The Week Ahead August 16, 2026

Before we begin, we have been very busy creating pages for the new Hedge Fund Telemetry website. Everything will be new, function properly, provide quick navigation, and be without the bugs that have crept into the current site. One of the areas that we are very excited about is the new Trade Ideas section. Ideas will have a new organizational structure with ideas broken down into different time frames, directional, with status, giving everyone the ability to see what is most actionable. Ideas will be logged in historical context in various ways either within a period of time or individually per idea. Many more ideas and metrics. Delivery of ideas with changes will be faster, more timely, and constantly updated on the dashboard. Users will be able to set preferences for how they wish to receive updates, or receive fewer updates. The mock-up below is a little preview of one of the pages. Again, the new dashboard will be robust in terms of ideas, timing, and metrics. Just what you asked for.

One more thing that I wanted to share. Over the years, we have kept prices down despite our rising costs. For those who have been subscribers for years, your rate will remain grandfathered unchanged with renewals. We have been generous in offering discounts over the years to attract new and returning subscribers. Some have taken advantage of this – several times by unsubscribing and then re-subscribing with a discount. If you unsubscribe, your grandfathered old rate will reset to the new rate, so the discount is essentially the grandfathered rate. If your subscription is pending with a cancellation and you want to keep the grandfathered rate, please let us know. At times, we offer discounts on X or on a podcast, etc., as we are looking to increase our subscriber base. Some current subscribers have also clicked on these, essentially creating two subscriptions, and that gets messy with duplicate charges. I wanted to bring this to everyone’s attention. If you have questions, send an email to discuss.

I am extremely confident that what we are building and will soon release will be a massive step forward. It’s something I have wanted for years, and I could not be prouder of the effort the team is putting into the vision I requested. Lastly, I would like to thank everyone for their support and patience during the transition period, especially from long-term and returning subscribers.

Market Setup

The calendar becomes more balanced this week as the earnings season tapers and attention shifts toward macro data, FOMC minutes, housing, retail and a handful of important company reports. The immediate setup is constructive but less forgiving: S&P bullish sentiment remains elevated at 75%, Nasdaq at 72%, while Treasury sentiment is depressed and long-end yields remain near recent highs. This is not an especially catalyst-heavy week, but positioning is sufficiently extended that reactions to otherwise second-tier data could be amplified. Look for the Q2 13F fund filings recap email later tomorrow morning. Some thoughts on the PCT funds who added significantly in Q2. A $40 million Ferrari Luce?

More importantly, investors are already beginning to look through this week toward the much larger August 26–28 catalyst cluster: July PCE, Nvidia earnings and Warsh at Jackson Hole.

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Key Catalysts for the Week Ahead

• Market Structure: Earnings breadth is declining while analyst days, conferences and macro events take a larger share of the tape. That generally shifts the market toward factor, rates and positioning sensitivity rather than broad earnings revisions.
• Seasonality should be a factor heading into the mid-term elections.
• Macro Data: Housing dominates the early week with NAHB, permits, starts and pending home sales, followed by industrial production and Friday’s flash PMIs. Housing remains particularly relevant with borrowing rates elevated and HD/LOW/TOL reporting simultaneously.
• Central Banks / Policy: July FOMC minutes Wednesday at 2:00 ET should read hawkish given the discussion at the July 29 meeting, although their informational value is somewhat stale after softer employment and inflation data. Recent Fed commentary remains restrictive, but September hike probabilities have fallen.
• Rates: The market is pricing only about 23bp of Fed tightening through year-end, down roughly 6bp on the week. With 10-year and 30-year Treasury bullish sentiment at just 27% and 22%, respectively, duration positioning remains notably defensive.
• Geopolitics: Oil remains elevated with crude sentiment at 77% as Iran risk continues to create an inflation/geopolitical premium. A material further rise in crude would complicate the benign inflation narrative.
• Consumer: HD, LOW, TGT, TJX, WMT, ROST and BJ provide a broad read across housing, discretionary spending, off-price and grocery. The key distinction remains consumer resilience versus housing sensitivity.
• AI / Technology: FN, KEYS and ADI provide another test of AI infrastructure demand. The fundamental backdrop remains strong, but valuations increasingly require clean execution.
• Next Major Catalyst Cluster: The market’s real focus is already drifting toward PCE and NVDA on Wednesday 8/26, followed by Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday 8/28.

