Here are select company earnings previews reporting this week. I try to pick out the most relevant and potentially actionable. Thank you to Erlanger Research for short interest data, Bloomberg, Street Account, and Vital Knowledge. Several company previews were left on the cutting room floor, and I might add a few to some notes throughout the week. I might add some of these as trades on the Trade Ideas sheet in the coming days. I currently have put spread ideas with AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN reporting this week that were added when prices were higher on July 9th.
As always, these are compiled by looking at what the street expects, chart view, the implied expected move after earnings, and short interest data/options action.
- PG (Proctor & Gamble) FQ4 earnings preview (reports Tues 7/30 before the US open) – sentiment is bullish on the story vs. the broader industry (given the company’s scale, mgmt. quality, higher-end brands, etc.) although people are growing increasingly concerned about the whole space amid signs of cooler consumer demand and rising price pressures. For FQ4, the Street is looking for EPS of 1.37 with organic revenue growth of 3.5%. For F25, the consensus is modeling EPS of nearly ~$7 with organic growth of ~4%.
PG nearly hit a new high today, and it will be very important to see if earnings can keep up with the consumer slowing and if pricing stays steady. It typically doesn’t do much after earnings, but the read-through will be important for other companies and the health of the consumer staples sector.
The implied move is 2.84% – this is calculated roughly by adding the near term options strike straddle price. Adding both call and put side and the percentage needed to break even.
Short interest is elevated with 3 days to cover. On the Options Rank there has been persistent heavy call buying illustrated with the red dots. This moved higher after there was heavy put buying with green dots causing a put squeeze higher.
- AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Tues 7/30 after the US close) – the critical metric for the stock will be the data center revenue guide for 2024 (the prior forecast called for sales to “exceed $4B” – this number will need to go up a decent amount to bolster the stock meaningfully). For Q2, the Street is looking for EPS of 68c with total revenue +6.75% to $5.719B (including datacenter sales +109% to $2.755B).
AMD is down hard from Q1 highs with several gaps lower. It’s oversold and short interest is higher with put buying which can get a squeeze going if they report a great report. The risk is if the ton of buyers all year with the AI narrative give up as they have been trapped higher. I lean long into this one but would only have a nominal sized position. I will make a call tomorrow.
The implied move is high at 7.74% with some sharp moves after historical reports.
Short interest has been increasing with just 0.73 days to cover. This trades a lot of volume so the days to cover is relatively low. On the Options Rank the recent heavy call buying with the red dots has shifted to heavy put buying with green dots. Short squeeze potential.
- MSFT (Microsoft) FQ4 earnings preview (reports Tues 7/30 after the US close) – while the stock has traded off its highs along w/the rest of tech, sentiment remains very bullish, as investors anticipate Microsoft’s dominant position in AI will drive revenue/earnings while keeping the multiple elevated. For FQ4, the Street is looking for EPS of 2.94 with FXN revenue +14.73% (to $64.47B, including $20.21B for Productivity, $28.7B for Intelligent Cloud, and $15.55B for PCs). FXN growth in the Azure business is forecast at 30-31%. Capex is estimated at ~$13.275B. Mgmt. will provide additional color on F25 (the current forecast calls for revenue and op. income to climb double-digits with capex up Y/Y). The capex forecast for F25 will be a critical metric for all of tech (the Street is modeling ~$52.5B).
MSFT peaked with the recent DeMark Combo sell Countdown 13. Breaking 416 support would see this back at 400 or lower. I continue to hold the MSFT Oct 435/395 put spread added on July 9th.
The implied move is 4.72%. This generally doesn’t move that much after earnings.
Short interest if VERY high for MSFT with 2.8 days to cover. With the stock down there has been recent heavy put buying with the green dots. This could be a bounce candidate if they meet expectations. Commentary on AI initiatives will be a big focus. A miss or weak commentary will see this get mauled.
- SBUX (Starbucks) FQ3 earnings preview (reports Tues 7/30 after the US close) – while the recent Elliott news caused the stock to bounce, sentiment is cautious on near-term fundamentals given price competition in the US and continued headwinds in China. The Street is looking for EPS of 92c with total comps -2.65% (including -2.3% in the US and -10.2% in China).
