy Countdown 13 and Sequential buy Countdown 13’s

Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily similar pattern

US Dollar bullish sentiment reemerging higher and still has some work to prove this move has legs.

US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin Daily reversed after the risk of staking coins for ‘rewards’ or yield.

Ethereum Daily topped too after the recent DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13

Major USD Crosses

EURUSD Euro / US Dollar has risk lower to the downside DeMark Propulsion target of 1.04

Euro bullish sentiment reversal after moving to the extreme zone >80%

Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar also has risk lower

British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment still holding the 50% level

British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Australian Dollar bullish sentiment also reversed.

Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar.

Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment

Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc trying to turn

Swiss Franc bullish sentiment under pressure

Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

RISK On Risk Off

This cross is often used as a risk-on / risk-off indicator

EURAUD Euro / Australian Dollar

Three major Yen crosses – lower highs vs YEN

EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen

GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

US Dollar vs Emerging Markets

USDTRY US Dollar / Turkish Lira

USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real

USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso

Mexican Peso bullish sentiment

Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand

USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) – A weak Yuan ahead

DeMark Sequential Basics from Bloomberg

More detailed Commitment of Traders explanation