The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market’s performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).
NOBODY ON CNBC, TWITTER, RYAN DETRICK (the guy on Twitter who always has a bullish study) IS MENTIONING THE SUPER BOWL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR. The Rams are an NFC team so if they win the market will be up but if the Patriots win since they are an AFC team the market will be down. The Patriots are favored by 2.5 points. Are people that superstitious this year?
Below I lay out the daily and weekly charts for the S&P and Nasdaq 100 which suggests a better bet is on the Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
I’m taking Monday off as I am participating at the Real Vision live conference in NYC “The Workshop” There might be some tix left so let me know if you are interested. I’ll be back on the desk Tuesday.
US EQUITY MARKETS
S&P bullish sentiment is at 70%
S&P 500 Index daily stretched and maybe an A-B-C pattern. I will discuss more next week.
S&P 500 Index weekly with wave 2 of 5 down now with downside wave 3 price objective of 2099
RSP S&P Equal weight ETF Combo 13 today
Nasdaq 100 Index bullish sentiment is at 66%
Nasdaq 100 Index daily could be in a A-B-C pattern vs a 5 wave up pattern. I’ll discuss next week
Nasdaq 100 Index weekly with wave 2 now with downside wave 3 price objective of 5052
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily still lifting
Russell 2000 IWM ETF daily Combo 13 today
Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas Sheet. Equity ideas both long and short with one week to six weeks average holding period. Sizing at inception is either 2.5% or 5% of AUM with stops set between 5%-10%. REMOVED: ITY SHORT -4.6%, ADDED SHORT 2.5% SIZED: C, AMD, IYR, AAPL
FOCUS OF THE DAY – US Unemployment Rate moving up and Financial Conditions bounce could be over
US Unemployment Rate moved up to 4.00% today and now is on month 2 of 9 with upside green Setup.
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index with both Combo and Sequential Countdown 13’s. The worked pretty well near some tops and bottoms in the past
Some custom indexes getting tired
FANG custom index on day 9 of 13 with upside Countdown.
Largest 5 SPX names custom index stalling after bouncing 20% and did not get over December high
Largest 35 SPX names ex the Top 5. Still could move a little more but now an A-B-C pattern and also did no get above December high
XLE Energy still looks good long
OIH Oil Service still looks good long
Transports keep on trucking higher. I’m covering since I’m short airlines
IYR Reit ETF with Combo 13 short small 2.5% size
Three new short ideas
Apple has bounced with poor numbers and I expect it to fade from here. Small short 2.5%
AMD hit the wave 3 price objective and short small here 2.5% size
Citi could top out here. Shorting 2.5% size
US BOND MARKET
Bond bullish sentiment is at 82% now in the extreme zone over 80%
US 10 Year Yield did not follow through lower. With sentiment so high it’s a tricky set up here
IEF ETF 7-10 year bond should top here
US Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF should top out here
TLT US 20 year + ETF has really confused me of late
Gold bullish sentiment is at 80% and now in the extreme zone.
GLD Gold ETF daily extended but still could complete upside Countdown. Passed the point where it’s a good risk reward buy area
GDX Gold Miners ETF daily should continue pullback
DEMARK SCREENS – Daily Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals for January
Daily/Weekly DeMark upside (sell signals) /downside (buy signals) exhaustion Countdown Sequential and Combo “13’s updated daily. Currently we are only screening the S&P 500 universe and daily in this beta stage. INTERESTING HOW MORE SELL SIGNALS HAPPENING TOWARDS END OF MONTH AND MANY IN REITS
The DeMark Indicators are designed to assist the user with buying into weakness and selling into strength to anticipate trend exhaustion. Selling into a rally and buying into a decline often afford the opportunity to exit a trade without too serious a loss if wrong. If you would like more detailed information on the DeMark Indicators, please email us.