This is an unlocked note. We have a special for current Hedge Fund Telemetry subscribers to receive the extra add-on weekly notes for Currencies and Commodities. If interested, you can get both for just $250 per year. This is an even bigger discount from the current offer of $500 for both as a current Hedge Fund Telemetry subscriber. If you’re interested, email us back and request the notes. We’ll do the rest to enable your account.
Highlights and themes
We recently saw US Dollar strength has moderated and now has moved sideways for the last six weeks. I still believe this can work higher based on the current daily and weekly charts. Add in the Dollar sentiment remaining above 50% despite the price weakness. Yen weakness continues with low volatility trading weaker vs USD. Risk of Euro and Pound declines remains with clear support levels. Crypto is overbought with some DeMark sell signals developing.
Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights shows continued US Dollar strength despite the recent sideways/pullback.
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily has been going sideways in a range for 6 weeks. There is a pending secondary upside Sequential on day 8 of 13, so I believe this still has upside potential.
DXY US Dollar Index weekly has held 105 and if this continues higher a new Sequential upside Sequential could begin.
Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily has support at 1248 and resistance at 1280. The pullback was a corrective higher wave 4 of 5 pullback.
US Dollar bullish sentiment has held 50% level on this pullback which is a positive.
US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar in corrective lower highs wave 4 of 5. 108 upside breakout and risk lower with wave 5 potential price objective of 1.0185 if the recent lows from September breaks.
Euro bullish sentiment failed at 50% last week.
Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar with risk lower closer to breaking the wave 3 (yellow 3) low. Downside Sequential on day 11 of 13.
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment backing off after recent gains.
British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar continues to grind near lows
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment broke down hard last week.
Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar still has risk of Canadian dollar weakening.
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc in middle of recent range
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment backing off of recent gains
Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDJPY Japanese Yen daily continues to show Yen weakness with wave 5 price objective nearing. I have been showing this price objective since July.
Yen bullish sentiment remains under pressure.
Yen Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
crypto
Bitcoin with new DeMark cluster of sell Countdown 13’s with RSI overbought.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment has stalled at 70% several times this year.
Ethereum with Sequential Countdown on day 9 of 13 with Aggressive Sequential 13
RISK On Risk Off
This cross is often used as a risk-on / risk-off indicator
EURAUD Euro / Australian Dollar remains in range
Three major Yen crosses
Continued Yen weakness vs EUR, GBP, and a little less to AUD.
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso had been in a pronounced trend and is trying to develop a trend change.
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment has been above 50% and mostly in the extreme zone for the last year.
Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) remains in range
DeMark Sequential Basics from Bloomberg
Detailed Commitment of Traders explanation