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Earnings Calendar

Monday

• Post-Market: DCGO – DocGo; FN – Fabrinet

Tuesday

• Pre-Market: HD – Home Depot; BIDU – Baidu; AS – Amer Sports; KLAR – Klarna
• Post-Market: TOL – Toll Brothers; KEYS – Keysight Technologies; JKHY – Jack Henry

Wednesday

• Pre-Market: LOW – Lowe’s; TGT – Target; TJX – TJX Companies; ADI – Analog Devices; EL – Estée Lauder
• Post-Market: BILL – BILL Holdings; COTY – Coty; NDSN – Nordson

Thursday

• Pre-Market: WMT – Walmart; DE – Deere; BABA – Alibaba; AAP – Advance Auto Parts
• Post-Market: ROST – Ross Stores; FLO – Flowers Foods; OSIS – OSI Systems

Friday

• Pre-Market: BJ – BJ’s Wholesale Club

Earnings Setup

• FN: AI-linked optical demand remains exceptionally strong, with Street revenue expected around +40%, but gross-margin pressure and a premium valuation raise the execution bar.
• HD: Management execution and greater Pro exposure are positives, but the housing backdrop remains difficult. The Street expects roughly +1% comps and $4.73 EPS. Rates remain the swing factor.
• KEYS: Strong AI-related test-and-measure demand supports a bullish fundamental setup, with revenue expected +29%, but the valuation leaves limited tolerance for anything less than clean guidance.
• TOL: Housing sentiment remains weak broadly, but Toll’s affluent customer base and high cash-buyer mix provide relative insulation from mortgage rates. Revenue is expected down roughly 11%, with margin compression remaining the key issue.
• ADI: One of the more attractive semiconductor setups into earnings as improving traditional auto/industrial demand intersects with incremental AI data-center exposure. Street sales are expected +36%.
• EL: The story is increasingly about restructuring and margin recovery rather than top-line acceleration. Investors will focus more on FY27 guidance than the quarter itself.
• LOW: Similar setup to HD: credible management and strategic initiatives offset by a housing backdrop that remains stubbornly difficult.
• TJX: One of the cleaner consumer stories given secular off-price share gains and strong execution. The problem is valuation — expectations are already high.
• DE: Less enthusiasm than for AI-linked industrials, but Small Ag & Turf and Construction remain supportive while Production & Precision Ag may be approaching a cyclical trough.
• WMT: Still one of the strongest retail franchises, supported by grocery traffic, share gains and higher-margin businesses including advertising, marketplace and Walmart+. The debate is less about execution and more about valuation, consumer elasticity and underlying margins, with tariff-refund accounting adding noise.

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Economic Calendar

Monday

• Empire Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; TIC Flows

Tuesday

• Building Permits; Housing Starts; Import/Export Prices; Industrial Production; Capacity Utilization; Pending Home Sales

Wednesday

• FOMC Minutes – 2:00 PM ET

Thursday

• Weekly Jobless Claims; Philadelphia Fed; Leading Indicators

Friday

• August Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs – 9:45 AM ET

The main macro issue is whether the economy is cooling enough to relieve rate pressure without creating a growth problem. The minutes may sound hawkish, but Friday’s PMIs should carry more informational value because they are current.

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Weekend Developments & Geopolitical Risk

• Primary Geopolitical Themes: Oil retains a geopolitical premium as markets monitor additional pressure on Iran. Crude sentiment at 77% is elevated but not yet extreme, leaving the market vulnerable to either escalation-driven upside or a sharp unwind if tensions ease.
• Macro Policy Signals: Fed rhetoric remained hawkish last week. Cleveland Fed President Hammack argued one 25bp move would likely be insufficient if inflation remains at current levels, while Barkin highlighted the risk that above-target inflation is becoming more embedded. Markets nevertheless reduced expected tightening following softer CPI/PPI.
• Capital Markets: Advasa is scheduled for a Nasdaq direct listing Monday, while defense systems company Lyntris is targeting a roughly $500M NYSE IPO Wednesday.
• Conferences / Investor Events: Santander, Needham Industrial Tech/Robotics/Power, Raymond James Park City, SEB Nordic Large Cap, Wyoming Blockchain Symposium and Macquarie ASEAN should create additional stock-specific catalysts.
• AAPL (Apple) was urged by Commerce Sec Lutnick not to buy Chinese memory, but the tech giant might go ahead and do so anyway (for products sold outside of the US) amid intense supply shortages WSJ
• Anthropic’s IPO valuation ambitions are predicated on the company’s 2028 sales projection of $190-200B and a Palantir/Cloudflare/SpaceX-like revenue multiple of ~40-50x Reuters; Anthropic apparently reported Q2 revenue of >$11.5B, up ~14-fold on a Y/Y, and the company achieved positive adjusted op. income last quarter Bloomberg
• BABA (Alibaba)’s Qwen open-weight models have accumulated more than 3B downloads over the last 6 months, making it the world’s most popular model family Bloomberg  BABA reports earnings this week and I will have a preview.
• NVDA (Nvidia) will provide a financial backstop for a massive OpenAI data center in Ohio, but only in the amount of $120B instead of the original plan of $250B ($120B will cover about 5GW worth of power, about half the 10GW initially envisioned), but might still offer vendor financing for OpenAI chip purchases that could total ~$350B (suggesting an aggregate financial commitment of ~$470B) WSJ

