Highlights and themes
- It was a volatile week for the US dollar and many dollar crosses with economic data and the Fed meeting.
- US Dollar ended the week making two-month highs.
- Was this a matter of risk-off seen in global equity markets (ex Mag 7) despite bond market strength?
- Yen’s weakness persists despite recent intervention attempts.
- Euro weakness was pronounced breaking some support levels
- US Dollar sentiment has remained steady bouncing off the 50% midpoint level this year several times.
- Crypto has seen some moderate declines, with Bitcoin and Ethereum pulling back to the 50-day moving averages, which have been on my radar for weeks.
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Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily had a volatile week yet ended higher, making a 2-month high with Setup on day 6 of 9.
Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily did finally achieve and qualify the Sequential sell Countdown 13. Setup on day 7 of 9 worth watching to see if it completes early this week.
Bloomberg US Dollar Index weekly has had a Sequential on the downside lingering while upside Setup on week 3 of 9. Resistance at TDST level important
US Dollar bullish sentiment bounced off the 50% level again but could make another lower high
US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar shows another failure around 109 despite Sequential pending. Downside Setup on day 6 of 9
Euro bullish sentiment has been under pressure with 40% as resistance
Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Now on weekly 12 of 13 with Sequential
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar shows Pound stalled at resistance again
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment slipping
British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar tightly wound
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment has been resilient
Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar with new Sequential sell Countdown 13
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc has been surprisingly strong vs USD
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment trying to lift
Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDJPY Japanese Yen daily still shows a weak yen despite intervention attemps
Japanese Yen bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Yen Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Crypto
Bitcoin daily at the 50 day which is a level I have been saying could be support for weeks now
Bitcoin bullish sentiment has support at 50% then 40% if it continues to weaken.
Ethereum holding the 50 day
Three major Yen crosses
Trend remains although it has risk increasing with European currency weakness sharper vs Yen
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real could see Real weaken more with Sequential in progress
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso still could see Peso weaken more with Sequential in progress
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment now at lowest level in several years
Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) steady
DeMark Sequential Basics from Bloomberg
Detailed Commitment of Traders explanation