SBUX gapped down last quarter huge and the trapped buyers puked (literally) and this is one thing that I stress when a company breaks to new year lows. Recent activist activity is a positive but a move over 80 is likely a better signal the worst is behind them. I don’t think the worst is behind them and might break lower to 70 with the current DeMark Sequential in progress. MCD saw weak China sales data so it’s likely difficult for SBUX in China.
The implied move is 3.45% and many are still licking wounds from last quarter’s 16% drop.
Short interest has been building all year but the recent report saw a nominal drop. 2.7 days to cover is elevated still and on the Options Rank there is new heavy call buying with the red dots.
- BA (Boeing) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Wed 7/31 before the US open) – sentiment it pretty downbeat on Boeing for obvious reasons (not just the gov’t scrutiny, guilty plea, and quality problems, but they now have to deal with labor unrest in Washington state), and the bar for the Q2 report is low (especially since the CFO reset expectations back in May during a conference presentation). The key metric for the stock is free cash flow – the Street is modeling neg. $4.3B in Q2 but pos. $1.7B in Q3 and pos. $4B in Q4. Achieving the H2 cash flow objectives will depend on output, and specifically whether the 737 MAX production rate can improve (the CFO back at that conf. in May sounded optimistic about achieving “material progress” on MAX production by the end of June).
BA has been sideways a lot of this year building a base while it has an avalanche of negative news. I would be more interested in getting through this report hearing the call and the progress they have made and buying this higher holding above 190 might be a the better risk reward.
The implied move is 4.22%.
Short interest is elevated with 1.83 days to cover. On the Options Rank it’s leaned to more put buying but overall neutral.
- NCLH (Norwegian Cruise) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Wed 7/31 before the US open) – while pockets of the travel/leisure industry have encountered some softness of late (esp. the airlines), demand and pricing for cruises still seem to be on a strong trajectory, and that is likely to be reflected in the NCLH results/guidance. The Street is looking for EPS of 34c with sales +7.9% to $2.379B.
NCLH has seen upside gaps and downside gaps after recent earnings reports. It’s down hard in the last week and could be de-risked. The recent quarters have seen gaps up and gaps down so it’s hard to make a strong call on this one.
The implied move is high at 8.85% with feast or famine price reactions after recent reports.
Short interest has declined all year until the last report with a small increase with 2.34 days to cover. On the Options Rank there was heavy call buying with red dots but has reversed with new put buying and green dots.
- ARM (Arm Holdings) FQ1 earnings preview (reports Wed 7/31 after the US close) – sentiment remains extremely bullish on the secular outlook for the company given the explosive growth in AI along with the potential for a rebound in smartphones and Arm’s growing presence in the PC market. The Street is looking for FQ1 EPS of 34c with revenue +34% to $905MM (including license +53%/$421MM and royalty +21%/$483MM).
ARM was a recent short idea we covered a little early, but as you know, taking a gain on a short these days has been elusive. Risk remains lower although this one has such a high implied move and history of spiking after earnings that I think it’s best to not be involved on the short side.
Still way to early to tell which one this will go with limited data. The implied move is very high at 10.42%.
Erlanger Research doesn’t have the short interest on this one yet as I think it has to be a full year public. On the Options Rank the drop has lured in some put buyers with the green dots.
- LRCX (Lam) FQ4 earnings preview (reports Wed 7/31 after the US close) – sentiment is generally bullish on the secular demand outlook for semiconductor equipment although there is some nervousness about the extent to which China may have accelerated purchases over the last few quarters in anticipation of heightened US restrictions, creating the risk of an overhang. For FQ4, the Street is looking for EPS +27% to 7.60 with sales +19.5% to $3.831B.
LRCX has been dropping with some other semiconductor companies. It could be close to breaking to 2024 lows with a drop. This topped with the presence of DeMark sell Countdown 13s and has a downside DeMark Sequential pending. If this breaks down the recent split that has been already announced won’t save it and trapping a lot of long holders.
The implied move is 5.38%
Short interest is mixed with total number of shares short in grey steady with the days to cover higher at 2.5 days. On the Options Rank there is heavy call buying with the green dots.
- META (Meta) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Wed 7/31 after the US close) – sentiment is bullish on the company’s secular outlook and there have been some reports about mgmt. dialing back spending in Reality Labs (which could provide a large earnings boost), although revenue growth is set to decelerate and there is some concern about macro pressures creating additional top line headwinds. The Street is looking for Q2 EPS +59% to 4.74 with sales +20% to $38.3B. Capex is forecast to spike ~52% to $9.46B.
