Currency Markets

Currency Weekly December 15, 2024

Dec 15, 2024

Thomas Thornton

Highlights and themes

US Dollar strength remains dominant
It’s stretched with Dollar sentiment and other crosses at opposite extremes
Several have both upside and downside wave patterns which could be resolved with breakout/breakdown. I will explain more this week on notes.
Crypto remains elevated with some DeMark sell Countdown 13’s developing but I’ll watch for clear breakdowns before calling a top.

Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.

Currency Sentiment Overview

Currency sentiment highlights

US Dollar Indexes

DXY US Dollar Index daily has a DeMark Sequential on day 8 of 13 nearly in upside wave 5 (a close over wave 3 (blue 3) If and when this happens I’ll have details on First Call.

Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily nearly qualified into upside wave 5 of 5.

Bloomberg US Dollar Index weekly with DeMark sell Setup 9 which has worked well at inflection points

US Dollar bullish sentiment remains unchanged in the extreme zone.

US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Recent Sell Setup 9 that has seen reversals in the last few times it’s qualified.

Major USD Crosses

EURUSD Euro / US Dollar has a Sequential in progress on day 7 of 13.

Euro bullish sentiment remains under pressure.

Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar has a new DeMark Sequential 13 that had been pending. This has both upside and downside wave patterns in progress that I will try to discuss this week the implications.

British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment remains under some pressure failing at 50%

British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar with DeMark 9-13-9 pattern. Stretched

Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is oversold.

Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. New Setup 9 to watch.

USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar with 9-13-9 pattern. A price reversal is possible if there is a price flip to the downside this week.

Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment is oversold and the weekly 13 below is intriguing.

Canadian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. New Sequential sell Countdown 13.

USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc with DeMark Sequential on day 8 of 13 nearly qualifying into wave 5 with a little more continuation.

Swiss Franc bullish sentiment remains oversold but might stay oversold as it did in the spring.

Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDJPY Japanese Yen daily with recent reversal interrupted. There are both upside and downside wave patterns at play right now and breakout/breakdown of recent levels would give us confirmation of the dominant wave pattern. I’ll try and do a deeper view on this sometime this week. Possibly when the sell Setup qualifies on Wednesday.

Japanese Yen bullish sentiment started to increase and reversed hard down this past week.

Yen Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Crypto

Bitcoin daily has seen several DeMark Sell Countdown 13’s with small pauses, short lived pullbacks. Sequential on day 11 of 13 and could get the 13 early in the week. A break under the big bar in early December would possibly be a confirming sell signal.