- S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 1.5%-1.75% in Friday morning trading, near worst premarket levels after latest Trump tariff pronouncements. Stocks on track for a weekly losses with all of the major indexes off more than 1%. Treasuries with 2’s down 7bps, 10’s 4bps, and 30’s down 1bps. Dollar index down 0.65%, on track for its first down week of the past five. Gold up 1.9%. Bitcoin off 3% with new DeMark sell Countdown 13’s. WTI crude down 1.2%.
- I added the 240 minute time frame charts to watch below with the S&P and Nasdaq futures.
- Trade Ideas Sheet: This story about Nuclear power is positive for Uranium has them moving up this morning. I will be holding our current 7% weight. Should be a decent day for the overall PNL.
- Trade back on the front burner after Trump this morning said discussions with EU are “going nowhere” and said a “straight 50% tariff” will be applied on the bloc starting June 1st. Followed earlier reporting US was likely to reject EU’s latest offer in a call with USTR Greer this afternoon; recall Bessent said last weekend countries need to negotiate in good faith or face the US simply setting a tariff rate. Trump post punctuates a week where White House has continued to tout ongoing negotiations though showing few concrete developments (with the 90-day pause now nearly halfway over). Has been some waning optimism on the US-China front (though parties held first call since Geneva de-escalation), while negotiations with Japan moving slowly. Trump this morning also warned AAPL it needs to manufacture iPhones in the US or face a tariff of at least 25%.
- New home sales on the economic calendar this morning. Street looking for new home sales to decline 4.7% in April following a 7.4% increase in March. Fed’s Musalem, Schmid and Cook all scheduled to speak.
- AAPL lower after Trump posted iPhones must be made in the US or company will face a tariff of at least 25%. INTU a post-earnings standout with focus on Consumer segment outperformance driven by Live and better FY guidance. WDAY cRPO beat seen as inflated due to boost from ST tenant contracts while company also talked about potential policy and tariff change headwinds on education and international. ADSK beat and said has not seen any incremental macro impact yet. ROST pressured by softer Q2 guidance, withdrawal of FY guidance and comments about profitability drag from tariffs. DECK down big with earnings takeaways focused on HOKA growth slowdown and lack of FY26 guidance amid tariff uncertainty.
- Key Upgrades/Downgrades: Best Buy Co. assumed neutral at Wedbush Securities. Deckers Outdoor downgraded to market perform from outperform at Telsey Advisory Group. Deckers Outdoor downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KeyBanc. Deckers Outdoor downgraded to in line from outperform at Evercore ISI.
market snapshot
economic reports today
premarket trading
US MARKET SENTIMENT
S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment was unchanged yesterday with the indexes mixed. The chart shows a hook down to the 20 day moving average of sentiment
Bond bullish sentiment with small uptick
Currency bullish sentiment highlighted with Bitcoin sentiment in the extreme zone at 83%. New sell Countdown 13’s in play
Commodity bullish sentiment mixed to mostly negative downside in sentiment
US MARKETS
S&P futures 60-minute tactical time frame with new Sequential buy Countdown 13. The previous 13’s worked stalling the price. Watching the May 12th de-escalation day still some downside to get there. A lot of trapped buyers in the last two weeks
The 240 minute time frame has a rounding top with DeMark Sequential on bar 4 of 13
S&P futures daily falling hard this morning with Setup on day 3 of 9. As a reminder on how the Setup works: In order to initiate a Setup (green 1-9 numbers), there must first be a “price flip.” A “price flip” is defined as a contra-trend move identified by a close that is higher/lower than the close four price bars earlier. In order to complete the Setup 9 there must be nine consecutive closes higher/lower than the close four price bars earlier. If this pattern is interrupted the Setup will cancel and disappear from the chart.
Nasdaq 100 60-minute tactical time frame is still above the May 12th de-escalation day but has trapped a lot of buyers higher
The 240 minute time frame has a rounding top with Sequential on bar 4 of 13.
Nasdaq 100 futures daily with a large drop in the premarket to the 200 day which has been flat for quite a while.
Extra charts we’re watching
Euro Stoxx 600 as shown recently with exhaustion sell signals. The number of sell Countdown 13’s recently within the index was also something I highlighted. Staying short FEZ Euro Stoxx 50
US Dollar Index daily remains under some pressure under 100 with Sequential pending on day 9 of 13.
US 10-Year Yield backing off again today yet there remains a pending upside Sequential Countdown on day 3 of 13.
Bitcoin Daily with both DeMark Sequential and Combo sell Countdown 13’s. Should see stall out here with a 5-10% pullback, December 13’s had a 14% pullback
DeMark Observations – Euro Stoxx 600
