Premarket Price Action
US equity futures: S&P +0.4%; Nasdaq +1.3%; Russell 2000 +0.4%.
Treasuries: Mostly unchanged, with rates up roughly 1 bp.
Dollar: Dollar Index is flat.
Crypto: Bitcoin +1.4%.
Commodities: Gold +1.2%; Silver +3.8%; WTI Crude +1.65%; Natural Gas +0.4%. Charts of Gold, Crude below
Here is the link from my Bloomberg TV appearance yesterday.
Overnight – Global Markets
Asia: Technology led a broad rebound. Taiwan gained 4.2%, South Korea 3.6%, Japan 3.3%, Shenzhen 3.6% and Shanghai 1.8%. Kioxia +17.1%, SMIC +8.2%, Lenovo +8.5%, SoftBank +6.0%, Samsung +4.3% and TSMC +3.9%. Hong Kong was roughly flat.
Europe: Major indices are up 0.3–0.5%, led by industrials, basic resources, technology, banks and energy. Consumer and defensive sectors lag. Novartis is higher following earnings, while Schindler and Julius Baer are weaker.
Premarket Setup and What’s Driving Markets
Monday’s attempted momentum rebound faded, but the unwind did not broaden into wholesale equity liquidation. This morning brings another stabilization attempt, with Asian semiconductors sharply higher and US technology futures leading, although the move still looks more positioning-driven than catalyst-driven.
- Momentum positioning is cleaner but not clean. The magnitude of the semiconductor drawdown is attracting tactical buyers, but Monday’s failed follow-through argues for caution around the opening strength.
- Earnings are beginning to replace market structure as the dominant input. Semiconductors are expected to generate nearly half of Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth, making this week’s reports critical for validating the compute and capital-spending narrative.
- Memory inflation is becoming a broader corporate-margin issue. CALX’s margin warning and attempt to introduce memory surcharges provide an early indication of what could appear repeatedly during earnings season.
- Geopolitical risk remains underpriced in equities. Markets are emphasizing potential ceasefire proposals despite continuing kinetic activity, elevated oil prices and persistent Strait of Hormuz supply risk.
- China policy is supporting regional risk appetite. State efforts to stabilize equities and strong technology performance are offsetting concerns about potential restrictions on exporting advanced Chinese AI technology.
Macro & Policy Focus
There are no significant US economic releases today. The calendar remains light until Thursday’s initial claims, followed Friday by July flash PMIs and June new-home sales.
The Fed is in blackout ahead of the July 29 meeting. Markets price approximately 33 bp of tightening through year-end, with the probability of a July move still low following cooler June inflation. Officials nevertheless continue to resist declaring victory, leaving the September meeting dependent on incoming labor, inflation and financial-condition data.
Oil remains the macro wildcard. Brent near $90 has not yet meaningfully tightened financial conditions, but a renewed clear move above $90 would complicate the disinflation narrative and pressure housing, transports and other rate-sensitive cyclicals.
Company, Sector Movers, Earnings summary
- GM: Strong beat and modest raise. EPS of $3.57 and revenue of $48B exceeded expectations, helped by pricing, lower EV losses, software revenue and better operating efficiency. Execution remains strong, although the unchanged North American margin range limits the incremental upside.
- HAS: Clean beat-and-raise. Both toys and Wizards/gaming exceeded expectations, margins improved and full-year revenue and operating-margin guidance moved higher.
- MMM: Stronger organic growth and margins drove a meaningful EPS beat and full-year guidance increase. Industrial and transportation strength more than offset consumer softness.
- DHI: EPS beat, but orders remained soft and full-year revenue guidance was reduced. Elevated incentives and affordability constraints keep the near-term homebuilder setup difficult.
- SYF: Large EPS beat and slightly higher guidance, with record purchase volume and improving account growth. The quality was mixed because lower provisions drove much of the upside while NII, NIM and efficiency were softer.
- NOC: Headline EPS beat benefited materially from a low tax rate. Backlog rose sharply, but margin contraction and unchanged cash-flow guidance make the report less impressive than the EPS suggests.
- MRSH: Modest beat driven by better organic growth, particularly in consulting. Margins were roughly in line.
- GPC: Small beat with full-year guidance reiterated. North American automotive expectations moved lower while international automotive improved.
- EFX: Results were roughly in line. Full-year ranges narrowed, but the Q3 EPS midpoint was slightly below consensus.
- KEY: Technically a beat-and-raise, but revenue, NII and NIM were softer than expected. Relative to other bank reports, the result is underwhelming.
- HAL: Revenue was better, but margin pressure left adjusted operating income and EPS approximately in line.
Other corporate developments
- TSM: Reportedly preparing price increases of as much as 10% for chip-production services next year, reinforcing the margin-pressure debate across downstream technology customers.
- ORCL: Credit-protection costs reached another record high amid continued scrutiny of AI data-center execution, cost overruns and financing needs.
- STLD: Beat expectations and pointed to strengthening steel fundamentals with further sequential improvement expected in Q3.
- CCK: Beat and raised on healthy can volumes.
- ZION: Weaker following a pretax pre-provision earnings miss.
- CALX: Soft guidance and memory-related margin pressure create a broader read-through for technology hardware customers.
