Commitment of Traders update
The Commitments of Traders (CoT) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which continues to be plagued by a cyber attack that started in January. On the note, I posted the charts as they have the weekly DeMark action, while the CFTC has not updated the COT data. COT data has its uses, and I honestly do not weigh it highly in my analysis since there are many ways today long or short positioning can be expressed outside of the futures markets.
DeMark Indicators basics at the bottom of this note
Highlights and themes
The US Dollar strength previewed in January materialized in February after DeMark buy Countdown 13s (albeit a rounding bottom). Sentiment in January was at 15% and oversold and now near the elevated zone >70%. There are Setup 9’s qualifying on the US dollar, and other crosses that should see a backing off of recent gains followed potentially with new upside Sequential Countdowns continuing the upside trend. Crypto is holding support levels and could move lower if the risk-off overall market weakness continues.
Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights clearly show the return of the risk-off trade with the US Dollar sentiment strength.
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily had a rounding bottom after several DeMark buy Countdown 13’s. Now this is on day 8 of 9 with the Setup. Day 9 should qualify tomorrow. This could see a short-term pullback, perhaps making a higher low corrective wave 2 (with an 8 day closing low) then higher into upside wave 3 of 5.
DXY US Dollar Index weekly has a Sequential pending on week 3 of 13. Recall I said the downside on the weekly could be interrupted with the daily buy Countdown 13’s. This could be a lower high corrective wave 2 of 5. This is something I will continue to monitor.
Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily with a similar DeMark Setup on day 8 of 9.
US Dollar bullish sentiment has moved from a 15% low in January to 64% and can move higher
US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin Daily has support at 22k. A move to 20k is possible if this breakdown again.
Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment is getting choppy and we’ll be watching 50% level again
Ethereum Daily holding the 50-day with breakdown level under 1450
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar on day 8 of 9 with Setup.
Euro bullish sentiment breaking down
Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar at the 200 day moving average with a downside wave 3 price objective of 1.1588. But watch TDST green dotted line at 1.1842 as first support
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment is at 50% the midpoint level
British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar also with a Setup on day 8 of 9. I am watching the downside Propulsion of 0.6601
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment broke 50% and continues lower
Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators.
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment fading after failing to breakout above 50%
Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc with sell Setup 9
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment back to oversold levels
Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDJPY Japanese Yen weakness. Continuation with Sequential this week?
Japanese Yen Bullish Sentiment continues to decline
Japanese Yen Commitment of Traders
USDNZD New Zealand Dollar with Setup on day 8 of 9
New Zealand Bullish Sentiment is holding 50% midpoint
New Zealand Dollar Commitment of Traders
RISK On Risk Off
This cross is often used as a risk-on / risk-off indicator
EURAUD Euro / Australian Dollar
Three major Yen crosses – potential turns after making lower highs
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDTRY US Dollar / Turkish Lira remember when this had volatility?
USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real still range bound
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso has failed to make a turn after several buy Countdown 13’s
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment has been in the elevated/extreme zone for nearly a year
Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand breaking out
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) near breakout levels