Commodity Markets

Commodity Weekly June 16, 2024

Jun 16, 2024

Thomas Thornton

HIGHLIGHTS AND THEMES

  • Continued sluggish overall action with the Bloomberg Commodity Index with risk of a downside DeMark Sequential Countdown
  • Energy is mixed with Natural Gas a recent winner pulling back and Crude stalling at resistance
  • Metals are mixed with Gold and Silver holding support while sentiment has not decreased significantly. Platinum and Palladium remains under pressure.
  • Copper has risk lower with a DeMark Sequential in progress
  • Grains showed promise but several failed to keep the momentum going
  • Livestock looks OK for upside from here
  • Soft are mixed with Cocoa and Coffee continuing to stay elevated but not sure for how long. Cotton might bounce from here but more than one day is needed. Sugar, one that I pointed out a bounce candidate several weeks ago did bounce and now is at resistance that I think can get through.

Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY

Bloomberg Commodity Index daily peaked in May with the upside wave 5 Sequential sell Countdown 13. Recent buy Setup 9 saw a bounce as expected but resistance at 50 day couldn’t get through. Watch out if the downside Sequential on day 2 of 13 continues this week with the Setup 9 lows as support.

Bloomberg Commodity Index Weekly moved higher from the Q1 DeMark Combo 13. We caught that move and sold. There is a pending upside Sequential still out there but it will need to show upside over the previous week’s high to continue.

COMMODITY SENTIMENT OVERVIEW

OIL AND ENERGY

Bloomberg Energy Index daily has been range bound.

WTI Crude futures daily peaked with DeMark Sequential and Combo sell Countdown 13’s in late March and has made lower highs and lower lows. Resistance at 80

WTI Crude futures bullish sentiment bounced last week but will this be another lower high bounce?

WTI Crude futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Sideways

Natural Gas futures daily peaked with the recent Combo sell Countdown 13. I could see a higher low wave 4 pullback which will need to make an 8 day closing low.

Natural Gas futures bullish sentiment reached the highest level in two years and backed off.

Natural Gas futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Metals

Gold daily has moved sideways for all of Q2 with support at ~2300.

Gold bullish sentiment hasn’t broken any levels yet after peaking at 90%

Gold futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Peaked over a month ago with the weekly Combo sell Countdown 13.

Silver daily peaked with recent DeMark Combo and Sequential sell Countdown 13’s. At the 50 day now so let’s see if this can bounce.

Silver bullish sentiment trying to hold the recent support levels from May

Silver futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators Peaked a month ago with the Combo 13

Copper futures daily had numerous Sell Countdown 13’s in May and now has a downside Sequential on day 4 of 13 well below the 50 day and 200 day.

Copper futures bullish sentiment broke the upside trend after reaching 90% bulls. Now holding the 50% support level which was the previous resistance from all of last year.

Copper futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Platinum daily has fallen hard with new DeMark buy Setup 9 at the 200 day. The last buy Setup 9 worked well but if this continues lower the Sequential on the downside will begin.

Platinum bullish sentiment back to the 50% midpoint level.

Platinum Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. DeMark Setup 9’s have been good with inflection points.

Palladium daily continues lower. Still above the February lows and that could be broken soon.

Palladium bullish sentiment remains under pressure.

Palladium Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicator. Secondary Sequential on week 11 of 13

Grains

Corn futures daily failed at the 200 day and might be making a lower high wave 2 of 5. If this can move above the recent May high an upside wave 3 will qualify. 460 is the line in the sand.

Corn futures bullish sentiment failed to get through 50% and remains under pressure

Corn futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators.

Wheat futures daily now has to either bounce after the Setup 9 or a new Sequential will begin

Wheat futures bullish sentiment is back to oversold levels after a strong run

Wheat futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Secondary Sequential on week 11 of 13.

Soybean futures daily bounced and failed at the 200 day. No turn with Setup 9 and risk of new Sequential is something to watch.

Soybean futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure

Soybean futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators.

Livestock

Live Cattle futures daily is moving back towards the Q1 highs when there were DeMark sell Countdown 13’s that signaled a pullback. Upside Sequential early on day 3 of 13 is a positive.

Live Cattle futures bullish sentiment remains supportive

Live Cattle futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Lean Hogs futures daily is deeply oversold and has several DeMark buy Countdown 13’s recently that have not been able to start a turn. Friday was good but follow through is needed.

Lean Hogs bullish sentiment reached deep oversold levels and bounced. It will take more than a week or one day, like Friday, to confirm a turn.

Lean Hogs Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Softs

Cotton futures daily has been difficult; however, with a new Combo 13 (strict version), it’s possible this can start a bounce after the price flip up Friday.

Cotton futures bullish sentiment backed off and is holding the upsloping 20 day moving average of bullish sentiment.

Cotton Futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Coffee futures daily backed off hard with the Combo sell Countdown 13 and has a new Sequential sell Countdown 13 still in play but with the Setup 9 there is a secondary Sequential pending on day 4 of 13. Breaking the 50 day would likely see a move back down to May lows.

Coffee futures bullish sentiment has a lower high in sentiment

Sugar futures daily has been on commodity I’ve mentioned in recent weeks that had a shot on the long side and it still can move higher but now at resistance at 20

Sugar futures bullish sentiment continued bouncing off deep oversold levels.

Sugar futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Cocoa futures daily peaked in April and has been moving back toward those levels

Cocoa futures bullish sentiment has remained above 50% for the most of the last two years

Cocoa futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

DeMark Sequential Basics

DETAILED COMMITMENT OF TRADERS DEFINITIONS