CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES WEEK ENDING 01/22/2021

by | Jan 27, 2021

Crude: -9.910M

Cushing: -2.281M

Gasoline: 2.470M

Distillates: -0.815M

Fantastic report this week. This current draw puts us at just 5% above the 5-year average, we have been around 8-11%. Imports were down 1M bpd and exports were up almost 1M bpd. We had another solid Cushing draw. Refinery utilization was 81.7%, about 1/2 a percent down from last week, but still over 80%, which is strong, given the time of year and demand situation. States are starting to open up again, gyms, schools, museums, etc, which should be strong for domestic gasoline demand in the weeks ahead. Another propane draw, though not quite as large, but still solid at -2.2M. That distillate draw, though small, puts us down only 1.2% from the same period last year. Gasoline, although a build puts us right in line this same period for the last 5 years. Total products supplied (or consumed) which is implied demand is up to 19 M bpd, the third week in a row for an increase, which changes the trend. This is positive for oil and oil equities, particularly refiners and NGL producers.

EIA PETROLEUM INVENTORIES VS INVENTORIES FOR THE SAME WEEK-ENDING IN PRIOR YEARS

Source: The Fundamental angle.

REFINERY UTILIZATION

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

TOTAL COMMERCIAL CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES — CUSHING, OK

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

CRUDE BALANCE VS INVENTORIES

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

GASOLINE BALANCE VS INVENTORIES

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

DISTILLATE BALANCE VS INVENTORIES

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

TOTAL PRODUCTS CONSUMED

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

EIA

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.7 million barrels per day during the week ending
January 22, 2021 which was 39,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 81.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased
last week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,
averaging 4.5 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.1 million barrels per day last week, which decreased by 1.0 million
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 5.7 million barrels per day, 13.9% less than the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 465,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 474,000 barrels per
day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
decreased by 9.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 476.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five-year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both
increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are
about 8% above the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories
decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five-year average for this
time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 11.7 million barrels last
week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.0 million barrels a day, down
by 4.4% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 7.7 million barrels a day, down by 9.5% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks,
down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 28.2%
compared with the same four-week period last year.

FULL REPORT HERE