Commodity Markets

Commodity Weekly September 4, 2023

Sep 4, 2023

Thomas Thornton

HIGHLIGHTS AND THEMES

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has new Sequential sell Countdown 13 and second Setup 9 unable to break above the July highs. There is potential for a secondary Sequential starting after the Setup 9. This will be something I will be monitoring this week. WTI did make a new high with the Sequential late in the Countdown. Natural Gas is still has no trade. Metals remain range bound with Gold and Silver reversing down late in the week with new Sell Setup 9’s which have been good at inflection points. Grains remain under pressure. Livestock has been moving sideways with risk lower. Softs are mixed with Cotton making a new high but there is a new Sequential 13 and sell Setup 9 likely due on Tuesday. Coffee was working last week and had a hard down day on Friday possibly starting a new downside Sequential. I will back off of the recent long idea. Sugar is testing the highs where it failed twice this year.

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY

Bloomberg Commodity Index daily did get a new Sequential 13 that we were expecting. The second Setup 9 and secondary Sequential could be starting on day 2 of 13. A move over wave 3 (blue 3) would qualify into upside wave 5.

Bloomberg Commodity Index Weekly did have the DeMark Sequential buy Countdown 13 and the upside has stalled in the last 6 weeks.

COMMODITY SENTIMENT OVERVIEW

OIL AND ENERGY

Bloomberg Energy Index daily with a Secondary Sequential on day 9 of 13, still below the wave 3 high. A move above the (blue 3), then upside wave 5 will qualify with a potential upside wave 5 price objective of 42.64

The weekly has an upside Sequential Countdown pending after stalling for the last 4 weeks.

WTI Crude futures daily (CL 1) moved higher last week with the Sequential on day 10 of 13.

WTI Crude futures bullish sentiment is back in the extreme zone at 80% after a brief and shallow dip.

WTI Crude futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Natural Gas futures daily still trading sideways with breakout over 3.00 is the level I want to see happen before getting long.

Natural Gas futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure.

Natural Gas futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Metals

Gold daily with a new sell Setup 9 which canceled the previous pending downside Sequential. With Setup 9’s working as inflection points it remains in a range bounce market.

Gold bullish sentiment bounced last week and still remains under 50% the midpoint level.

Gold futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Silver daily also with sell Setup 9 and recent 9’s which have contained the range.

Silver bullish sentiment reversed down hard after reaching 60% where it failed recently.

Silver futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Copper futures daily remains range bound with new Sell Setup 9. An upside move with start a new Sequential Countdown. I will show on First Call this week if this happens.

Copper futures bullish sentiment is trying to make a move over 50%

Copper futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Platinum daily stalled at the 200 day again with a recent sell Setup 9

Platinum bullish sentiment has been strong and stalled on Friday.

Platinum Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Palladium daily continues under pressure

Palladium bullish sentiment remains under pressure

Palladium Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Grains

Corn futures daily remains under pressure near lows

Corn futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure.

Corn futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Wheat futures daily remains under pressure with new lows

Wheat futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure

Wheat futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. There are recent buy Countdown 13’s without a response yet.

Soybean futures daily reversed after a new sell Setup 9

Soybean futures bullish sentiment made a lower high

Soybean futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Livestock

Cattle futures daily has moved sideways with a downside Sequential pending

Cattle futures bullish sentiment has been weakening

Cattle futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Lean Hogs futures daily stalled at the 200 day

Lean Hogs bullish sentiment trying to hold the 50% midpoint level.

Lean Hogs Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Softs

Cotton futures daily made a new high with recent DeMark Sequential in play with a sell Setup 9 likely Tuesday.

Cotton futures bullish sentiment has made a 1 year high

Cotton Futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Coffee futures daily started to reverse but had a very bad Friday showing a secondary Sequential Countdown potentially continuing the downside move.

Coffee futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure

Sugar futures daily is nearing recent highs where it failed

Sugar futures bullish sentiment remains in the elevated zone.

Cocoa futures daily made a new high with Sequential pending on day 10 of 13

Cocoa futures bullish sentiment is in the extreme zone.

Cocoa futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Now on week 12 of 13 with the Sequential.

DETAILED COMMITMENT OF TRADERS DEFINITIONS