The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead July 30, 2023

Jul 30, 2023

Thomas Thornton

TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS

It will be another very busy week ahead with continued Q2 earnings and some important economic numbers that will be watched closely this week, including the China NBS PMIs for July Sunday night, the US manufacturing ISM for July, the US JOLTs report for June both on Tuesday, the US services ISM for July Thursday, and the US jobs report for July Fri morning. On the monetary front, decisions are due from the RBA early Tuesday morning, Brazil Wed afternoon, and the BOE Thursday morning. The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey gets released Monday at 2 pm ET.

The major Q2 earnings reports include Monday premarket: ON, SOFI; Monday postmarket: ANET, AVB, CAR, SBAC, VNO, WDC, YUMC; Tuesday premarket: CAT, ETN, ITW, JBLU, MAR, MO, MPC, MRK, NCLH, PFE, ROK, SWK, SYY, TAP, UBER, ZBH; Tuesday postmarket: AFL, AIG, ALL, AMD, DVN, EA, MTCH, PINS, SBUX, VFC; Wednesday premarket: CVS, DD, EMR, FIS, GNRC, HUM, KHC, PSX, SPR, WAT, YUM; Wednesday postmarket: CLX, CTSH, DASH, ETSY, HOOD, HST, IR, MET, OXY, PYPL, QCOM, QRVO, SPG; Thursday premarket: APD, APO, BALL, BDX, CI, COP, EXPE, H, HAS, K, W, WBD; Thursday postmarket: AAPL, ABNB, AMGN, AMZN, BKNG, COIN, CTVA, DKNG, FTNT, MCHP, MNST, MSI, SQ; and Friday premarket: LYB, XPO.

I am happy and excited to report my new long-short hedge fund will launch on Tuesday, August 1st. It’s taken a little more time to get organized with docs, prime brokers, etc. However, the launch will happen this week with more onboarding for those who expressed interest throughout August. If you want to learn more about the fund, you can use this app to schedule a time with me to discuss this in more detail. Remember, this is open to qualified individuals, family offices, RIA’s, and other funds with a $500k minimum.

Here are the Currency and Commodity weekly notes.

US economic data for the week

A few charts I’m watching

The percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average within the S&P reached peak levels again with new DeMark Sequential and Combo 13’s. The recent Sequential and Combo sell Countdown 13’s on the index remain in play for at least a 5% – 10% pullback.

I’ve been concerned about the high level of call buying seen on this run up as a sign of extreme speculation. This chart from Steve at Elliott Wave is similar to my chart but he is using a 10 day moving average of the equity put call ratio that is also starting to turn.

S&P ex top 7 market leaders basket has new DeMark Sequential and Combo 13’s and sell Setup 9 in play. RSI also started to reverse after reaching the highest level in a year. Note this lagged on Friday’s market upside day

The Mega Cap tech basket has had some DeMark sell Countdown 13’s with brief stalling. This had strong days on Thursday and Friday. I’m sorry, I can’t chase these with them trading at nearly 50 times earnings on average.

GS Most Owned basket also has a new Combo 13 on the highs using the more strict version 1b

The GS Most Shorted basket peaked over a week ago as the move squeezed out a lot of shorts. With the absence of shorts, there is vulnerability to the downside absent the natural buyer (the shorts).

KEY MARKET SENTIMENT

Equity bullish sentiment bounced on Friday and remains in the elevated zone >70%

S&P bullish sentiment has support to watch ~ 65-70%

Bond bullish sentiment has been in a range between ~40-60%

Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment saw US Dollar weakness on Friday, but it’s stayed elevated despite the Dollar’s last month’s action

Commodity bullish sentiment shows commodity market sentiment with rising 20 day moving averages.

Crude bullish sentiment is now in the extreme zone >80% and I’ve seen this get to peak levels >90% in the past.

EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS

Monday 31-Jul:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: AER, APLS, ARLP, CAMT, CBU, CNA, IMGN, L, ON, SAMG, SILC, SJW, SOFI, SYM
    - Post-close: AAN, ADUS, AESI, ALX, AMKR, AMRC, ANET, ARI, AROC, AVB, BCC, BHE, BMRN, BRX, BSM, CAR, CNO, CRC, CRK, CSR, CVI, CWK, DV, ELME, FANG, FBRT, GAIA, GDEN, HLIT, HOLX, HSII, HTLF, HUN, INST, IVT, JJSF, KFRC, KIDS, KRC, KRG, LEG, LSCC, MPWR, MSA, NBTB, NCSM, NTB, OGS, OTTR, PCH, PETS, PGRE, PLOW, RIG, RMBS, RRX, RSG, RYI, SANM, SBAC, SON, THC, TREX, TRNS, TRUE, TTI, TWO, UAN, VNO, VNOM, VRNS, WDC, WELL, WWD, YUMC, ZI
  - Analyst/Investor Meetings: PII
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - American Society of Retina Meeting
- Economic
  - US: Chicago PMI
  - Europe: Retail Sales y/y, Unemployment Rate, Preliminary GDP y/y, BoE Mortgage Approvals, M4 MoneySupply m/m, Preliminary CPI y/y, Flash CPI y/y, Preliminary (first) GDP y/y, Manufacturing PMI
  - Asia: Housing Starts y/y, Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance
Tuesday 01-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: ALGM, AME, ARES, ASC, AUDC, AY, BLMN, CAT, CEQP, CRNT, CVLT, CZOO, DSX, ECL, EPD, ES, ESAB, ESPR, ETN, ETRN, FNMA, FWRG, GLDD, GPK, GPN, HLNE, HRMY, HWM, IDXX, IGT, INCY, IPGP, IQV, ITW, JBLU, KMT, LDOS, LEA, LGIH, LSEA, MAR, MMYT, MO, MOFG, MPC, MPLX, MRK, NBIX, NCLH, NLST, NSP, OSK, OWL, PEG, PFE, ROK, RVTY, RYTM, SAFE, SGRY, SIRI, SPWR, SSTK, SWK, SXC, SYY, TAP, TGH, THRM, TRN, UBER, USAC, VTS, WEC, WSO, XTNT, ZBH, ZBRA
    - Post-close: ACT, ADC, AFL, AHT, AIG, AIZ, AKR, ALIT, ALL, AMD, ANDE, APAM, AWRE, AXS, AXTA, AZPN, BCAB, BFAM, BGFV, BHR, BLKB, BXC, BXP, CACC, CCCS, CDLX, CHCT, CHK, CLW, CMBM, CMTG, COLM, CTSO, CVGI, CWH, CZR, DEI, DENN, DHC, DVN, EA, EHC, ELF, ENLC, EXAS, EXEL, FCPT, FE, FLS, FRSH, FSP, GIC, GNW, GPOR, GTE, HMN, HPP, HRZN, HVT, INSP, JBT, KWR, LFUS, LMAT, LUMN, MATX, MEC, MGY, MLNK, MOS, MSTR, MTCH, NMIH, NR, NRC, NUS, NVRO, OI, OLO, OMCL, PAYC, PECO, PEN, PINS, POWL, PRTS, PRU, PXD, QUAD, RCKY, RIGL, ROVR, SBUX, SCI, SEDG, SFM, SHLS, SILK, SKY, SPCE, STE, TCS, TEX, TRTX, TRVG, TX, UIS, ULCC, UNM, VFC, VMEO, VOYA, VRTX, WEYS, WSR, WTI
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - American Society of Retina Meeting
- Economic
  - US: Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index, JOLTS, Redbook Chain Store, API Crude Inventories
  - Europe: Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment rate
  - Asia: CPI y/y
