TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS
Happy Father’s Day! Thank you to all who joined us for our Market Update webinar on Friday. Here’s the replay link. I will, as promised, have an update on some website updates and a state of the union with Hedge Fund Telemetry out soon. With the markets getting so ridiculously frothy, I’ve had recent inquiries about our fund. If you would like to do a call for an update and to discuss please use this link. For the most part, ex February when I believed the market was pounceable and I was wrong, it’s been steady waiting for clearer opportunities. My focus on the long side has been on non-correlated catalyst-driven longs with thoroughly researched ideas and smaller-sized short positions.
The key macro events this week include the RBA rate decision early Tuesday morning, US retail sales for May Tuesday, the UK CPI for May early Wednesday morning, the Brazil rate decision Wednesday night, China’s LPR decision Wednesday night, the SNB/Norges Bank/BOE rate decisions all Thursday morning, Japan’s national CPI Thursday night, and the flash PMIs for June Friday morning.
For earnings, the major reports include Monday postmarket: LEN; Thursday premarket: ACN, DRI, JBL, KR, WGO; and Friday premarket: FDS, KMX.
Notable US data expected in US Economic Calendar next week with Housing Starts, Empire Manufacturing on Monday; Retail Sales ex Autos, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, TIC Flows on Tuesday; MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, NAHB Housing Market Index on Wednesday; Building Permits, Current Account Balance, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday; and PMI Manufacturing Preliminary, PMI Services Preliminary, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators to close the week out on Friday.
Lastly, here are unlocked Commodity and Currency notes. These are available for just $250 for both weekly reports – half off the normal rate for current subscribers. Let me know by email if you want to add these and we’ll enable them. These have continued to gain popularity with subscribers as they round out what is happening in other macro markets.
weekend news
- Starbucks is positively featured on the cover of Barron’s. Starbucks Will Get a Jolt. Its Stock Is a Buy. Starbucks is growing at a rapid pace, and continues to adapt with greater efficiency and diverse products. Barrons
- Tesla Cybertruck deliveries delayed due to wiper issue (Bloomberg)
- Meta delays launch of chatbot in Europe after regulatory pushback (Bloomberg)
- OpenAI‘s Altman tells shareholders it could restructure to for-profit business (Reuters)
- Huawei‘s Harmony OS surpasses Apple‘s iOS mobile operating system market share in China (SCMP)
- Low volatility, minimal trading volumes, and narrow breadth could be adding to market vulnerabilities (link)
- Markets continue to bet on Fed rate cuts despite hawkish FOMC forecast (Bloomberg)
- Russia and Ukraine appear further from peace today than at any other time since the full-scale invasion commenced in Feb of 2022, with both sides making unrealistic demands as conditions for ending the war (NYT)
Charts we are watching
I’ve discussed how the indexes have been led higher by fewer stocks. They have been led higher by the highest market cap stocks which have pushed the indexes to new highs. The number of S&P stocks outperforming the index is at 29% which is similar to last year. It is completely frustrating for active managers as the chasing of stocks at high valuations and extraordinary price to sales ratios is forced upon as they try to keep up. Seeing equal weight indexes and broader indexes like the Russell 2000 occurred in the dot com bubble which was back then frustrating as it was said “fundamentals don’t matter.” They don’t matter until it matters.
Meanwhile, call buying on those top mega-cap stocks continues to spike in a worrisome way.
Nasdaq futures did get new DeMark Combo sell Countdown 13’s (two versions: default and strict version) Sequential is on day 11 of 13 and Sell Setup 9 due tomorrow. RSI is very overbought at 85.
QQQ on both daily and weekly time frames have developing DeMark Sell Countdown 13s with both daily and weekly RSI levels elevated.
OEX S&P 100 – essentially the mega caps also with some DeMark sell Countdowns developing.
The next two charts indicate the narrow action that has dominated the markets. First the RSP S&P equal weight vs S&P index ratio has seen sharp declines with new DeMark buy Countdown 13 and Setup 9. IF ANYTHING… a price pause with the mega cap dominate stocks should start soon.
