Fed Chairman passed the “hot potato” to President Trump yesterday as it’s now his turn at the G20. As we all know, President Trump is quite the wildcard as there is no idea what he might say or Tweet after he meets with President Xi of China for dinner Saturday. The best case outcome would be friendly cease fire talk with Trump backing down on increasing tariffs for a six month period and President Xi bending on some of the sticky points China has been reluctant to address. Nothing of substance will come from these meetings as both are not detail oriented thinkers. But the world really needs both sides to come to dinner with the outcome being a forward path of negotiations.
The worst case outcome is one ounce of harsh rhetoric from either side. Just one negative Trump tweet could sink the markets by 5% in the coming week.
A couple of other G20 best case/worst outcomes are with oil production as there are talks scheduled to stabilize the oil markets. MbS from Saudi Arabia will be there as will Putin and if they can announce an oil production cut, crude will bounce by 5%. MbS is going to the G20 with a lot of clouds above him and it could be very uncomfortable with any interaction with Trump, Putin, and Turkey’s Erdogan.
The markets bounced yesterday and are giving back some as risks remain high headed into the weekend and with more Trump/Mueller noise hitting the tape today. My current bias is slightly bullish expecting a little further upside from here (lower high bounce) but knowing the risks remain elevated using a full stop on this call at S&P 500 2635-2625 zone.
US EQUITY MARKETS
S&P bullish sentiment is at 40% a large increase day over day
S&P 500 Index daily
S&P 500 Index 60 minute tactical time frame
Nasdaq 100 Index bullish sentiment is at 40% too
Nasdaq 100 Index daily
Nasdaq 100 Index 60 minute tactical time frame
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily
Russell 2000 IWM ETF daily
Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas Sheet. Equity ideas both long and short with one week to six weeks average holding period. Sizing at inception is either 2.5% or 5% of AUM with stops set between 5%-10%.
STOPPED OUT OF TWTR SHORT -7%, ADDED LONG: FEYE 5%, GOOGL 2.5% WEIGHT. REMOVED SHORTS: CRM -5%, PFE -3% (NOT WORKING) ADDED SHORT: DIS 2.5% WEIGHT
STOCKS I AM WATCHING TODAY
Twitter broke 30 today briefly and I was stopped out of a 2.5% sized position
Alphabet looks like this could make a move over 1100 and the 50 day. Adding long 2.5% size with 7% stop
Fire Eye could breakout above 20 and has a low Countdown only on day 5 of 13. Took it back up to 5% weight with 10% stop.
Disney with upside Countdown 13. Playing for a move back down to 110 or lower. 2.5% sized short with 5% stop
SECTOR FOCUS – ENERGY
XLE Energy ETF did get the Countdown 13 and it has triggered ahead of the other major energy ETF’s
XOP Oil and Gas Exploration – still has work to do
OIH Oil Service ETF
Euro Stoxx 50 bullish sentiment is at 29% and also trying to increase
Euro Stoxx 50 Index daily
German DAX Index daily
UK FTSE 100 Index bullish sentiment is at 40%
UK FTSE 100 Index daily
US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 80% and remains extreme but off highs over 90%
US Dollar Index daily with upside DeMark Sequential Countdown 13
Euro bullish sentiment is at 20% and increasing
Euro Spot daily sideways and needs one more push lower for downside Countdown 13
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment is at 22%
British Pound Sterling daily
Chinese Yuan daily
Nikkei Index has a little potential to move up further. It’s a tricky wave set up
Shanghai Composite Index doesn’t look like they expect a deal
FXI Hong Kong China ETF very much sideways.
US BOND MARKET
Bond bullish sentiment is at 71% and remains elevated but not extreme
US 10 Year Yield could see lower yields with this downside Countdown
US 30 Year Yield doesn’t have same Countdown
US Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
IEF 7-10 Year Bond ETF could correlate with 10 Year and move higher
Gold bullish sentiment is at 20% and basically still in this lower range
GLD Gold ETF daily
GDX Gold Miners ETF daily
Bloomberg Automated Technical Pattern Recognition Screens
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DEMARK SCREENS – Daily Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals for November
Daily/Weekly DeMark upside (sell signals) /downside (buy signals) exhaustion Countdown Sequential and Combo “13’s updated daily. Currently we are only screening the S&P 500 universe and daily in this beta stage.
The DeMark Indicators are designed to assist the user with buying into weakness and selling into strength to anticipate trend exhaustion. Selling into a rally and buying into a decline often afford the opportunity to exit a trade without too serious a loss if wrong. If you would like more detailed information on the DeMark Indicators, please email us.