TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS
The week ahead will have fewer events on the macro calendar although the bulk of earnings will continue to be heavy. Monday’s US services ISM and, the Fed’s senior loan officer survey could be market moving. Many will be watching the RBA decision Tuesday morning, China’s import/exports Tuesday night, and China’s inflation data Thursday night. The quiet period is over after the Fed so this week Fed speakers will pick up, and investors will be listening very closely given the recent wave of downbeat economic data. Kamala Harris will hold a joint event Tuesday in Philadelphia with her VP selection. Josh Shapiro Governor of Pennsylvania is rumored to be the VP pick.
I have a look below at where things stand with the markets and if “the market is oversold enough”
For US earnings, the important reports include: Monday premarket: CG, THS, TSN; Monday postmarket: CAR, CSX, SPG, VNO, YUMC; Tuesday premarket: ARMK, BAX, BLD, CLDR, CAT, EXPD, FIS, GFS, KVUE, TAP, UBER, YUM, ZTS; Tuesday postmarket: ABNB, AMGN, DVA, FTNT, IFF, MOS, SMCI, VFC; Wednesday premarket: CVS, DIN, DIS, EMR, HLT, RL, ROK, SHOP, WMG; Wednesday postmarket: CF, EQIX, MCK, NTR, OXY, WBD; Thursday premarket: LLY, NRG, PENN, PH, UAA, USFD; and Thursday postmarket: AKAM, EXPE, G, PARA, PODD, SOLV, SYNA.
The major European earnings include: Monday: Infineon; Tuesday: Bayer, InterContinental Hotels; Wednesday: Ahold, Commerzbank, Maersk, Noro Nordisk, Siemens Energy, WPP; and Thursday: Allianz, Deutsche Telecom, Entain, Munich Re, Sandoz, Siemens, Zurich Insurance.
I will post the Currency and Commodity weekly notes tonight and will have them unlocked at this critical time in the markets. The currency markets have huge macro implications and I don’t think the moves are complete. You can find them on the site later.
- Apple – the initial beta version of Apple Intelligence is a “far cry” from what Apple outlined at the recent WWDC (Apple shares have spiked on Apple Intelligence optimism, but the product, at least so far, is underwhelming) Bloomberg
- Berkshire Hathaway posts strong Q2 earnings thanks to insurance strength while cash surges to ~$277B now about ~30% of the market cap. Berkshire materially sold down it’s overweighted Apple stake. They reported last quarter nearly 800 million shares and now it’s about 400 million shares. Still a massive position.
- Nvidia will delay its new Blackwell chips by three months or more due to design flaws (large shipments of the chip aren’t expected until Q1 instead of later this year) The Information
- Here comes the Hard Landing stories “Lousy Jobs Report Forces Fed to Reckon With Hard Landing” WSJ
- Harris’s polling and financial momentum remains strong (her July fundraising figures were huge) and on Friday she formally secured enough votes to capture the nomination (as was widely expected). In addition, a number of key people from Obama’s successful campaigns have joined the Harris team (including David Plouffe) according to the Washington Post.
- Iran tells Arab diplomats it doesn’t care if its retaliatory actions for the recent assassinations trigger a broader war WSJ; Iran has signaled that the retaliatory actions it takes need to be stronger than the missile barrage launched at Israel back in April WSJ
- Hurricane Debby is set to hit Florida and many southern states tomorrow. Good luck stay safe if it is headed in your direction.
Charts we are watching – are we there yet?
I get a lot of questions about the recent decline and if the markets are oversold enough? The short answer is no. Here are some charts of S&P and Nasdaq futures and market internals. Be sure to check out the currency weekly as there are some extreme moves and many times when the currency markets are moving in such a volatile way it has macro implications for rates and equities.
Last week was to say the least incredibly volatile with a down move into the Fed meeting with a rip higher. The 60 minute S&P chart illustrates this well. There is currently a downside pointed DeMark Sequential in progress.

S&P futures opened down after breaking down hard on Friday. There is a new downside DeMark Sequential Countdown possibly starting on day 2 of 13. I will want to watch this to see if it can get to day 4 and then it becomes more likely the full 13 will complete. Naturally I’ll be all over this on every note.