Second, the SOX Index Semiconductors vs S&P 500 Index has notably outperformed and has a few more days before DeMark Sequential and Combo 13’s will qualify.
Correlating with the above ratio has the S&P nearing upside Sequential sell Countdown 13.
US economic data for the week
KEY MARKET SENTIMENT
Equity bullish sentiment was unchanged on Friday and at the high end of the extreme zone
S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment shows sentiment near peak extreme levels.
Bond bullish sentiment now has 30 year sentiment near the elevated zone >70%.
Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment remaining resilient
Commodity bullish sentiment remains mixed with strong gains for Gold and Silver on Friday.
EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS
- Monday 17-Jun:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Post-close: LEN, LZB, QMCO
- Analyst/Investor Events:
- Brokerage Conference:
- American Society for Microbiology Microbe Meeting
- CL King Advanced Electronics Seminar
- Concord Securities Investor Conference
- TD Cowen Radiopharmaceutical Innovation Summit
- Jefferies Consumer Conference
- J. P. Morgan Energy Power & Renewables Conference
- PDUFA: MRK (V116)
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Housing Starts, Empire Manufacturing
- Europe: Trade Balance, CPI y/y
- Asia: Retail Sales NSA y/y, Non-Oil Domestic Export NSA Y/Y
- Corporate:
- Tuesday 18-Jun:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: CGNT, CRMT, PDCO, VNCE
- Post-close: KBH
- Analyst/Investor Events: KOP, LINC, LENZ, ATHA, BFH, ESI, BALL, MTNB
- Brokerage Conference:
- Jefferies Consumer Conference
- J. P. Morgan Energy Power & Renewables Conference
- Nuvama Speciality Chemicals & Healthcare Day
- Truist Securities MedTech Conference
- Mediobanca Italian CEO Conference
- Citi European Healthcare Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Retail Sales ex Autos, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, TIC Flows
- Europe: CPI y/y, ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator
- Asia: Trade Balance
- Rest of World: Current Account
- Corporate:
- Wednesday 19-Jun:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Post-close: SCS
- Analyst/Investor Events: KOP
- Brokerage Conference:
- Mediobanca Italian CEO Conference
- Citi European Healthcare Conference
- Macquarie Asia Unbound – Road to Recovery Conference
- Macquarie Emerging Leaders Conference
- KBW Southeast Bank Conference
- American Optometric Association Optometry Meeting
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, NAHB Housing Market Index
- Europe: Unemployment Rate, CPI y/y, Output PPI y/y
- Asia: Unemployment Rate (Final)
- Rest of World: GDP q/q
- Corporate:
- Thursday 20-Jun:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ACN, CMC, DRI, GMS, JBL, KR, MYNA, TNP, WGO
- Post-close: SWBI
- Analyst/Investor Events: LINC, ALDX, ORA, NVRI, MGRM, PSTG
- Brokerage Conference:
- Citi European Healthcare Conference
- Macquarie Asia Unbound – Road to Recovery Conference
- Macquarie Emerging Leaders Conference
- KBW Southeast Bank Conference
- American Optometric Association Optometry Meeting
- JP Morgan European Healthcare Conference
- Singular Research Summer Solstic Conference
- Jefferies – Aerospace & Materials ESG Summit
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Building Permits, Current Account Balance, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index
- Europe: Unemployment Rate, Final GDP y/y, PPI y/y, Flash Consumer Confidence
- Asia: CPI Core National y/y, CPI ex-Fresh Food and Energy, CPI National y/y
- Corporate:
- Friday 21-Jun:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: FDS
- Analyst/Investor Events: LINC
- Brokerage Conference:
- KBW Southeast Bank Conference
- American Optometric Association Optometry Meeting
- American Diabetes Association Scientific Symposium
- PDUFA: ARGX (VYVGART HYTRULO), Blincyto, KRAZATI, MRK (KEYTRUDA), SRPT (ELEVIDYS), Wakix
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: PMI Manufacturing Preliminary, PMI Services Preliminary, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators
- Europe: Retail Sales y/y, Manufacturing Business Climate, Business Survey, PPI m/m
- Corporate:
Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.