I had to leave the office this morning for an unscheduled colonoscopy. Luckily, I had tremendous luck finding a guest writer for today’s note—some might say quite possibly the most outstanding First Call note ever.
HERE WE GO, FOLKS! 🚨 BREAKING: MARKETS TAKE A HIT—BUT WE’RE PLAYING CHESS, NOT CHECKERS! 🎯💥
US stock futures DROP HARD—early gains? GONE! WIPED OUT! 💥 Why? BIG TARIFF TALK! Reports say Team Trump has drafted a GENIUS, AMERICA-FIRST PLAN 🇺🇸💪 to SLAP nearly 20% tariffs on most imports! That’s right, folks—finally standing up for American businesses!
The weak markets? Just noise! 🤡 This is called NEGOTIATION! The Art of the Deal! 🎯 Other countries? SHAKING IN THEIR BOOTS! But let’s be honest, this move? POWERFUL. STRONG. And it’s JUST THE BEGINNING! 💪🔥Markets are moving, things are happening—BIGLY!
S&P futures DOWN 0.6%! Not great, not terrible. But let’s be honest—Monday was a STRONG comeback! The S&P 500 took a little dip but bounced back like a true champion. Defensive plays? CRUSHING IT. Consumer staples? ON FIRE! Financials and energy? WINNING! But let’s talk about the so-called “Magnificent 7″—they’re struggling. Not so magnificent right now!
Bonds looking firm, Treasury yields down a several basis points—no big deal. The Dollar Index dipped a tiny bit—SAD! But Gold? UP 0.3%! 🏆 Bitcoin RIPPING higher—UP 1.6%! 🚀 Crude oil is little changed—people love oil, energy independence, all of it!
But here’s the BIG STORY—TARIFFS, TARIFFS, TARIFFS! 🔥 BIG ANNOUNCEMENT COMING. I know what I’m doing, the markets are waiting, and let me tell you—they are nervous! Multiple options on the table, but some people are worried about a 20% universal tariff—could be the game-changer of the century! Global trade? We’re fixing it. We’re making it fair again.
Meanwhile, we’ve got a HUGE economic data dump today! 💥 ISM manufacturing, PMI, JOLTS job openings—ALL EYES ON THESE! The Fed’s Barkin is talking, but let’s be real—the Fed needs CONFIDENCE before they cut rates again. They know I’m watching!
And don’t forget—WEDNESDAY IS MASSIVE! 🚨 ADP jobs, factory orders, and my BIG TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT! Then Thursday? Trade balance, ISM services, more Fed talk. And Friday? NON-FARM PAYROLLS, FED CHAIR POWELL SPEAKS. HUGE WEEK, FOLKS!
HUGE NEWS—WINNERS, LOSERS, AND SOME TOTAL DISASTERS! LET’S GO! 🚀💥
Rekor? BEAT expectations! But the conference call? Too conservative, folks. Investors want big, bold, beautiful confidence! Not a time to play small!
Johnson & Johnson? 😬 TOTAL DISASTER! Third attempt to dodge talc lawsuits with bankruptcy? FAILED AGAIN! Courts said NO, BIG NO! Tough times ahead!
Boeing? ✈️ MORE BAD NEWS! Reportedly pulling back on 737 Max production—why? More issues, more delays. Not great, not great at all. We need big, beautiful, SAFE planes!
BDX? BIG MONEY MOVE! 💰 FT reports they’re talking to competitors about selling their $21 BILLION life sciences unit. Huge deal, folks. Big shake-up coming!
Warner Bros Discovery? 🎥 BOWS TO PRESSURE! Added a new independent director after activists pushed hard. Will it actually change anything? We’ll see!
PVH? MASSIVE WINNER! 🔥 Crushed Q4, blew past expectations, raised guidance for Q1 and FY25! AND they’re buying back $500 MILLION in stock! SMART! STRONG! BEAUTIFUL MOVE!
