CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES WEEK ENDING 12/25/2020

by | Dec 30, 2020

Crude: -6.065M

Cushing: 0.027M

Gasoline: -1.192M

Distillates: 3.095M

Solid report this week. We did have a distillate build, but for this time of year, I am not too concerned about it, as we are inline with inventories this same week over the past 5 years. Refinery utilization (throughput) was back up to 79.4% from 78% last week and we still had an inventory draw, gasoline implied demand has improved greatly over the past two weeks, which is an encouraging sign. Imports were up ever so slightly at 1.6M for the week, and exports up 3.68M and we had a healthy -6.065M draw leaving us 11% above the 5 year average. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.1 million barrels a day, down by 6.4% from the same period last year, a dramatic improvement. Cushing has been basically flat over the last two weeks, we are still on the high end for this time of year, that said we should be drawing more in the spring when refiners switch over to make summer grade gasoline.

Source: The Fundamental angle

US petroleum inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Source: UBS

US oil demand in mbpd (EIA)-Gasoline ticking up

Source: UBS

Refinery Utilization by PADD

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

US Crude Oil Imports and Exports

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

Crude Oil Cushing Inventories

Source: Oil Sands, EIA

Crude Balance vs Inventories

EIA

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.3 million barrels per day during the week ending
December 25, 2020 which was 273,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 79.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased
last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week,
averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 238,000 barrels
per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7
million barrels per day, 14.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor
gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged 601,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 619,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
decreased by 6.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 493.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 1% above the five-year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components
inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last
week and are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene
inventories decreased by 6.4 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year
average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 14.9 million
barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.1 million barrels a day, down
by 6.4% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 7.9 million barrels a day, down by 13.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up
by 0.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 31.8% compared
with the same four-week period last year.

FULL REPORT HERE