The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator

Thomas Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry info@hedgefundtelemetry.com

2/1/2019

The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market’s performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market). 

NOBODY ON CNBC, TWITTER, RYAN DETRICK (the guy on Twitter who always has a bullish study) IS MENTIONING THE SUPER BOWL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR. The Rams are an NFC team so if they win the market will be up but if the Patriots win since they are an AFC team the market will be down.   The Patriots are favored by 2.5 points.  Are people that superstitious this year?

Below I lay out the daily and weekly charts for the S&P and Nasdaq 100 which suggests a better bet is on the Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots.  

I’m taking Monday off as I am participating at the Real Vision live conference in NYC “The Workshop”   There might be some tix left so let me know if you are interested.  I’ll be back on the desk Tuesday.  

US EQUITY MARKETS

S&P bullish sentiment is at 70%

 

S&P 500 Index daily stretched and maybe an A-B-C pattern.  I will discuss more next week.  

S&P 500 Index weekly with wave 2 of 5 down now with downside wave 3 price objective of 2099

RSP S&P Equal weight ETF Combo 13 today 

Nasdaq 100 Index bullish sentiment is at 66%

Nasdaq 100 Index daily could be in a A-B-C pattern vs a 5 wave up pattern.  I’ll discuss next week

Nasdaq 100 Index weekly with wave 2 now with downside wave 3 price objective of 5052

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily still lifting

Russell 2000 IWM ETF daily Combo 13 today

TRADE IDEAS

Hedge Fund Telemetry Trade Ideas Sheet.  Equity ideas both long and short with one week to six weeks average holding period.  Sizing at inception is either 2.5% or 5% of AUM with stops set between 5%-10%.  REMOVED:  ITY SHORT -4.6%, ADDED SHORT 2.5% SIZED:  C, AMD, IYR, AAPL  

FOCUS OF THE DAY – US Unemployment Rate moving up and Financial Conditions bounce could be over

US Unemployment Rate moved up to 4.00% today and now is on month 2 of 9 with upside green Setup.  

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index with both Combo and Sequential Countdown 13’s.  The worked pretty well near some tops and bottoms in the past

Some custom indexes getting tired

FANG custom index on day 9 of 13 with upside Countdown.  

Largest 5 SPX names custom index stalling after bouncing 20% and did not get over December high

Largest 35 SPX names ex the Top 5.  Still could move a little more but now an A-B-C pattern and also did no get above December high

VARIOUS SECTORS

XLE Energy still looks good long

OIH Oil Service still looks good long

Transports keep on trucking higher.  I’m covering since I’m short airlines

IYR Reit ETF with Combo 13 short small 2.5% size

Three new short ideas

Apple has bounced with poor numbers and I expect it to fade from here.  Small short 2.5% 

AMD hit the wave 3 price objective and short small here 2.5% size

Citi could top out here.  Shorting 2.5% size

US BOND MARKET

Bond bullish sentiment is at 82% now in the extreme zone over 80%

US 10 Year Yield did not follow through lower.  With sentiment so high it’s a tricky set up here

IEF ETF 7-10 year bond should top here

US Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF should top out here

TLT US 20 year + ETF has really confused me of late

GOLD 

Gold bullish sentiment is at 80% and now in the extreme zone.  

GLD Gold ETF daily extended but still could complete upside Countdown.  Passed the point where it’s a good risk reward buy area

GDX Gold Miners ETF daily should continue pullback

DEMARK SCREENS – Daily Upside/Downside Exhaustion Signals for January

Daily/Weekly DeMark upside (sell signals) /downside (buy signals) exhaustion Countdown Sequential and Combo “13’s updated daily.  Currently we are only screening the S&P 500 universe and daily in this beta stage.   INTERESTING HOW MORE SELL SIGNALS HAPPENING TOWARDS END OF MONTH AND MANY IN REITS

 

The DeMark Indicators are designed to assist the user with buying into weakness and selling into strength to anticipate trend exhaustion. Selling into a rally and buying into a decline often afford the opportunity to exit a trade without too serious a loss if wrong.  If you would like more detailed information on the DeMark Indicators, please email us.  

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