- S&P and Nasdaq futures up 0.1% in Tuesday morning trading, well off best pre-market levels. Comes after US equities sold off on Monday with the Nasdaq 100 down 3%, the biggest decline in six weeks. AI complex the big drag with NVDA losing nearly $600B in market value. Rotations to staples, banks, healthcare and even to other tech names. Treasuries weaker with rates up 1-2bps after a safe haven rally on Monday. Dollar index up 0.6% on latest tariff headlines. Gold up 0.3%. Bitcoin up 0.4%. WTI crude up 0.7%.
- Market trying to bounce as Monday’s DeepSeek upheaval narrative gets dialed back a bit. Outside of AI, tariffs continue to dominate the headlines. Trump talked about a global tariff rate much bigger than the 2.5% recently flagged by Treasury Secretary Bessent. Trump promised tariffs on semis, pharma, steel, copper and aluminum, while also threatening Canada and Mexico over auto production.
- SAP beat but FY25 guide a bit below at midpoint. RTX Q4 FCF, FY revenue light. BA loss wider than expected, announced portfolio review. LMT Q4 results missed, FY EPS guide light. RCL beat and raised FY EPS, net yields guidance, highlighting accelerating bookings. GM beat and guided FY ahead with China a bright spot. KMB margins weakness offset better organic growth, dividend increase. NUE had a big Q4 beat but Q1 guide seemed to underwhelm. SYF FY revenue guide missed, flagged selective consumer spend. GGG missed and flagged slower demand across many end markets. WAL beat with help from better fee income. Outside of earnings, LW holder Jana said it strong support for significant board and leadership change. JBLU soft earnings and guidance down 10% in premarket.
- Durable goods orders, Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing on the US economic calendar this morning. Treasury also selling $44B of 7-year notes this afternoon.
- Key Upgrades/Downgrades: Victoria’s Secret upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays. Cisco Systems upgraded to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane. Affirm Holdings upgraded to neutral from sell at Compass Point. Ciena upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan. Advanced Micro Devices downgraded to hold from buy at Melius Research – target $129. Autodesk upgraded to outperform from neutral at Mizuho Securities USA.
market snapshot
economic reports today
premarket trading
Watch the premarket vwap levels vs price. For example NVDA VWAP is 122.99 vs 121.43 last
US MARKET SENTIMENT
S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment had deep declines but are above the 50% midpoint majority level. A lower high potential is something I’ve been discussing and this could be happening. Sentiment on the recent move lower did not get oversold.
Bond bullish sentiment was up strong but still has work to get to 50% midpoint level.
Currency bullish sentiment had US Dollar down again testing the 50% midpoint level. Bitcoin dropped too but remains over the 20 day moving average of bullish sentiment.
Commodity bullish sentiment saw declines across the board. I need to check Nat Gas data.
US MARKETS
S&P futures 60-minute tactical time frame with bounce possibly a corrective lower high wave 2 of 5 with a potential downside wave 3 price objective of 5856 that will qualify if yesterday’s closing low is exceeded. The Sequential on hour bar 12 of 13, to qualify would need to close under the close of the 8th red bar which is near yesterday’s low.
S&P futures daily with a tepid bounce this morning. A move over the Sunday night high open (yesterday’s bar) is needed to prove some stability. The current bar shows price trading below high and opening price.
Nasdaq 100 60-minute tactical time frame with two wave patterns. Upside: Bounce was wave 1 of 5 with this pullback a corrective higher low wave 2 of 5 with a potential wave 3 price objective if overnight highs are exceeded of 21,713
Nasdaq 100 futures daily moved yesterday early down to the recent lows and bounced. Today bar shows trading below opening a concern.
Extra charts we’re watching
US Dollar Index daily bouncing strong today with downside Setup on day 6 of 9. I am unsure the downside Setup 9 will complete as today is higher than day 5 close which day 9 closing price needs to be below to qualify
US 10-Year Yield bouncing this morning. A lot will matter tomorrow with rates after the Fed which is expected to not cut but Powell’s comments will be in focus.
Bitcoin Daily continues to chop sideways with both upside and downside wave pattern potential.
DeMark Observations – Euro Stoxx 600