Nasdaq 100 futures 60 minute gapped down on Sunday night trading. There is a downside DeMark Sequential in progress and could find a bounce tomorrow or Tuesday however this move down is in wave 3 of 5 and a bounce would likely be a corrective lower high wave 4 of 5 bounce undercutting the wave 2 (yellow 2) and then moving below the wave 3 low into wave 5 of 5.

Nasdaq 100 futures are down nearly another 1.5% with Sunday night opening prices. The downside Sequential is on day 5 of 13. It’s nearing the 200 day and some may find some comfort with that level but I’d rather get the Sequential buy Countdown 13.

Bloomberg showed this chart with the Nasdaq 100 index down more than 10% off the recent peak. It’s in red and looks pretty scary.

I saved the chart on my Bloomberg and extended the time frame and the scary 10%+ pullback doesn’t look THAT scary when compared with 2022.

A fairly simple look at when equity markets get to levels when they are oversold is the S&P and the percentage of S&P stocks above the 20 day and 50 day. I would like to see these move closer or under 20% for a lower risk reward bounce opportunity.

The recent “rotation trade” that fizzled out last week had Advance Decline data spike to overbought and has moved lower quickly all of these indexes are not oversold yet.

The 5 day moving average of the equity put call ratio actually dropped in the middle of last week after the Fed day when call buyers lit a lot of money on fire with the drop the next day. This is not at levels when durable equity rallies or bounces start.

A little different look at put call data. This is the total put call ratio vs the S&P index ratio and it’s just now starting to turn which is concerning as it’s when there is a turn that the markets sell off. The 20 day moving average of this ratio is equal to the 50 day moving average of this ratio and will cross which has seen equity market sell offs.

Here’s the S&P and Nasdaq Composite Index with several internals and momentum measures. These are not near levels where bottoms have occured. The simpliest percentage of stocks above the 20 day and 50 day are not even close to oversold.


US economic data for the week

KEY MARKET SENTIMENT
Equity bullish sentiment continued to fall hard after finally last week breaking the 50% midpoint level. The delta between the current sentiment and the 20 day moving average of bullish sentiment is wide and when this wide there are often times mean reversion bounces.

S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment are not at oversold levels. A move under 25% is when things start to get oversold. Sentiment alone is not a signal but a condition. It can and might stay oversold for a while.


Bond bullish sentiment is at the highest level in several years in the extreme zone >80%



Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment with a lot of very volatile big moves

Commodity bullish sentiment also with some big moves. Gold pulled back after moving into the extreme zone at 85%. The only commodity that was in the extreme zone >80%.

EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS
- Monday 05-Aug:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ALX, AMR, AXSM, BCRX, BNTX, CG, CGBD, FRPT, GSL, JOUT, KOS, KRYS, SAH, SHC, SOHU, THS, TSN, XGN
- Post-close: ACM, ADTN, ADUS, AGM, AHR, AKYA, ALCO, AMBC, AMRC, APLE, ARCT, BCC, BMRN, BRBR, BSM, BWXT, CAR, CBT, CHGG, CLOV, CMTG, CRD.B, CRGY, CSTL, CSWC, CSX, DAC, DCTH, DH, EHC, EVER, FANG, FG, FNF, GAIA, GAIN, GBDC, GPMT, GSM, HIMS, HLIO, HNRG, HPK, HUN, III, IIPR, IPI, IVAC, JELD, JJSF, JRVR, KIDS, KMPR, KWR, LARK, LCID, LIDR, MED, MTRN, MWA, MYPS, NCMI, NEWT, NR, NSA, NVTS, O, OGS, OKE, OPAD, OTTR, PGR, PLMR, PLTR, PLYA, PMTS, PRAA, PRIM, PRPL, RXST, SDRL, SEMR, SIBN, SKWD, SMLR, SPG, SPRO, STRL, SUM, TBI, TBPH, TCMD, TDC, TDUP, TGS, TRUE, UIS, VMEO, VNO, VNOM, VTS, WMB, WTRG, XPER, YUMC, ZI
- Brokerage Conference:
- KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum
- BTIG Virtual Biotechnology Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: PMI Services Final, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
- Europe: Industrial Production m/m, Sentix Economic Index, PPI y/y
- Asia: Retail Sales Nominal NSA Y/Y, Real Household Consumption Expenditure y/y, Real Household Income y/y
- Corporate:
- Tuesday 06-Aug:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ACRE, ADCT, ADNT, AESI, AHCO, ALIT, ANIP, AOMR, ARBE, ARMK, ATI, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLD, BLDR, BLMN, BOW, BR, BRKR, BSY, BTAI, BVS, BWAY, CAT, CEG, CELH, CGEN, CLVT, CMT, CTV, CVGI, DAVE, DIBS, DK, DKL, DTI, DUK, ENFN, ENR, EPC, ESEA, EVEX, FIS, FOXA, FSTR, FUBO, FWRG, GBTG, GENI, GFS, GLDD, GNE, GOLF, GPRE, GXO, H, HGTY, HLMN, HLNE, HRMY, HSIC, ICHR, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, JMIA, KLG, KNF, KPTI, KVUE, LCII, MASS, MD, MKTX, ML, MPC, MPLX, NINE, NJR, NOVT, NPO, NSPR, NURO, NVT, OC, OFIX, OGN, OLPX, PLNT, PTLO, RYTM, SEAT, SGRY, SMMT, SOPH, SRE, SSTK, STVN, STWD, SWX, TALK, TAP, TDG, TOUR, TPG, TPX, TRMB, TWKS, UBER, USAC, UTL, UWMC, VMC, VPG, VVX, VYX, WLK, WLKP, YOU, ZTS
- Post-close: AAOI, ABCL, ABNB, ACAD, ACNT, ADEA, AFG, AGL, AIN, AIRG, AIZ, ALAB, ALTO, AMGN, AMSC, ANDE, ANGI, APEI, AQST, ARI, ARIS, ARKO, ASH, ATEX, ATGE, AWR, AXON, AZPN, AZTA, BCSF, BGS, BL, BODI, BRDG, BWIN, BWMN, CART, CBDBY, CERT, CLW, COOK, CPIX, CPNG, CRC, CRCT, CRUS, CRVS, CTKB, CXDO, CYRX, DVA, DVAX, DVN, EBS, EFC, EGY, EHAB, EMKR, EML, ENLC, EOSE, ESTA, EVCM, EXEL, FGEN, FLL, FLYW, FOA, FSK, FTEK, FTK, FTNT, GCT, GIFI, GLRE, GMED, GMRE, GNL, GNSS, GO, GOOD, GOVX, GPOR, GPRO, HALO, HCKT, HDSN, HL, HRTG, HRTX, HY, HYLN, IAC, IFF, IGIC, ILMN, INGN, INSP, IOSP, IRBT, ITUB, JACK, KFS, LAZR, LDI, LEU, LGND, LILAK, LMB, LOPE, LRN, LUMN, MASI, MBC, MBI, MEC, MEG, MOS, MRC, MXCT, MYGN, MYO, NHI, NRGV, NVRO, ONTF, ORA, OSUR, OUT, PARR, PETS, PGNY, PLUS, PNTG, POWI, PR, PRCH, PSTL, QLYS, RDDT, RDFN, REAL, REI, RIGL, RIVN, RPD, RUN, RVLV, RYAM, SCOR, SGMO, SHLS, SILA, SKY, SLDP, SMCI, SMWB, SNCR, SNEX, SSTI, STE, STEM, SUPN, SVC, SWIM, TCS, TMCI, TOST, TREX, TRIP, TSE, TYGO, UFCS, UMH, UPST, UTI, VCYT, VECO, VFC, VTEX, VTOL, VVI, VYGR, WEYS, WYNN, ZLAB