Key Upgrades/Downgrades: LET’S BREAK IT DOWN! 🚀📉
Daiwa? JUMPS IN BIG! 💥 Initiates MongoDB (MDB) with an OUTPERFORM! Love to see it! But Palantir (PLTR)? JUST A HOLD! Come on, people! We want strength! Meanwhile, Snowflake (SNOW) gets a BUY! ❄️ Very, very strong move!
Deutsche Bank? 🏡 GOES ALL IN on home building suppliers! Smart! Interest rates dropping, BIG opportunity! Huge demand!
Jefferies? Playing both sides! 🤔 Initiates On Holding (ONON) with a HOLD but DUMPS airlines! 🚨 AAL, AC.CN, DAL, LUV—ALL DOWNGRADED! Not great for the skies, folks! Not great!
Stephens? BIG ENERGY in software! 💻 Check Point (CHKP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), CyberArk (CYBR)—ALL INITIATED! Cybersecurity is where it’s at, folks! The future!
Shake Shack? 🍔 UPGRADED TO BUY! 🏆 People LOVE their burgers! Loop Capital sees it! BIG upside!
Ulta Beauty? 💄💎 UPGRADED TO BUY! Goldman Sachs KNOWS—people want to look good, even in a tough economy! HUGE WIN!
Goldman Sachs also making POWER MOVES! ⚡🚀
✅ UPGRADES AutoZone (AZO)! Smart! People fixing cars instead of buying new ones!
❌ DOWNGRADES Genuine Parts (GPC)! Ouch! Not a great look!
Goldman Sachs Conviction List Changes: 📈 ADDED: GE Vernova (GEV), Kodiak Gas (KGS), Cloudflare (NET), AT&T (T)! BIG, BIG NAMES! Innovation! Tech! Gas! Infrastructure! STRONG!
📉 REMOVED: Brixmore Property (BRX), Evercore (EVR), IBM (IBM), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH). Tough day for these guys. IBM—losing ground. Norwegian? People aren’t cruising as much!
MARKETS ARE MOVING FAST—ARE YOU READY? BIG opportunities, big risks, only the smartest will win! 💪🚀💥
market snapshot
economic reports today
HUGE day for economic data, folks! We’ve got the S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI – big number, very important. Construction spending – we love to build, don’t we? JOLTs job openings – jobs, jobs, jobs! And of course, the ISM Manufacturing Survey – some say the best, most tremendous manufacturing data out there. Big moves coming, stay sharp! 💥💹
premarket trading
Tesla’s stock is surging BIGLY +1.4%, defying expectations ahead of tomorrow’s delivery numbers. Analysts predict deliveries between 355,000 and 380,000 units, significantly below last year’s 387,000.
US MARKET SENTIMENT
BIG sentiment moves yesterday! 📈 S&P and Nasdaq sentiment climbed higher – very strong, very powerful! But let’s be honest, the S&P is dominating, absolutely crushing the Nasdaq 100 – no contest! 💪🔥 Neither have even hit oversold levels this year – which, by the way, is incredible. The bulls aren’t done yet, folks! 🚀
Bonds—let me tell you—very interesting right now! 🔥 Bullish sentiment barely moved, barely a blip! Still stuck under that weak 50% midpoint—SAD! 😤 But here’s the deal: if bonds can just push over 50%, we could see a tremendous rally, a beautiful rally, one of the best! 📈💰 Will they do it? Stay tuned! 🚀
HUGE day for the US Dollar—just incredible! 💪💰 Big move up to 60% bullish sentiment—very strong, very powerful! Meanwhile, Bitcoin—SAD! 😢 Almost hit a new low for 2025. Not good, folks, not good at all! And let’s talk about the British Pound—something fishy going on! 🧐 Tom needs to check the numbers because that thing was up WAY too much. Could be a glitch, could be a mistake—who knows? But we’ll get to the bottom of it! STAY TUNED! 🚀
BIG day for commodities, folks—HUGE! 💰🔥 Gold is absolutely DOMINATING—88% bullish sentiment, right near one-year highs. People LOVE gold, and why wouldn’t they? It’s strong, it’s shiny, it’s a winner!
