HIGHLIGHTS AND THEMES
- The Bloomberg Commodity Index has some DeMark Sell Countdown 13s in play on the daily time frame and a sell Setup 9 on weekly. I still have a favorable view however a pullback is likely on several markets including energy, precious metals and agriculture markets.
- I sold the DBC ETF with a gain on Friday and believe the DBA ETF could be shorted. I will discuss on one of the notes early this week.
Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.
BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY
Bloomberg Commodity Index daily has some DeMark sell Countdown 13’s in play stalling in upside wave 3 of 5. A pullback is due and I will look at to be a buyer perhaps at the 50 day. Not much in price but enough to matter.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Weekly has a new sell Setup 9. If this can move higher a new Sequential can begin and a move above the October highs would increase confidence of a bigger move. As of now I expect a pullback but perhaps not much in price rather only in time.
COMMODITY SENTIMENT OVERVIEW
OIL AND ENERGY
Bloomberg Energy Index daily and weekly have moved sideways and don’t insprire much confidence
WTI Crude futures daily
WTI Crude futures bullish sentiment backed off recent highs near 90%. I could see this movign to 50%, maybe not this week but in the coming weeks.
WTI Crude futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Natural Gas futures daily remains a dog lacking any positive upside momentum failing after short lived bounces. A move over the 50 day that can hold is needed to any upside conviction.
Natural Gas futures bullish sentiment has actually not made a low as price has which is a potential positive divergence. I might be grasping here.
Natural Gas futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Metals
Gold daily XAUUSD has a little different DeMark Countdown vs Gold futures and GLD and all of them have had some sort of upside exhaustion in the last two weeks with elevated RSI moderating.
Gold bullish sentiment nearly moved over 90% peaking at 89%.
Gold futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. With weekly sell Setup 9 that has seen decent pauses in upside trends.
Silver daily stalled with the recent sell Setup 9 and very overbought RSI. I still believe this can work lower.
Silver bullish sentiment backed off of the recent 91% peak extreme level.
Silver futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Weekly sell Setup 9’s have stalled upside in the past
Copper futures daily is and has been extended with recent Combo sell Countdown 13 and sell Setup 9. A pullback to the 20 day would be a decent buy zone but with some M&A chatter this might not reverse so soon.
Copper futures bullish sentiment remains in the elevated zone at 85%
Copper futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Platinum daily has seen decent inflection points with the Setup 9’s and there is a new buy Setup 9. 893.67 TDST is vital support.
Platinum bullish sentiment failed at the 50% midpoint level and is back to oversold levels
Platinum Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Palladium daily fell again at the 200 day. This could be making a new higher low wave 4 of 5. It must hold 940.
Palladium bullish sentiment fell after testing 50% midpoint level.
Palladium Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Sequential buy Countdown 13 qualified last week.
Grains
Corn futures daily remains one that I spotted a little while back as a long yet it can’t get any positive momentum to push this above recent highs. If it can then this is go-time.
Corn futures bullish sentiment remains off lows but hasn’t been able to make a new high especially over 50%
Corn futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Wheat futures daily spiked all week stopping at the 200 day. It remains so far below highs that there is potential for upside however I’d bet this backs off making another higher low.
Wheat futures bullish sentiment with big spike above 50%. We have seen this before.
Wheat futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Soybean futures daily hasn’t been able to get upside mometum to sustain.
Soybean futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure and needs to make a new high to have any upside conviction.
Soybean futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Livestock
Live Cattle futures daily has held the TDST support while a downside Sequential in pending.
Live Cattle futures bullish sentiment bounced back above the 20 day moving average of bullish sentiment.
Live Cattle futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Lean Hogs futures daily with volatility in the past week ending back at the 50 day . 99.20 TDST support.
Lean Hogs bullish sentiment with new recent low
Lean Hogs Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Softs
Cotton futures daily did get buy Countdown 13’s however a secondary Sequential is a bit of a potential issue if this is going to bounce. It’s oversold and should see a bounce.
Cotton Futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Cotton futures bullish sentiment reversed all the way to oversold levels.
Coffee futures daily reversal after Combo sell Countdown 13 achieving upside wave 5 price objective.
Coffee futures bullish sentiment backed off extreme zone/peak levels >90%
Sugar futures daily has a secondary Sequential and continues lower in downside wave 3 of 5
Sugar futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Sugar futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Cocoa futures daily has daily and weekly sell Countdown 13’s in play. Watch the 20 day as first support.
Cocoa futures bullish sentiment backing off of extreme zone.
Cocoa futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Weekly Sequential and Combo sell Countdown 13’s in play.
DeMark Sequential Basics
DETAILED COMMITMENT OF TRADERS DEFINITIONS