- Brokerage Conference:
- KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum
- Susquehanna Industrials, Energy & Travel Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Trade Balance, Redbook Chain Store, API Crude Inventories
- Canada: Trade Balance
- Europe: CPI y/y, Unemployment rate (sa), Factory Orders m/m, Manufacturing Turnover (sa) m/m, Retail sales y/y, Construction PMI, Retail Sales y/y, Unemployment Rate
- Asia: Trade Balance
- Corporate:
- Wednesday 07-Aug:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: AADI, ACMR, ADV, AFCG, ASTE, AVA, BAM, BCO, BDSX, BXSL, CCO, CEVA, CIM, CLMB, CNDT, CRL, CRNT, CSTE, CVS, DBD, DDL, DIN, DIS, DNOW, DT, DTC, EDIT, EHTH, EMR, ENOV, EXTR, EYE, GBLI, GEO, GFF, GHI, GHM, GILT, GLP, GOGO, GPN, HLLY, HLT, IEP, IMXI, INSW, INTR, INVZ, ITCI, JBI, KMT, KRNT, KYMR, LPX, LQDA, LYFT, MDGL, MHH, MMI, MNKD, NCDL, NEUE, NI, NOMD, NRP, NVL, NYAX, NYT, OCUL, ODP, OESX, OGE, OPFI, OSCR, PAYO, PLTK, PRKS, PYYX, RCM, RDCM, REAX, REFI, REYN, RGCO, RL, RMBL, ROK, RXO, SGHC, SHEN, SHO, SHOP, SMRT, SUN, SWTX, TBLA, TCPC, TECH, TGI, TGNA, TH, THR, TSQ, VERX, VLN, VSH, VSTS, VVV, WIX, WMG, WWW, ZBH, ZVIA
- Post-close: ACIC, ACVA, AE, AEVA, AGO, AHH, AKA, ALEC, ALLO, ALNT, ALTG, AMPH, AMPY, AOSL, APP, APPS, ARC, ASLE, ASPN, ASRT, ASTH, ASYS, ATO, AVIR, AZEK, BARK, BBDC, BCOV, BGSF, BHF, BIRD, BLBD, BLDE, BLNK, BMBL, BNGO, BOOT, BOXL, BRCC, BROS, BYND, CACI, CAPL, CAPR, CDE, CDLX, CDXC, CENT, CF, CHRD, CLNE, CLPT, CMPO, CORZ, CPA, CPAY, CPRX, CSGS, CW, CXT, CXW, DBRG, DCGO, DGII, DHX, DLB, DOX, DUOL, ECOR, ECPG, EE, EGHT, ELUT, ENS, EQIX, ESE, ET, FGI, FLNC, FRGE, FROG, FRPH, FSLY, FWRD, GH, GLAD, GNK, HCAT, HG, HI, HMN, HOOD, HPP, HROW, HUBS, ICUI, INSG, IONQ, JAMF, JOBY, JXN, KAR, KIND, KLIC, KNTK, KRMD, KTOS, KVYO, KW, LB, LESL, LFMD, LNW, LOMA, LSF, LZ, MATV, MCK, METC, MFIC, MGNI, MIRM, MKSI, MLR, MMS, MNST, MODG, MODV, MQ, MRCC, MRVI, MTW, MVIS, NDLS, NN, NNBR, NVEE, NVST, OBDE, ODD, OM, OPAL, OTCM, OXY, PAAS, PACB, PET, PETQ, PFIE, PFMT, PHX, PIII, PNNT, PRI, PSNL, PXLW, QSI, RAMP, RC, RDNT, RDVT, RDW, REPX, RGLD, ROOT, RVMD, RYN, SBLK, SBRA, SEDG, SERA, SEZL, SITM, SKYT, SLNG, SLRC, SONO, SPCE, SRPT, SSSS, STAA, STR, SVCO, TALO, TPL, TPVG, UGI, UGP, UHAL, UPWK, UVV, VATE, VINP, VSAT, VSTA, VTLE, WAY, WBD, WES, WTS, ZD, ZG, ZIP
- Analyst/Investor Events: ASXC, BGSF, FLUX, ITGR, SMID
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, Consumer Credit, DOE Crude Inventories
- Canada: Ivey PMI
