It’s widely known the “off limits” topics at the family Thanksgiving table are politics and religion. I abide by these rules. This year add Bitcoin as last year it was a topic of “So and so, is making all sorts of money in Bitcoin… What do you think?”
1. Politics: The Fed is getting some serious political backlash from President Trump as he is blaming the Fed raising rates for the recent stock market selloff. (Narrator) The Fed has raised rates gradually 25 bps eight times starting in December 2015. The Fed Funds Rate is only at 2.25% and it’s now a “policy mistake” according to people who have only an interest in the stock market going up. The markets are bouncing today after the Fed “leaked” a story with a little softening tone. “The Federal Reserve is starting to consider at least a pause to its gradual monetary tightening and could end its cycle of interest rate hikes as early as the spring, MNI reports, citing senior people at the Fed they didn’t identify.” The Fed has it’s own way of playing politics too.
2. Religion: I’ve said “Oh my God” (and some stronger words) more this week than ever in my life. Upgrading our website that crashed due to too much traffic and then having people get locked out and then having to do doing another major server upgrade a day later was more than expected. We’re sorting it out.
3. Bitcoin: Bitcoin is back down to a year ago levels so all that FOMO envy you had last Thanksgiving is long gone. It’s down 77% off the December highs too yet people still believe as witnessed by CNBC continuing to roll out people who offer random reasons why people should buy it and of course they still have unrealistic upside price targets.
I’ll be off tomorrow for Thanksgiving and back on Friday. From the team here at Hedge Fund Telemetry we are very thankful for all the continued support from our clients. We will also send out updates with the progress with our server upgrades. Again, we’ll get it sorted out. Thanks for your patience.
US EQUITY MARKETS
S&P bullish sentiment now at 8% and this is very oversold. Fairly easy to get a bounce at these levels.
S&P 500 daily bounced off the DeMark TDST green dotted line (this line started with price flip of the recent upside green Setup and works as support) Breaking it would be significant
S&P 500 60 minute tactical moved lower than wave 1 (yellow 1) and is in wave 3 down
Nasdaq bullish sentiment is also at 8%
Nasdaq 100 daily did get into wave 3 although the price objective is still pretty far away. A decent bounce today but not enough to repair the recent damage
Nasdaq 100 60 minute tactical is in the 5th wave down and still has a red Sequential Countdown in progress.
Dow Jones Industrial Average also stopped at the TDST and is making a small bounce
Russell 2000 IWM ETF same story with TDST. 145 is the clear line int the sand
TRADE IDEAS SHEET
TRADE IDEAS SHEET – COVERED TIF +3.8% GAIN, ADDING 2.5% SHORT TSLA. HOLDING OFF ON OTHER IDEAS FOR NOW
FOCUS OF THE DAY – Spreads continue to widen and financial conditions continue to tighten
Credit spreads on a daily time frame still have a little further widening ahead despite the Combo 13 today
Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index on a long term weekly look continues to show stress (liquidity etc) yet still has further to go to reach the 2009 and 2016 levels
STOCKS I AM WATCHING TODAY
Tesla weekly is nearing the the high end of the range again. I recently covered a short at 360 and want to put this back on using a 365 stop.
Tiffany is being covered today on the Trade Ideas sheet due to the downside Countdown 13 today.
SECTOR FOCUS – PPO MONITOR
The PPO Monitor is a proprietary monitor developed to force rank Indexes, Sectors, and Stocks. It ranks top down by strongest to weakest by percentage above/below the 50 day moving average. Shorter term signals can be seen when the 10 and 20 day moving averages turn up (green) or down (red) which often are followed by the 50 day moving average. This is useful to watch for historically overbought/oversold percentage above/below the 50 day moving average. It is non correlated with the DeMark Indicators however we have found upside/downside exhaustion signals often occur when something rises to the top or drifts to the bottom of the monitor – increasing the timing aspect. We share this monitor with clients with Bloomberg Terminals. An added feature is that each market/ETF can be expanded with each component force ranked in the same way. A couple other features include price deviation from intraday VWAP (useful for intraday reversals) and new 20 day highs/lows on right side. Please inquire if you would like to be permissioned to use the PPO Monitor.
Today’s highlights: Strong day with weakest sectors of late bouncing the most. Notice the ITB Homebuilding ETF in the middle of the sheet now. It was on the bottom as the most oversold and it recently had a downside DeMark exhaustion Countdown 13 and I added it to the Trade Ideas Sheet as a long. It’s now over the 10 and 20 day moving average which is a good sign. Gold Miners ETF GDX is on the top 3.58% above the 50 day but there is now an upside DeMark Countdown that could limit upside potential
ITB with the % above the 50 day (upper) and % above the 20 day (lower) indicators. It was a good sign to see this move quickly start to turn up on the lower 20 day followed by the 50 day narrowing to the moving average. I expect this to continue higher
Gold Miners ETF GDX
Euro Stoxx 50 holding support and should get the green Setup tomorow
US Dollar Index
Bitcoin breaking support at 6000 crushed some of the holdouts. The potential for lower prices will increase if this can start a downside Countdown.
Bond bullish sentiment is at 75% and in the elevated zone where previous tops have occurred
S&P 500 Members/Absolute Price Performance and Relative Price Performance vs S&P 500 and Sector ETF’s. ETF’s vs Index Sectors. Pair Trades. Long side is first symbol, short side is second symbol. If you would like a PDF from Bloomberg with full details of how this is formulated, please email. We will be doing a webinar in the coming weeks specifically on this system
DEMARK SCREENS – Daily, Weekly, Monthly Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals for November
Daily/Weekly DeMark upside/downside exhaustion signals (Sequential and Combo) updated daily. This will all be on the site soon updated at the open of each day.