First Call June 29, 2020

  • S&P futures up 0.25% after the market pulled back last week amid rising regional coronavirus outbreaks in the US. European markets mostly higher. Follows broad weakness in Asia. Treasuries are little changed. The dollar is down on the euro cross, but not doing much on the yen cross. Gold is up 0.4%. Oil is higher, with WTI up 0.6%, coming off overnight weakness.
  • Coronavirus continues to be the key focus. Over the weekend, total global cases topped 10M and worldwide deaths moved over 500K. Most of the attention has been on surging new-case growth in states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California (while only two states reporting w/w decline in coronavirus rates). California followed Texas and Florida in rolling back some of its recent reopening efforts. US HHS Secretary Azar said Sunday the window to control the outbreak is closing, and Fauci warned a vaccine could not necessarily lead to herd immunity.
  • Limited macro headlines elsewhere and expectations are for a quiet week ahead of the US Independence Day holiday Friday, with some of the big events likely to be the Powell/Mnuchin appearance in the House tomorrow and the release of the June FOMC minutes Wednesday. Fed on Sunday disclosed companies from which it has bought bonds. Press also discussed the Fed’s evaluation of Australia’s experience with yield curve control. Overseas, ECB’s Schnabel continued to defend the bond-buying program. Villeroy said loose monetary policy needed. PBOC vowed a stronger macro-economic policy adjustment in Asia. On the data front, China’s industrial profits rose for the first time in six months.
  • FB seeing advertiser boycott expands, with PEP among the companies to join this weekend. SBUX said it is suspending ads on all social media platforms. Reuters reported BA to begin 737 MAX test flights today (this was out midday Friday and it will take many months to certify. COTY to buy a 20% stake in Kim Kardashian’s cosmetics brand. UAA said it would discontinue its record apparel partnership with UCLA. Fracking pioneer CHK declared bankruptcy.

market snapshot

key market sentiment

S&P index price now under the 20 day and sentiment also under the 20 day moving average of the sentiment poll

premarket movers

s&P and nasdaq futures charts

15 min charts chopping sideways with 3020 and 3000ish range

Not much of a change with the daily which could be seen as both bullish and bearish. 2969 is the 50 day support

hedge fund telemetry institutional options flows