Charts we are watching

S&P daily has a new sell Setup 9 and a new Sequential on day 2 of 13 with an upside Propulsion target not far from here at 7889. It is possible for a little more upside; however, other Sequential Countdowns have canceled with price reversals under the TDST or flipped down with a completed Setup 9. Neither has happened but if they do you’ll know if they start to move in that direction.

RSP S&P equal weight has a new Sequential sell Countdown 13 and Combo on day 12 of 13. Other 13’s have seen nominal pullbacks and stalling periods but these latest signals could be more impactful due to seasonality – continue below.

Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG is the best sell side technicians (not many left) and has been telling me he thinks the S&P equal weight is now ready to pullback. I showed his S&P index seasonality on Friday’s note and the equal weight seasonality for mid-term election years is closer to a top.

Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International posted a new Theorist note. He’s another that is quite concerned about a “crash” like event in the future. Before you say he’s always bearish, he isn’t always bearish and has made a lot of upside calls that he won’t ever get credit for. For example, in late February 2009, CNBC had him on, likely to discuss how bad the markets were since they figured he’d talk bearish, which is what every strategist was at the time. (The S&P was moving into the 600s at that point). When the interviewer started sounding bearish, RP said he had turned bullish, to the interviewer’s surprise. He also highlighted the potential of Bitcoin back in 2010, which was the first time I had heard about it. Similar to the DeMark wave patterns (they differ from strict EW), the S&P is in upside wave 5 of 5, nearing a trendline from two other wave peaks. There is more from his note that I will show tomorrow with some interesting lunar activity. I know it’s crazy, but when you see what he pointed out, it might be true.

They say tops are a process, and RP is highlighting some of the mania markets and tops that have occurred.

This chart shows some of the progression in index tops

The $40 million Ferrari Luce

First of all, the Ferrari Luce is the first all-EV Ferrari, and it was designed by noted iPhone designer Jony Ive. Reviews have been horrible from the car world, as this doesn’t look like or sound like a Ferrari, lacking the true passion of what a Ferrari is all about – a visceral experience. Second, the starting price is a whopping $625k, and Ferrari has said it has met its sales goals. Ferrari aficionados are the buyers because the game is that one has to buy a few lesser Ferraris to get access to the high-demand limited editions, which are still awesome. But, over the weekend at the RM Sotheby’s auction, which is another story in itself, the first production Luce was auctioned off for charity. $40 million! Seriously, the Fed needs to raise rates to 10% after this nonsense.

Core long idea – PCT thoughts

The latest Q2 13F fund filings have landed, and the front-page holders show that nearly all holders increased their positions, with many new holders entering the stock. Q2 was an eventful quarter for the stock, as it ripped higher before dropping right back down. There were two overhangs on the stock that are now behind and resolved. The NJ plastic recycling recognition for Pure Cycle’s product is a huge positive, as it will serve as a model for other states with mandates starting in 2027 requiring companies to use a percentage of recycled plastic in their product packaging. P&G has already announced that some of its plastic will be made by Pure Cycle. The other overhang was the financing and a refi of a convert that was done in a very sloppy way. Nobody can deny that. Regardless, it solved the potential balance sheet hole. The company has a pathway to break even in early 2027, and the issues with Ironton seem to have the plant running at a decent run rate 24/5, with hopes to increase to 24/7 soon. Customers have already come out endorsing Pure Cycle’s product, signing on after trials (and with the NJ issue resolved favorably).

There is more to the production story, but I wanted to highlight the front-page holders, which are adding significantly to current positions, as well as some new holders. This matters because shorts increased their positions as well, with some of those convert holders. There are plenty of discretionary shorts along with quant baskets that screen for “unprofitable, cash burning, at-risk companies.” The company now has to deliver, which will obviously move the stock higher.

The big problem for the shorts and positive for the stock is that the long holders are sticky and getting into the short was easy, but getting out isn’t going to be easy, as finding the liquidity from the long holders to sell them their shares will be elusive, especially if the company starts producing positive results and more customers sign on.

Short interest is at a record high 57 million shares with 15 days to cover. Significant short squeeze potential here.