- Europe: Manufacturing Production (s.a.) m/m, Halifax House Prices y/y, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate
- Asia: Current Account NSA, New Loans
- Corporate:
- Thursday 08-Aug:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ACDC, AGEN, AUTL, AVAH, AVT, AXGN, BATRA, BETR, BKSY, BKTI, BN, BRAG, CARS, CCOI, CEIX, CHH, CION, CNTY, COLD, COMM, CRNC, CYBR, DCO, DDOG, DNUT, DRIO, ECX, ELAN, EPAM, ERJ, FA, FOLD, FOUR, FWONK, GCMG, GDRX, GERN, GLT, GOCO, GSAT, GSBD, GTHX, GTN, HAE, HBI, HGV, HIMX, HIPO, HYFM, IHRT, INSE, INSM, IRWD, KELYA, KLTR, KOP, LAMR, LBRDK, LFST, LINC, LIND, LLY, LNG, LNZA, LQDT, LTRPA, MDU, MFA, MLM, MOGO, MOND, MUR, NABL, NLCP, NRG, NVMI, NXST, OB, OCGN, PAR, PBH, PCT, PENN, PH, PHAT, PLL, PLUG, PRMW, PRVA, PSBD, PZZA, QBTS, QNST, QRTEA, QSR, RMTI, ROIV, RPRX, SBH, SEE, SGA, SN, SPB, SPH, SRRK, SUP, TARS, TGLS, TKO, TNC, UAA, UHG, ULCC, UP, USFD, VEON, VFF, VITL, VRNA, VST, VTNR, VTRS, WD, WHF, WMS, WRBY, XERS, XFOR, XMTR, XPEL, YETI
- Post-close: ACHR, ACTG, AKAM, ALRM, AMN, AMPL, AMPS, AMPX, ANIK, AORT, APYX, ARLO, ARRY, ARWR, ATER, ATSG, AUID, AVGR, AVPT, AWRE, BAP, BE, BKD, BLFS, BLZE, BRLT, BTMD, BW, CARG, CCSI, CDXS, CENX, CIB, CLSK, CMBM, CNNE, CODX, COLL, CPK, CRNX, CUTR, CYTK, DBX, DEI, DIOD, DOCN, DOCS, DXC, EB, ELF, ETON, EVH, EVLV, EXFY, EXPE, FARO, FIGS, FIVN, FNA, FNKO, FOSL, G, GAU, GDEN, GDOT, GEOS, GEVO, GHLD, GILD, GRND, GRNT, GROV, GRWG, HCI, HEAR, HGBL, HHS, HNST, HQI, HYPR, IDN, IIIV, INDI, INO, INVE, IOVA, IRIX, ISDR, ITI, IVR, JYNT, KRT, LAW, LEGH, LFLY, LGF.A, LPRO, LRFC, MAIN, MAPS, ME, MERC, MITK, MLNK, MNTK, MSDL, MTUS, NATR, NGL, NGVC, NOTV, NRDY, NTRA, NUS, NWSA, OABI, ONL, ONTO, OPRT, OPRX, ORGO, OSS, OTRK, PANL, PARA, PAY, PBI, PBPB, PBR, PDFS, PKST, PLBY, PODD, POWW, PRA, PTCT, PTMN, PUBM, PX, QRHC, QTRX, RCAT, RCEL, RCUS, REZI, RGTI, RKLB, RMAX, RPAY, RWAY, RXT, SEER, SENS, SG, SKIN, SMLP, SMR, SOI, SOLV, SOUN, SRTS, SSP, SST, STEP, SVV, SYNA, TACT, TASK, TBRG, TPIC, TRUP, TTD, TTEC, TTGT, TTWO, TXG, U, UEIC, VCSA, VERI, VIAV, VRRM, WBTN, WEST, YELP
- Analyst/Investor Events: APYX
- Brokerage Conference:
- Raymond James Industrial and Energy Conference
- J.P. Morgan Auto Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Weekly Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- Europe: CPI y/y, Industrial Production m/m
- Asia: CPI y/y, PPI y/y
- Corporate:
- Friday 09-Aug:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ACXP, AIRS, ALTI, AMCX, AMRX, AXL, BRY, EMBC, EVRG, FREY, LEGN, NFE, NKLA, NYC, PGY, ROAD, SHCO, SLVM, SSIC, TLS, TUSK
- Post-close: GETY, HE
- Earnings:
- Economic
- Canada: Employment, Unemployment Rate
- Europe: Manufacturing Production y/y, Industrial Production y/y, CPI y/y, PPI y/y, Industrial Production m/m, Trade Balance
- Corporate:
Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.