META had two opposite price reactions after the last two earnings reports. It’s faded well off the recent highs with the DeMark Combo 13 at the high. The bar is high. They have the ability to pull a lof of levers yet the price action with GOOGL might be a precursor.
The implied move is high at 8.7% but well below the last two recent price reactions after earnings.
Short interest is heavy with 1.7 days to cover. Adding to the risk of a short squeeze is the recent heavy put buying on the Options Rank with the green dots.
- QCOM (Qualcomm) FQ3 earnings preview (reports Wed 7/31 after the US close) – sentiment is fairly bullish as investors anticipate both cyclical and secular tailwinds. Cyclically, the smartphone market is likely to improve in H2 and 2025 while Qualcomm is also set to benefit from secular growth in “on device” AI (PCs in particular could become a major new market for the company). For FQ3/June, the Street is looking for EPS of 2.25 with sales of $9.21B (those numbers are seen climbing to 2.47 and $9.722B, respectively, in FQ4/Sept).
QCOM has been fading after peaking with DeMark sell Countdown 13’s. If this report has one ounce of weakness this will break lower trapping a lot of buyers from April. The heavy short interest does have the risk of a short squeeze after and perhaps this is de-risked after the move down.
The implied move is 7.64% with recent mixed results after earnings.
Short interest is high with 3.36 days to cover. The heavy call buying has turned more neutral on the Options Rank
- AAPL (Apple) FQ3 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – sentiment is bullish on the name as investors anticipate the new Apple Intelligence product, coupled with an aging installed base, will help drive a powerful iPhone upgrade cycle over the coming quarters. In addition, indications out of China point to improved sales trends for Apple. The Street is modeling FQ3 revenue +3.1% to $84.35B, including iPhone -1.9% to $38.9B, Services +12.8% to $23.93B, Wearables -5.6% to $7.81B, Mac +2% to $6.9B, and iPad +14.5% to $6.62B. EPS is seen rising 6.5% to 1.34.
AAPL has been fading off the highs that had some DeMark sell signals a little early. A break of the 50 day at 210 support would likely see a retracement back to 200 or lower. The conference call will be loaded with hopes for the next iPhone out in the fall with AI features. There still is a quarter with the old phones to contend with. The new iPhone won’t ship with the new AI features until early Q4 so that might be a little concern. I continue to hold the AAPL Oct 210/185 put spread added on July 9th.
The implied move is 3.8%.
Short interest spiked higher after earnings and squeezed the shorts after the AI report. It’s off the highs with 2.3 days to cover. On the Options Rank the heavy call buying with the red dots has shifted to a little neutral with some recent call buying. Buying the stock when there has been heavy put buying has worked better than when there has been heavy call buying
- AMZN (Amazon) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – sentiment is bullish on the story as investors anticipate continued top line growth (esp. at the AWS unit) along with further margin improvement in the NA business. For the overall company, the Street is looking for EPS of 1.03 with op. income +78% to $13.66B and sales +10.7% to $148.75B. The two most important numbers will be AWS FXN growth (the Street is looking for +17.1%) and NA op. margins (the Street is looking for ~5.8%).
AMZN has moved lower with a pending downside DeMark Sequential Countdown. If this report isn’t great a move to the 200 day is probable to 167. I continue to hold the AMZN Oct 180/155 put spread added on July 9th.
The implied move is 7.15%
Short interest is relatively elevated with a recent decrease with 1.64 days to cover. The persistent heavy call buying with the red dots has shifted to heavy put buying with the green dots.
- DASH (DoorDash) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – sentiment is positive on the secular outlook and mgmt.’s focus on profitability (which should help margins/earnings), but there is a bit of concern about the top line given consumer macro pressures. The Street is looking for EPS of 37c with EBITDA of $393.3MM, revenue +19.2% (to $2.54B), and GMV +17.5% (to $19.34B).
DASH gapped down after the last earnings report and drifted lower. Risk is breaking 100 a big round number with a lot of trapped longs who bought all year.
The implied move is very high at 12%
Short interest is lower than late last year with 3.5 days to cover. On the Options Rank there was recent heavy put buying with green dots but has moderated with some recent call buying – it’s more neutral in the midpoint.