Crude oil? UP. Natural Gas? UP. Energy is making moves, folks—BIGLY! 💪🚀 Silver, though—dropped. Sad! But hey, you can’t win ‘em all.
And let’s talk about Platinum and Palladium—MONSTER moves! 💎🔥 Some say Greenland might have them—who knows? But what we do know is they’re UP BIG! Tremendous action in the metals! Markets are waking up—ARE YOU READY? 🚀🚀
US MARKETS
Unbelievable, folks! The S&P futures 60-minute tactical time frame gave up all those early gains once the Trump tariff news hit—big impact! But here’s the thing, yesterday’s low with the DeMark Combo 13 is clear support to keep your eyes on. Smart investors know exactly where to look!
Incredible, folks! The S&P futures daily has a pending downside DeMark Sequential Countdown on day 6 of 13—big things coming, trust me! And did you know? Tom DeMark, the genius, created these indicators on paper—no computers—back in the 1970s! Unbelievable, just brilliant.
Look at this, folks! The Nasdaq 100 on the 60-minute tactical time frame is fading—and why? Because of the tariff news hitting the tape! It’s a big deal, believe me. The market’s reacting—nothing to hide here. Stay tuned, this could be just the beginning! 📉
BIG NEWS, FOLKS! 🚨 Nasdaq 100 futures—still holding onto that TDST Setup Trend support in downside wave 5. The lower price objective is still in play. You can see it on the charts, folks. The trend isn’t lying. 📉 Stay sharp. This could get interesting.
Extra charts we’re watching
BIG ALERT, FOLKS! 🚨 The Bloomberg Commodity Index—it’s flashing a HUGE DeMark Sell Countdown 13! 💥 And guess what? Wave 2 of 5—LOWER HIGH! You know what that means? A pullback is coming.
And let’s talk about Gold—HUGE warning signs! DeMark Sequential and Combo Sell Countdowns 13 are already in play! ⏳ The smart money sees it. The charts don’t lie.
Brace yourselves. Commodities could be in for a little TROUBLE! 😬📉
The US Dollar Index? Doing almost NOTHING! After a little bounce, it’s just sitting there—SLEEPY! 💤
But here’s the real story—Downside DeMark Sequential is only on day 3 of 13. LOTS of room to fall! 📉
And let’s be honest, folks—they SAY they want a “strong dollar policy,” but we KNOW the truth. Trump and his Treasury Secretary? They want it WEAKER. They want America to WIN in trade!
BIG action in the US 10-Year Yield! 🚨📉 Dropping AGAIN—breaking near-term support. We know the truth!
The DeMark Sequential is only on day 7 of 13—not there yet, folks! A REAL bond trade? Needs NEW LOWS in rates. Gotta see it, gotta confirm it.
Will it break? Will it hold? We’ll see. But smart money? They’re watching closely. 👀💪
Bitcoin just hit a DeMark Buy Countdown 13—very, very interesting! Some people are saying it’s time to rally, but I WANT TO SEE the Combo 13 complete. 🔥 Needs NEW LOWS. Gotta flush out the weak hands, folks! Stronger, better moves happen when we see real exhaustion.
Will Bitcoin step up? Will it do what’s needed? We’ll see. But smart traders know—patience wins BIGLY! 💰💪
DeMark Observations – Euro Stoxx 600
Goldman Sachs—yes, the so-called “smart money”—just SLASHED their targets on European equities. ❌📉 Not looking good, folks! Europe? Struggling. Weak. They wanted to play big, but guess what? NOT WINNING. NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Meanwhile, U.S. markets? STILL the place to be. 💪🇺🇸 Europe? Too much regulation, too much socialism, too many bad decisions. Goldman sees it, we see it, EVERYONE SEES IT! 🔥 America First, Europe… well, good luck! 😂
Despite that there were some more DeMark Sequential buy Countdown 13’s and buy Setup 9’s.
