TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS
The key macro events this week include the flash PMIs for September on Monday will provide the first look at US/EU economic trends in September, the RBA rate decision early Tuesday morning; the market is looking for rates to stay unchanged, the Riksbank decision early Wednesday morning; the market is looking for a rate cut, the SNB decision early Thursday morning; the market is looking for a rate cut, the Tokyo CPI for September Thursday night, CPIs from France and Spain early Friday morning, and the US PCE for August on Friday; the market is looking for a 20bps cooling in the YoY rate on headline while core ticks up 10bps. This will be the most watched US economic report.
In addition, Japan’s LDP will hold its leadership election on 9/27. The winner will become the country’s next PM. With the FOMC meeting over, the volume of Fed speakers will increase. Investors will listen carefully to see how supportive everyone was of the 50bps move and whether the market is accurate enough to assume another 75bps in cuts.
There will be just a handful of important earnings, including AZO premarket on Tuesday, MU postmarket on Wednesday, ACN, JBL, KMX premarket on Thursday, and COST, MTN postmarket on Thursday. Micron will be the most watched earnings report as there has been some concern regarding the DRAM market price weakness.
Market views
The post-option expiration for the rest of September has very weak seasonality, and we’ll be watching sentiment, which moved into the extreme zone on Thursday and faded off those highs on Friday, and whether it continues to consolidate. There is also a void of major economic or earnings news this week. I will post the SPY, QQQ, and IWM VWAP levels from the Fed announcement on Monday’s First Call, which should be watched if the price declines below, trapping buyers who chased the rate cut euphoria.
Weekend news
- Boeing – the head of the firm’s defense and space business has stepped down, the first major mgmt. change since new CEO Kelly Ortberg took over (WSJ); And the strike shows few signs of ending following first week, with little progress achieved between the two sides
- Intel – a WSJ report late Friday said Qualcomm had approached Intel about a potential takeover. The market seemed skeptical.
- A new NBC national poll out Sunday showed Harris up 5 points nationally over Trump (49-44%). Expect this to remain very tight right to election day.
- Israeli strike in Lebanon on Friday didn’t just take out a senior military commander (Ibrahim Aqil), but an entire class of senior leaders, part of a deliberate plan to eliminate those most critical to the terror group’s ability to fight a war WSJ; Israel and Hezbollah exchange flurry of fire over the weekend as fighting continues to dramatically escalate between the two sides CNN The tension in the Middle East has increased and could be an under-appreciated risk.
The Currency and Commodity weekly notes will be published this afternoon.
Charts we are watching
The following charts show the shorter-term 60-minute and 120-minute time frames, with some exhaustion signals stalling the upside. The daily charts still have potential, but it is not a given that they will move higher. They should be watched around the Fed meeting levels, which if break, could trap some buyers after the first rate cut.
S&P futures 60 minute has support at TDST Setup trend green line at 5689.
The 120 minute time frame moved up in 5 waves with upside exhaustion sell Countdown 13’s. The same TDST support is on this chart too.
On the daily I’m watching the pending sell Setup 9 that could qualify on Monday. The last 3 sell Setup 9’s stalled or pulled back. Often these work well after an impulsive move.
Nasdaq futures 60 minute moved higher in 5 waves with upside exhaustion signals. The TDST support level is at 19,682
This is the 120 minute with a longer time frame going back to the July all time highs. The recent move higher did move up in five waves.
Nasdaq futures daily shows the peak in July with lower highs. Wit the Sequential still in progress it is possible to qualify the sell Countdown 13 and not hit a new high.
US economic data for the week
KEY MARKET SENTIMENT
I believe the sentiment price data issues we had last week with the process of changing data providers are resolved. Thank you for your patience and understanding.
Equity bullish sentiment dropped on Friday after Thursday’s move into the extreme zone. Let’s watch to see if there is some further consolidation.
S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment shows moves into the extreme zone >80% have seen price consolidation/reversals.
Bond bullish sentiment backed off throughout the week despite the Fed rate cut.
Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment holding steady. Dollar price vs sentiment has a big divergence.
Commodity bullish sentiment saw mixed action with Crude nearing the extreme zone while Natural Gas lifted 9 points. Gold is back in the extreme zone at 84%. Gold sentiment is a good example of when a market stays for an extended period in the extreme zone. Sentiment is a condition and not a trigger. That being said, there is a time when it can be a trigger when it gets to either 5% or 95%.
EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS
- Monday 23-Sep:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: UXIN
- Post-close: AIR, RCAT
- Analyst/Investor Events: BRZE, KOD, UTI
- Brokerage Conference:
- J.P. Morgan India Investor Summit
- UBS Taiwan Summit
- RBC Pharmaceutical Development, Manufacturing and Bioprocessing Conference
- Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference
- Berenberg and Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference
- Baader Investment Conference
- BioProcess International Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Manufacturing & Services PMI
- Europe: GDP y/y, Final GDP y/y
- Asia: CPI NSA Y/Y
- Corporate:
- Tuesday 24-Sep:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: AZO
- Post-close: KBH, PRGS, SFIX
- Analyst/Investor Events: GEVO, PHIO, WPM
- Syndicate: Samfine Creation (+SFHG; ~$9M raise)
- Brokerage Conference:
- J.P. Morgan India Investor Summit
- RBC Pharmaceutical Development, Manufacturing and Bioprocessing Conference
- Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference
- Berenberg and Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference
- Baader Investment Conference
- BioProcess International Conference
- Evercore ISI AV/ASA Summit
- 121 Mining & Energy Investment Conference
- RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference
- RBC Global Communications Infrastructure Conference
- Bank of America Financials CEO Conference
- Deutsche Bank American Depositary Receipt Virtual Investor Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: FHFA House Price Index, Consumer Confidence, API Crude Inventories, Redbook Chain Store
- Europe: IFO Business Climate
- Corporate:
- Wednesday 25-Sep:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: CTAS, HUIZ
- Post-close: CNXC, FUL, MU, WS
- Analyst/Investor Events: ARWR, GENK
- Syndicate: FBS Global (+FBGL; ~$11M)
- Brokerage Conference:
- J.P. Morgan India Investor Summit
- Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference
- Berenberg and Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference
- Baader Investment Conference
- BioProcess International Conference
- 121 Mining & Energy Investment Conference
- RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference
- RBC Global Communications Infrastructure Conference
- Bank of America Financials CEO Conference
- Deutsche Bank American Depositary Receipt Virtual Investor Conference
- Credicorp Investor Conference
- EmergingGrowth Conference
- Bernstein Pan European Strategic Decisions Conference
- Arihant Capital Markets Bharat Connect Conference
- Society of Maternal-Fetal Medicine Global Congress
- PDUFA: MRK (KEYTRUDA)
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, New Home Sales, DOE Crude Inventories
- Europe: PPI y/y, Consumer Confidence
- Corporate:
- Thursday 26-Sep:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ACN, ISPR, JBL, KMX, REE, SNX
- Post-close: BB, BTOC, COST, MTN, SCHL
- Analyst/Investor Events: GENK, INTU, LUV, WCC
- Syndicate: BioAge (+BIOA; ~$135M), BKV (+BKV; ~$300M), and Guardian Pharmacy Services (+GRDN; ~$101M)
- Brokerage Conference:
- J.P. Morgan India Investor Summit
- Baader Investment Conference
- BioProcess International Conference
- Bank of America Financials CEO Conference
- Deutsche Bank American Depositary Receipt Virtual Investor Conference
- Bernstein Pan European Strategic Decisions Conference
- Arihant Capital Markets Bharat Connect Conference
- Society of Maternal-Fetal Medicine Global Congress
- Goldman Sachs European Real Estate Equity & Debt Conference
- CIBC Eastern Institution Conference
- Noble Capital Markets Basic Industries Virtual Equity Conference
- Gabelli PFAS Symposium
- PDUFA: KarXT, SNDX (revumenib)
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Durable Orders, Q2’s GDP/GDP Chain Price second revisions, Pending Home Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- Europe: Trade Balance, GfK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales y/y, Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, M3 Money Supply y/y
- Asia: Manufacturing Production NSA Y/Y, CPI Tokyo y/y
- Corporate:
- Friday 27-Sep:
- Corporate:
- Analyst/Investor Events: AQST
- Brokerage Conference:
- Arihant Capital Markets Bharat Connect Conference
- Society of Maternal-Fetal Medicine Global Congress
- ASCO Quality Care Symposium
- CEM Muskoka Capital Conference
- PDUFA: REGN (Dupixent)
- Economic
- US: Core PCE, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Wholesale Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)
- Canada: GDP m/m
- Europe: Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales y/y, Consumer Goods Spending m/m, PPI m/m, Preliminary CPI y/y, GDP y/y, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, PPI y/y, Economic Sentiment Indicator, CPI y/y
- Corporate:
Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.