- CBRL: Higher after stronger comparable-sales trends and an upside FY26 EBITDA outlook.
- SPCX: First public-company earnings report scheduled for August 4.
- CAH: Announced two acquisitions totaling $360M to expand At-Home Solutions.
Key S&P 500 Upgrades / Downgrades
Upgrades
- FTNT (Fortinet): Raised to Equal-Weight, Morgan Stanley; PT $133
- GS (Goldman Sachs): Raised to Hold, HSBC; PT $995
- ISRG (Intuitive Surgical): Raised to Buy, Mirae Asset Securities
- RL (Ralph Lauren): Raised to Outperform, Raymond James; PT $410
Downgrades
- ADBE (Adobe): Cut to Underweight, Morgan Stanley; PT $240
- CRM (Salesforce): Cut to Equal-Weight, Morgan Stanley; PT $185
- DDOG (Datadog): Cut to Hold, Jefferies; PT $280
- GILD (Gilead): Cut to Market Perform, Leerink
- INTU (Intuit): Cut to Equal-Weight, Morgan Stanley; PT $335
- LYV (Live Nation): Cut to Neutral, Susquehanna
- PWR (Quanta Services): Cut to Neutral, JPMorgan; PT $714
- TRV (Travelers): Cut to Market Perform, BMO; PT $379
- WDAY (Workday): Cut to Underweight, Morgan Stanley; PT $145
- XYL (Xylem): Cut to Neutral, JPMorgan; PT $130
What We’re Watching Today and Bottom Line
- Whether the semiconductor bounce survives beyond the opening hour after Monday’s failed recovery.
- Whether crude sentiment at 80% marks a near-term positioning peak despite ongoing geopolitical risk.
- Margin commentary tied to memory and component inflation across industrial and technology earnings.
- Breadth: confirmation would require strength beyond semiconductors and a better showing from builders, transports and regional banks.
The market is making another momentum-repair attempt, supported by strong Asian technology performance and solid earnings from several cyclicals. The setup is improved but not resolved: equity sentiment remains constructive, crude positioning is extreme and duration sentiment remains weak.
For the rebound to gain credibility, semiconductors must hold while breadth expands and oil remains contained below recent highs. Another intraday failure would reinforce that the unwind is not merely technical and that elevated earnings expectations still need a larger reset. Sentiment needs to hold the 50% midpoint level while the S&P needs to hold a few support levels mentioned below.
market snapshot
Economic reports today
premarket trading
US MARKET SENTIMENT
S&P bullish sentiment is 63%, down 2 points, while Nasdaq sentiment is 62%, unchanged. Both remain above the 50% midpoint, showing reduced but still constructive equity positioning.
VIX bullish sentiment fell 3 points to 23%, indicating volatility demand has eased modestly despite the failed Monday rebound. The current reading remains well below neutral and does not indicate broad defensive positioning.
Rates: Ten-year Treasury sentiment is 28%, down 3 points, while 30-year sentiment fell 6 points to 25%. Duration sentiment remains firmly below the 50% midpoint, reflecting concern about inflation, fiscal supply and oil rather than conviction in a sustained bond rally.
FX: Dollar sentiment rose 5 points to 76%, keeping positioning elevated but below the 80% extreme threshold. Euro sentiment fell to 28%, while yen sentiment remains deeply bearish at 18%. The yen remains a notable short-covering risk if Japanese officials intervene verbally or if global risk appetite deteriorates.
Commodities: Crude bullish sentiment reached 80%, entering the extreme bullish zone. It is more than 40 points above its 20-day sentiment average, creating significant mean-reversion risk even though geopolitical supply concerns remain legitimate.
Gold sentiment rose 5 points to 36% and silver sentiment gained 5 points to 29%, but both remain below neutral. Copper sentiment jumped 9 points to 72%, reflecting improving cyclical and China positioning. Corn rose 8 points to 52%, crossing above the midpoint, while soybean sentiment increased 7 points to 52%.
Price is lagging the sentiment spike.
US MARKETS
S&P futures 240-minute tactical time frame topped in early June and has moved sideways below TDST Setup Trend support and resistance. A downside Sequential is pending on bar 3 of 13. Upside Setup on bar 3 of 9. Completion on the upside Setup 9 would cancel the pending downside Sequential Countdown.
S&P futures daily has opened strong in the last few days and faded to the close below the high and opening price. 7400 is support from late June.
Nasdaq 100 240-minute tactical time frame has been making lower highs and lower lows from early June
Nasdaq 100 futures daily has faded in the last 3 days after opening strong. Reference Close support at 28,778 Friday’s close. A close below this would be a negative.
Extra charts we’re watching
WTI Crude continues higher with new Sequential on day 3 of 13. It’s hard to say the 13 will complete considering the extreme volatility with the players involved with Middle East turmoil.
Gold Futures with recent DeMark Sequential and Combo 13’s with a decent bottoming pattern. Price flip up (green 1) at the 20 day
US Dollar Index is flat to start the day, with the recent June high and July low as focus levels.
US 10-Year Yield has been hanging around the recent highs with new Sequential on day 3 of 13. Upside Propulsion target of 4.74%
Bitcoin Daily continues to bounce with corrective lower high wave 4 and downside pending Sequential Countdown
DeMark Observations – Euro Stoxx 600
