The OPEC JMMC meeting ended today with no recommendation. Tomorrow is the Ministerial meeting where they will make a decision on whether to increase and by how much.
Considering that refineries were still down from the Texas storm, this is not a terrible report. A build in crude stocks was expected, as well as a product drain. Even with the build, crude oil stocks are still inline with this same week in the five prior years. Refineries were operating at 56%, compared to 83.1% before the storm. Cushing had a very small build (the actual WTI contract). Also accounting for half of the build, were imports – higher than last week by 11.84M barrels, whereas exports were virtually unchanged from last week at +259K barrels. Total products supplied (implied demand) stood at 19.6 M BPD, consistent with the week prior to the storm, meaning this build is not a demand issue. Propane inventories, another healthy draw of 2.2M barrels last week putting us 17% below the five-year average for this time of year. This is going to take a few weeks to sort itself out as refineries come back online, by mid-March. Overall this is very supportive for refining stocks and NGL producers.
EIA INVENTORIES VS INVENTORIES FOR THE SAME WEEK ENDING IN PRIOR YEARS
REFINERY UTILIZATION -you can see PADD 2 & 3 which includes TEXAS and ther Midwest are the worst hit
TOTAL COMMERCIAL CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES — CUSHING, OK
CRUDE BALANCE VS INVENTORIES
GASOLINE BALANCE VS INVENTORIES
DISTILLATE BALANCE VS INVENTORIES
TOTAL PRODUCTS CONSUMED -ticking back up after the hit last week due to the storm
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 9.9 million barrels per day during the week ending
February 26, 2021, which was 2.3 million barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 56.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased
last week, averaging 8.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,
averaging 2.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.7 million
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 5.7 million barrels per day, 12.8% less than the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 605,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 321,000 barrels per
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
increased by 21.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 484.6 million barrels, U.S. crude
oil inventories are about 3% above the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor
gasoline inventories decreased by 13.6 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both
decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 9.7 million barrels last week and are
about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories
decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are about 17% below the five-year average for this
time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels a day, down
by 4.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 7.9 million barrels a day, down by 11.8% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up
by 5.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 24.2% compared
with the same four-week period last year.
LINK TO FULL REPORT HERE
DAILY SENTIMENT INDEX