- INTC (Intel) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – sentiment is very mixed on Intel. Bulls are focused on low expectations, a relatively cheap valuation (on ’25 and ’26 estimates), aggressive restructuring/turnaround initiatives, and sizeable amounts of domestic manufacturing capacity (which could become more valuable depending on what happens geopolitically over the next several years). Bears feel that the two main businesses are facing enormous secular headwinds (data center and PCs) while the firm’s AI chips fail to make much of a dent against Nvidia and AMD and the foundry efforts take years to pay off (if they ever do). For FQ2, the Street is looking for sales of ~$12.96B w/EPS of 10c, GMs of 43.55%, and op. margins of 3.3%.
INTC has been one of the worst if not worst semiconductor stock this year and it might be de-risked with bounce potential. I don’t like that recently this spiked higher and those that bought are down 10%. If this isn’t great this could break to new lows.
The implied move is high at 7.35%. There have been more downside reactions after earnings vs up.
Short interest has been moving higher in the last quarter although down fractionally in the last report. 2.23 days to cover. On the Options Rank there has been heavy call buying with the red dots and it hasn’t worked out well for call buyers vs buying the stock when there has been heavy put buying with green dots.
- MCHP (Microchip) FQ1 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – sentiment was dealt a setback after the underwhelming NXPI guide, which suggested that key end analog end markets won’t rebound as robustly as anticipated in the second half of the calendar year. For MCHP’s FQ1/June, the Street is looking for EPS of 52c w/sales of $1.241B.
MCHP has been range bound all year testing the lower end after several weak semiconductor reports. There is a downside DeMark Sequential pending so if this drops it might be shortable after the report for a move to 70
The implied move is 5.3%
Short interest is elevated with 5 days to cover but it has been moving lower in recent reports. On the Options Rank there has been heavy call buying with the red dots and better buying opportunities have been when there has been heavy put buying with the green dots.
- SNAP (Snap) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – the huge swings witnessed in this stock after the last two reports (-34% on 2/6 and +28% on 4/25) is making people wary of leaning aggressively in either direction ahead of the report. The Street is looking for Q2 EPS of 2c with EBITDA of ~$41MM, sales of $1.25B, and DAUs of 431MM.
SNAP is either feast or famine after earnings. As you see the huge gap down and huge gap up. The charts looks dangerous breaking below the low end of the gap up so there could be a lot of trapped buyers higher. I would lean short but with the huge implied move it’s more risk than I want to take. You can do what you want if you’re lacking some risk in your life.
The implied move is VERY high at 19% and it typically moves in extremes.
Short interest has increased moderately with 2.52 days to cover while on the Options Rank its setup neutral with some recent put buying. Nothing extreme.
- SQ (Block) FQ2 earnings preview (reports Thurs 8/1 after the US close) – the company’s focus on costs/margins/earnings is expected to drive outperformance on the bottom line, but there are some concerns about the growth outlook for the Square payments business. The Street is looking for gross profit +17.4% to $2.189B with EBITDA of ~$685MM and total revenue +14.1% to $6.313B (including Cash App +18% to $4.19B and Square +4.3% to $2.01B).
SQ Block is oversold with new DeMark Sequential buy Countdown 13 and likely new Setup 9 tomorrow. I would lean long into this looking at this chart however short interest is very low so without the shorts squeezing it might break to new lows. In other words, I’m neutral on this.
The implied move is very high at 11.33%. It’s either going to not move by much or it’s going to move double digits. Rarely an in between.
Short interest is very low with only 1 day to cover while on the Options Rank there has been persistent call buying.
- CVX (Chevron)/XOM (Exxon) FQ2 earnings preview (both report Fri 8/2 before the US open) – investors aren’t looking for particularly robust Q2 results (given headwinds in refinery and natural gas) while global growth concerns weigh on oil prices, but both firms will likely demonstrate healthy cash generation and continued discipline on capital allocation.
XOM Exxon has made lower highs from the early April high. I don’t have overly strong view long or short as it will be the first report with Pioneer and still some risk with the lower commodity prices.
The implied move is 2.48%
Short interest has dropped with the completion of the Pioneer deal. Arbs were short XOM. On the Options Rank there has been persistent call buying with the red dots.
CVX Chevron has been chopping around with a recent DeMark Sequential buy Countdown 13. There is a floor at 150 and I might be more interested buying around there.
The implied move is 2.13%
Short interest is high skewed with arbs since they are buying Hess. On the Options Rank there has been persistent call buying with the red dots.