Wednesday 02-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: ABC, ACRE, ADNT, ALGT, ARDX, ASTE, ATEX, ATI, AVA, AVDX, BG, BGC, BLCO, BLDR, BPMC, BRSP, BRY, BWA, CCRD, CDW, CERE, CG, CHEF, CIGI, CLDT, CLH, CMCO, CNDT, COCO, CRTO, CVS, DD, DFIN, DNOW, DRS, DRVN, DT, EDIT, EEX, EMR, ETR, EXC, EXTR, EYPT, FDP, FTDR, GFF, GLYC, GNRC, GRMN, GTHX, HAYW, HUM, HY, IBP, ICPT, IMXI, INVZ, ISPC, JCI, JHG, KHC, KLTR, KPTI, KRP, LPG, LPX, LXP, MCS, MIR, MIXT, MPLN, MTRN, NAUT, NHTC, NI, NNN, NVRI, OPAD.WT, OSW, PCRX, PERI, PSN, PSX, PUMP, RCM, RDCM, RDWR, RGEN, RITM, ROAD, ROCK, RSVR, RXO, SHEN, SHOO, SITE, SPNS, SPR, SR, SRDX, STNG, SUN, TEVA, TGI, TPB, TT, TTMI, UE, UTHR, VAL, VCEL, VRSK, VRT, WAT, WBX, WING, WWE, XHR, XYL, YOU, YUM
    - Post-close: ACAD, ACR, ADPT, AEE, AFG, AINC, ALB, ALG, ALKT, ALLO, AMK, AMOT, AMWL, ANSS, APA, ARC, ASPN, ATO, ATOM, ATUS, AUR, BAND, BBSI, BCOV, BKCC, BKH, BNL, BOOT, CAKE, CCRN, CDAY, CENT, CERS, CF, CFLT, CHRD, CHRS, CHRW, CIVI, CLX, CNXN, CODI, COOK, CORT, CPE, CSGS, CSTL, CSV, CTSH, CW, CWAN, CYH, DASH, DHX, DLHC, DMRC, DOX, DXC, ECPG, EOLS, EPR, EQH, EQIX, ERII, ESTE, ET, ETD, ETSY, EVA, EVGO, EVH, FARO, FICO, FMC, FNA, FORM, FROG, FRT, FSLY, FWRD, GAIN, GKOS, GLRE, GMRE, GRBK, GT, GXO, HBB, HCC, HDSN, HI, HLF, HOOD, HST, HT, HUBS, IIPR, INFA, INN, INSG, IPI, IR, IVAC, JOBY, KAR, KGC, KN, KW, LESL, LMND, LNC, LUNG, MAX, MBI, MCK, MELI, MET, MFIC, MGM, MKSI, MMS, MOD, MRAM, MRO, MTG, MUSA, NARI, NC, NCR, NEWT, NFG, NGVT, NMFC, NOG, NRDS, NUVA, NVST, NWPX, NYMT, O, OHI, OM, ORA, OXY, PACB, PAGP, PCOR, PK, PKOH, PLMR, PR, PSA, PTVE, PYPL, QCOM, QRVO, QTWO, RDN, RELY, RGLD, RGNX, RGR, RM, RMAX, RMNI, ROOT, RPT, RSI, RTL, RUN, RVLV, RYN, SAVE, SDGR, SHOP, SIGI, SITM, SKLZ, SNEX, SP, SPG, SPNT, SPXC, SRI, SRPT, STAA, SUM, THG, TIPT, TPL, TPVG, TRIP, TWI, U, UFPI, UGI, UPWK, UVV, VAC, VTOL, WCN, WEAV, WHG, WMB, WSC, WTS, WTTR, ZETA, ZG, ZIMV
  - Analyst/Investor Meetings: AGYS, AYRO, HWKN, PGR
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - Digital Forensics for National Security Symposium
  - PDUFA: Ryoncil
- Economic
  - US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, ADP Employment Report, DOE Crude Inventories
  - Europe: Unemployment Change, SVME PMI, Unemployment Rate
  - Asia: Caixin Services PMI
Thursday 03-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: ABUS, ACIW, AGIO, AHH, ALCO, ALE, ALNY, APD, APG, APO, APTV, ARIS, ARW, AUPH, BALL, BALY, BBGI, BCRX, BDC, BDX, BFLY, BHC, BIP, BLD, BRKR, BSIG, BV, CARS, CCLD, CEG, CGNX, CI, CIM, CIO, CLMB, CLVT, CMI, COHU, COMM, COP, CRAI, CSWI, CURO, DCO, DGII, DIN, DINO, DLX, DNB, DOC, DQ, DSGR, DSKE, DTC, ECVT, ENOV, ENTG, EPAM, EPC, ESMT, EXPE, FCNCA, FOUR, FUN, FVRR, GCI, GEL, GLT, GNL, GOLF, GOOS, GSL, H, HAS, HEP, HGV, HII, ICD, ICE, IDA, INSM, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, JOUT, K, KOP, KRTX, KTB, LAMR, LAUR, LCUT, LEE, LEV, LNG, LNTH, LQDT, MDU, MFA, MGPI, MIDD, MMP, MNTX, MRNA, MTSI, MUR, MYE, NE, NJR, NS, NSIT, NVMI, NWN, OCSL, ONEW, ORTX, OSA, PAX, PBF, PBH, PGTI, PH, PLNT, PLYM, PNW, PRM, PRVA, PTLO, PWP, PWR, PZZA, REGN, SABR, SBH, SHAK, SNDR, SO, SPH, SRE, STWD, SUP, SWI, TCPC, TFX, TGNA, THRY, TKR, TNK, TPX, TRGP, TRMB, UNIT, UPBD, VC, VITL, VMC, VNT, VRNA, W, WBD, WCC, WD, WIX, WLK, WLKP, WMS, WRK, XRAY
    - Post-close: AAOI, AAON, AAPL, ABCL, ABNB, ACA, ACTG, ADTH, AEIS, AGL, AGS, AIP, AL, ALHC, ALTR, AMGN, AMN, AMZN, AORT, APLE, ASRT, ATEC, ATRO, ATSG, AXTI, BE, BECN, BGS, BIGC, BIO, BKNG, BWXT, CABO, CARG, CHUY, CLFD, CLPR, COIN, COLD, COLL, CPK, CPS, CPT, CRD.B, CRSR, CRUS, CTVA, CUBE, DBX, DEN, DH, DKNG, DLA, DLB, DMTK, DOCN, DRH, DVA, DVAX, EB, EGLE, ENV, EOG, EXPI, EXR, FET, FIGS, FND, FNKO, FOXF, FTNT, GDDY, GDOT, GDYN, GEN, GH, GHI, GHLD, GILD, GMED, GPRO, GSBD, GTIM, HASI, HAYN, HTGC, IAS, ICFI, III, INVE, IRTC, IVR, KTOS, LASR, LEU, LNT, LOCO, LOPE, LTHM, MCHP, MCW, MERC, MODV, MP, MRIN, MSI, MTZ, MWA, MYPS, NET, NGVC, NNBR, NSTG, NTRA, OFS, OLED, OPEN, OPK, OSUR, OUT, PBPB, PBR, PBYI, PCTY, PGNY, PLYA, POST, POWI, PRDO, PTCT, QLYS, RDFN, REG, REI, REZI, RGA, RHP, RKT, RLJ, RMD, ROG, RRR, RYAN, SBLK, SEM, SEMR, SGHT, SKT, SNCY, SNDX, SPT, SQ, SRTS, STEM, STEP, SWN, SYK, SYNA, TEAM, TMDX, TMST, TNDM, TPC, TPIC, TRIN, TRUP, TSE, TSLX, TTEC, TVTX, TXG, UDMY, UEIC, UPLD, VCTR, VEL, VTR, VVI, WERN, WISH, WK, WLDN, WW, XPOF, YELP, ZD, ZEUS
  - Analyst/Investor Meetings: AGYS
  - Brokerage Conference:
    - Digital Forensics for National Security Symposium
- Economic
  - US: Challenger Job Cuts, Unit Labor Costs (preliminary), Productivity (preliminary), Services PMI, Factory Orders, Durable Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Weekly Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
  - Europe: Trade Balance, CPI y/y, Services PMI, Retail Sales y/y, PPI y/y
Friday 04-Aug:
- Corporate:
  - Earnings:
    - Pre-open: ACMR, ADV, AES, AMCX, AMR, AMRX, ASIX, AXL, BBU, BEP, BSAC, CBOE, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, DBRG, EAF, ESNT, EVRG, FLR, FSR, FUBO, FYBR, GLP, GNK, GPP, GTES, GTN, INTT, LBRDK, LTRPA, LYB, MMI, NINE, NKLA, NRP, OMI, PNM, PPL, PRLB, QRTEA, RBC, RPID, SHO, SSP, TILE, TIXT, TNC, TWST, XPO
  - Analyst/Investor Meetings: FIX
- Economic
  - US: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings
  - Canada: Employment/Unemployment Rate, Ivey PMI
  - Europe: Industrial Production m/m, Factory Orders m/m, Manufacturing Turnover (sa) m/m, Construction PMI, Industrial Production y/y (wda), Retail Sales y/y
  - Asia: Retail Sales Nominal NSA Y/Y

Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.