The Week Ahead | Unlocked Notes

The Week Ahead April 16, 2023

Apr 16, 2023

Thomas Thornton

TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS

This week’s significant macro events include the US regional Fed surveys for April with the Empire on Monday and Philadelphia on Thursday, the US/EU flash PMIs for April on Friday, and the ECB meeting minutes on Thursday. In addition, Speaker McCarthy is expected to formally unveil his opening bid in debt ceiling negotiations with the White House during a speech at the NYSE on Monday. He will offer a one-year debt ceiling suspension in exchange for spending cuts and other concessions.

Q1 earnings will be the big focus this week with a wide variety of stocks from more than the financial sector, which started on Friday. The significant reports include Monday premarket: SCHW, STT; Monday postmarket: JBHT; Tuesday premarket: BAC, GS, JNJ, LMT; Tuesday postmarket: ISRG, NFLX, UAL, WAL; Wednesday premarket: ABT, BKR, CFG, ELV, MS, SYF, TRV, USB; Wednesday postmarket: AA, BDN, CCI, DFS, FFIV, IBM, LRCX, LVS, SLG, TSLA, ZION; Thursday premarket: AXP, BX, CMA, DHI, FITB, HBAN, KEY, POOL, T, TFC, UNP; Thursday postmarket: CSX, KNX, PPG, STX; and Friday premarket: FCX, HCA, PG, RF, SLB. From FactSet: “The first quarter has seen the highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for a quarter since Q3 2019 (81). If 78 is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the fourth-highest number of companies in the S&P 500, issuing negative EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2006. On the other hand, the first quarter has also seen the lowest number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for a quarter since Q2 2020 (24).”

As usual, I will work on posting earnings previews and ideas, if warranted, throughout the week.

Here is the replay from Friday’s Short Interest Webinar. And here are unlocked Currency and Commodity weekly notes. As a subscriber to Hedge Fund Telemetry, we have offered a special bundle price not on the site of $250 for both weekly notes per year. If you want to add this, please email us, and we will set you up. For some of you that are new, we have offered a great book on DeMark Indicators. We have the books on backorder but can send a PDF to get you started. Email us with DeMark in the subject, and we’ll get it to you.

A few extra charts on this note for you to study. And TroyTeslike’s detailed Tesla backlog and inventory data he publishes on his Patreon page (I highly endorse subscribing and following him on Twitter). With Tesla reporting Wednesday, I could see them ‘beating’ numbers as they have a lot of levers they can pull to make numbers, but the outlook for Q2 and the full year will be horrific. Let’s make it a great week!

S&P and Nasdaq futures

The first two weeks of April have been choppy. Late Friday, the pending DeMark Sequential sell Countdown qualified on the S&P futures 60 minute tactical chart.

S&P futures daily has been stalling at the upside Propulsion target, which was achieved this week.

Nasdaq futures 60 minute also has the DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13 qualified in the last hour of trading. Despite the strength with the mega-cap stocks, the NDX is down 0.77% month to date.

US economic data for the week

KEY MARKET SENTIMENT

Equity bullish sentiment backed off again, with the S&P and Nasdaq sentiment nearly the same reading after a month showing a wide delta between them. Last wee k I showed the Nikkei with a daily DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13. Nikkei bullish sentiment at 81% is in the extreme zone.

Stalling at the 50% level with both the S&P and Nasdaq

Vix Index bullish sentiment continues under pressure

Bond bullish sentiment backed of after hitting 1 year highs

Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment bouncing on Friday while remaining under 50% the midpoint. The consensus has now turned very dollar bearish.

Bitcoin sentiment has stalled again for the 4th time at 70%

Commodity bullish sentiment with mixed action on Friday. Energy was strong while metals which has had sentiment in the extreme zone over 80% backed off hard.

Crude sentiment is right at resistance a touch over the 50% midpoint majority level.

WTI Crude has a Sequential upside Countdown in progress and needs to clear the 85 level on this run higher.

This chart of the SPR from Charlie Bilello is part of the bull case for crude. Traditionally if there is a recession, there is a drop off in demand for crude and gasoline; however, since the Biden administration sold crude into the markets when they start the process to refill the SPR, there will be a bid in crude that will offset any demand weakness. I believe this will also have implications for inflation that will remain elevated and possibly accelerate again.

Tesla backlog and inventory data

Troy Teslike independently has calculated Tesla data better than most, if not all sell-side analysts. He’s a Tesla fan and puts out unbias data that looks bad for Q2. Price cuts globally will continue. If I were a sell-side analyst with a buy rating, I’d downgrade the stock and get ahead of this data.

Wait times are dropping.

China is a problem, as is Europe, with high inventory levels. There are a lot of unsold cars built in China in Europe, with many of the ‘best selling’ Model 3/Y’s unsold in China.

EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS

  • Monday 17-Apr:
    • Corporate:
      • Earnings:
        • Pre-open: GNTY, MTB, STT
        • Post-close: CFB, ELS, FBK, INVO, JBHT, MARK, PAC, PNFP, SFBS
      • Shareholder/Analyst Day Events: BRN, FMAO, FSD, MDC, MFD, OTTR, SCLX, SFBS
      • Brokerage Conference:
        • American Association for Cancer Research Meeting
        • Wells Fargo Sponsored Meetings at the NAB Forum
        • Needham Healthcare Conference
        • Jefferies: Exploring ESG in EU Chemicals in an Era of Energy Insecurity
        • Space Symposium
        • IAOM Conference
        • HIMSS Global Health Conference
      • PDUFA: IGX.CN (RIZAFILM VersaFilm)
    • Economic
      • US: Empire Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Flows
      • Canada: Wholesale Inventories, Wholesale Trade
      • Europe: Trade Balance, CPI y/y
      • Asia: Fixed Asset Investment (ytd) y/y, GDP y/y, Industrial Production y/y, Retail Sales y/y
  • Tuesday 18-Apr:
    • Corporate:
      • Earnings:
        • Pre-open: BAC, BK, GS, JNJ, LMT, MBWM, PLD
        • Post-close: BLX, EQBK, FULT, HWC, IBKR, MCB, NFLX, OMC, PFBC, UAL, UCBI, WAL
      • Shareholder/Analyst Day Events: ALPP, BA, BLMN, CASS, CCNE, CFFI, CIVB, EFBI, EFIN, FFMH, FITB, FLIC, IQV, KSCP, LBRT, LEE, MCO, MEC, MTB, NEO, NMFC, OIG, PB, PEG, PNFP, PSN, SFNC, TCBI, TIG, TRBK, UE, USB, WHR, ZYME
      • Brokerage Conference:
        • American Association for Cancer Research Meeting
        • Space Symposium
        • IAOM Conference
        • HIMSS Global Health Conference
        • Enercom Dallas Energy Investment & ESG Conference
    • Economic
      • US: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Redbook Chain Store, API Crude Inventories
      • Canada: Core Inflation (m/m), CPI (m/m)
      • Europe: ILO Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator
  • Wednesday 19-Apr:
    • Corporate:
      • Earnings:
        • Pre-open: ABT, ALLY, BKR, CFG, ELV, LAD, MS, NDAQ, SYF, TRV, USB, VECT
        • Post-close: AA, BANR, BDN, CALX, CCI, CNS, DFS, EFX, EGBN, FFIV, FNB, FR, GSBC, IBM, KMI, LBRT, LRCX, LVS, MIND, MMLP, NBHC, REXR, RLI, SLG, STLD, TSLA, WTFC, ZION
      • Shareholder/Analyst Day Events: AN, CBSH, CSTR, EQT, HBAN, HCA, HSC, KAMN, LECO, LEVI, NEO, NWBI, ORPB, RF, SBFG, SBNY, SHW, SON, TCON, THFF, TPH, UBCP, WSBC
      • Brokerage Conference:
        • American Association for Cancer Research Meeting
        • Space Symposium
        • IAOM Conference
        • HIMSS Global Health Conference
        • Enercom Dallas Energy Investment & ESG Conference
    • Economic
      • US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, NY Fed Pres keynote remarks at NYU event, DOE Crude Inventories
      • Canada: Housing Starts
      • Europe: CPI y/y, Output PPI y/y
      • Asia: Industrial Production m/m (revised), Trade Balance
  • Thursday 20-Apr:
    • Corporate:
      • Earnings:
        • Pre-open: ALK, AN, AXP, BANC, BHLB, BMI, BX, CMA, DHI, EWBC, FITB, GPC, HBAN, HFWA, HOMB, HRI, IIIN, IRDM, KEY, LANV, MAN, MMC, NUE, OFG, PM, POOL, RAD, SASR, SNA, SNT, SNV, STBA, T, TCBI, TFC, UNP, VIRT, WBS, WSO
        • Post-close: AMTB, ASB, CATY, CSTR, CSX, FFBC, GBCI, HTH, INDB, KNX, OCFC, OZK, PINE, PPG, PSTV, SBFG, SEIC, STX, VMI, WRB
      • Shareholder/Analyst Day Events: ADBE, AES, AGNC, ANVS, BH, CARR, CCTS, CE, CZNC, DGICA, EBMT, FEXD, FLUX, FMNB, GAIA, HOMB, HUM, IBKR, JWAC, KBH, KFRC, KMB, KTB, LAD, MATV, MYRG, OC, PPG, PSTV, RBCAA, SLAB, SRCE, VLON
      • Brokerage Conference:
        • Space Symposium
        • IAOM Conference
        • HIMSS Global Health Conference
    • Economic
      • US: Philadelphia Fed Index, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, Weekly Jobless Claims, Fed Gov Waller speaking at University of Florida event, Fed Gov Bowman speaks at Odessa, TX Event, Philly Fed Pres speaks in Philadelphia, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
      • Europe: Unemployment Rate, PPI y/y, Manufacturing Business Climate, Business Survey, Trade Balance, Flash Consumer Confidence
      • Asia: Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Friday 21-Apr:
    • Corporate:
      • Earnings:
        • Pre-open: ALV, FCX, HCA, PG, RF, SLB
      • Shareholder/Analyst Day Events: CCL, CNP, CTVA, HUN, KREF, LHX, PDSB, POR, REPX, SWK
      • Brokerage Conference:
        • IAOM Conference
        • HIMSS Global Health Conference
        • Jefferies: A Discussion with Rep Casten, Founding Member of the Sustainable Investment Caucus
      • PDUFA: MRK (KEYTRUDA), MRK (QULIPTA), SGEN (Padcev)
    • Economic
      • US: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Fed Gov Cook speaks at Georgetown event.
      • Canada: Retail sales (m/m), Retail Sales ex-Autos
      • Europe: Retail Sales y/y, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, PPI m/m

Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.