Currency Markets | Unlocked Notes

Currency Weekly January 12, 2025

Jan 12, 2025

Thomas Thornton

Highlights and themes

  • US Dollar strength has continued despite a Sequential 13 last week. With a recent Setup 9 a secondary Sequential is now evident in progress.
  • I was concerned that the Dollar Sequential wasn’t going to have a response since there were pending Sequential Countdown’s still in progress on other crosses.
  • Weekly Sequential Countdown’s are now in progress on week 4 of 14 on Dollar on the upside and crosses on the downside.
  • Sentiment is extreme for US Dollar and even more so with Dollar crosses. Euro is at 9%!
  • I’m watching Yen closely as it seems a lot of action around the Yen has caused the most change in price.
  • Crypto has pulled back and has clear support that the bulls need to hold. I believe it can move lower from here but it’s been holding support several times when approached.

Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.

Currency Sentiment Overview

Currency sentiment highlights

US Dollar Indexes

DXY US Dollar Index daily has a secondary Sequential that started after the Setup 9 in December. The recent Sequential 13 still is in play and could see a reversal however the trend is very strong and other crosses also have pending Sequential Countdown’s still in progress.

I hid the Sequential that started after Setup 9 in November to show the new Sequential on how it was in progress with the previous Sequential.

DXY US Dollar Index weekly with Sequential on week 4 of 13.

Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily on day 8 of 13 with Sequential Countdown.

Bloomberg US Dollar Index weekly with Sequential on week 4 of 13.

US Dollar bullish sentiment has remained elevated and extreme for the last few months.

US Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. You’ll see many crosses with Sequential Countdown’s in progress. For example the US Dollar Index is on week 4 of 13.

Major USD Crosses

EURUSD Euro / US Dollar had a recent 13’s however there recent Setup 9 has a secondary Sequential on day 6 of 13. Like DXY.

Euro bullish sentiment remains under pressure at 9% – very oversold.

Euro Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar hit the downside wave 5 price objective with new Combo and Sequential 13 due on Monday.

British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment has continued to fall

British Pound Sterling Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar continues weakness with Sequential on day 9 of 13.

Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is very oversold but has been this way for several months.

Australian Dollar Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar still has the Sequential on day 9 of 13.

Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment remains under pressure

USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc has been stretched and has a new Combo 13

Swiss Franc bullish sentiment remains oversold and under pressure.

Swiss Franc Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDJPY Japanese Yen daily still has the Sequential in progress which I’m watching closely.

Japanese Yen bullish sentiment has been oversold with a move higher in the last week. Keep an eye on this next week.

Yen Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

Crypto

Bitcoin daily has both bullish and bearish wave patterns. I showed the bullish pattern if this makes a new high but the recent bounce could be a corrective lower high wave 2 of 5. It’s now qualified downside wave 3 with a potential downside wave 3 price objective of 84k. 90k remains the line in the sand for the bulls to hold.

Bitcoin bullish sentiment bounced on Friday after making a 2 month low

Ethereum has support at 3000 now in downside wave 3 of 5 with a potential downside wave 3 price objective of 2807

Three major Yen crosses

EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen. Still a pending upside Sequential but watching the reversal on Friday.

GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen. Still a pending upside Sequential but watching the reversal on Friday.

AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen. Aussie looks weaker than the other crosses above

US Dollar vs Emerging Markets

USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real is consolidating

USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso remains steady but watching Peso weakness from Friday

Mexican Peso bullish sentiment remains steady

Mexican Peso Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators

USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand with trend continuing with Sequential on day 5 of 13

USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) with trend continuing

DeMark Sequential Basics from Bloomberg

Detailed Commitment of Traders explanation