Highlights and themes
- It was an eventful week, with Yen strength the big story. Yen strength broke a few levels, but no alarm bells rang like they did last summer with the yen carry trade unwind.
- US dollar has weakened but not terribly
- Dollar crosses vs European currencies shows more dollar weakness potential
- The Sequential for US Dollar Index and Bloomberg Dollar Index is getting later in the Countdown
- Bitcoin continues to hold recent important support levels while there are some Sequential Countdowns potential telling us this will move lower.
- We had some site issues last week and couldn’t get notes out. Bloomberg also has not updated COT data.
Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.
Currency Sentiment Overview
Currency sentiment highlights
US Dollar Indexes
DXY US Dollar Index daily has a rolling top with several DeMark Sell Countdown 13’s.
DXY US Dollar Index weekly backed off from recent upside move. Upside Sequential left pending on week 4 of 13 while a downside Setup is on week 5 of 9. Completion of the downside Setup 9 if it happens will cancel the upside Sequential.
Bloomberg US Dollar Index daily also has faded with downside Sequential on day 9 of 13.
Bloomberg US Dollar Index weekly backed off of recent upside move. Higher low?
US Dollar bullish sentiment is off the highs but no significant levels have broken.
Major USD Crosses
EURUSD Euro / US Dollar has shown some euro strength vs USD
Euro bullish sentiment has been under pressure but off deep oversold levels.
GBPUSD British Pound Sterling / US Dollar might stall here with the possible Setup 9
British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment has been improving but might have failed at 50% again.
AUDUSD Australian Dollar / US Dollar has seen stronger Aussie dollar
Australian Dollar bullish sentiment has improved but stalled late last week.
USDCAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar holding recent lows… for now.
Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment remains under pressure
USDCHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc with a downside Sequential in progress
Swiss Franc bullish sentiment remains under pressure
USDJPY Japanese Yen daily broke two of the levels I have been focused on. This is a macro risk of another carry trade unwind if this continues.
Japanese Yen bullish sentiment continues higher
Crypto
Bitcoin daily has been holding the important 90k level and moving sideways for months. A downside Sequential is pending on day 3 with risk lower if ‘big round number’ 90k breaks and TDST support at 89,164 fails to hold.
Bitcoin weekly shows the risk of breaking 90k after consolidating possibly trapping a lot of longs.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment has seen the 20 day moving average of bullish sentiment start to slope down.
Ethereum continues to consolidate with a pending Sequential
Three major Yen crosses – breakdown?
EURJPY Euro / Japanese Yen illustrates the yen strength and euro weakness with Sequential on day 8 of 13 and nearly breaking the lows from last summer!
GBPJPY British Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen with potential new downside Sequential starting.
AUDJPY Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen sideways with no reaction
US Dollar vs Emerging Markets
USDBRL US Dollar / Brazilian Real with new buy Countdown 13’s developing.
USDMXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso continues sideways.
Mexican Peso bullish sentiment remains in the elevated zone
USDZAR US Dollar / South African Rand has faded despite the upside Sequential
USDCNH US Dollar / Chinese Offshore Renminbi (Yuan) with downside Sequential
DeMark Sequential Basics from Bloomberg
Detailed Commitment of Traders explanation
