HIGHLIGHTS AND THEMES
- As mentioned last week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has both positive and negative aspects.
- Positive is that the weekly has a new Sequential starting, but the daily will likely see a pullback
- Weakness was broad late in the wee.k
- Energy still looks decent ahead – I added Gasoline futures below, which will have CPI implications as it has been rising.
- Metals should pullback – all of them
- Livestock continues to weaken
- Grains backed off, but these still look buyable
- Softs were also weak late in the week. Cocoa, which I have started to like, failed, which I thought might happen with the new Sequential and Combo buy Countdown 13’s. Still good risk-reward upside.
Comments on charts. If you have questions or would like more context, please email.
BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY
Bloomberg Commodity Index daily has been improving however the recent Combo 13 using the strict version (1c if you’re a DM user) will likely see a pullback which was the negative I mentioned this past week but the weekly chart still has some positives developing.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Weekly is positive factor with upside Sequential starting however this can and might again move choppy sideways with this Sequential Countdown as it did in the past.
COMMODITY SENTIMENT OVERVIEW
OIL AND ENERGY
Bloomberg Energy Index daily quietly lifting near the 200 day.
WTI Crude futures daily has been moving sideways still above recent low
Crude weekly with recent Sequential buy Countdown 13. No turn yet
WTI Crude futures bullish sentiment needs to clear 50% on the upside
WTI Crude futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Recent buy Countdown 13
Natural Gas futures daily is a bit overbought and I sold the UNG this week. I pullback is to be bought
Natural Gas futures bullish sentiment backed off late in the week.
Natural Gas futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
I added Gasoline futures as this has been climbing and the CPI (if they ever release it again) tracks gasoline and not crude so this might come into the inflation narrative.
Metals
Gold daily with potential lower high wave 2 of 5.
Gold bullish sentiment with sharp drop late in the week. Watch the 50% midpoint level
Gold futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Sequential 13 and Sell Setup 9.
Silver daily with recent Sequential sell Countdown 13 and drop late in the week
Silver bullish sentiment with sharp drop late in the week
Silver futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators with Combo 13 and overbought
Copper futures daily still with upside Sequential in progress with 50/200 day support
Copper futures bullish sentiment had held the 50% level despite the extreme price volatility
Copper futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators
Platinum daily with potential new downside Sequential Countdown starting.
Platinum bullish sentiment with sharp drop on Friday. Watch 50% midpoint level
Platinum Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Is a bit overbought
Palladium daily with downside Sequential on day 3 of 13 with lower high wave 2 of 5.
Palladium bullish sentiment fell hard on Friday hitting a 2 month low
Palladium Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Still with pending upside Sequential
Grains
Corn futures daily in upside wave 3 with big reversal on Friday
Corn futures bullish sentiment hit a one year high this past week
Wheat futures daily still with Sequential pending on day 7 of 13 with strong reversal on Friday
Wheat futures bullish sentiment moved to a YTD high this past week
Wheat futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Lots of 13’s with TDST resistance at 585
Soybean futures daily with Sequential pending on day 8 of 13 with big reversal on Friday
Soybean futures bullish sentiment remains elevated
Soybean futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators has TDST resistance at 1188
Livestock
Live Cattle futures daily with Sequential now on day 4 of 13
Live Cattle futures bullish sentiment remains under pressure
Live Cattle futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators with recent 13’s with 202 as TDST support
Lean Hogs futures daily failed to clear the 200 day and secondary Sequential on day 6 of 13
Lean Hogs bullish sentiment bounced last week
Lean Hogs Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. with new YTD low
Softs
Cotton futures daily hit a new low wiht Sequential on day 10 of 13 and buy Setup 9. In downside wave 5 now
Cotton futures bullish sentiment has been stronger than price action but that’s starting to change
Cotton Futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Recent Sequential 13
Coffee futures daily faded but still has the upside Sequential pending at the 50 day. TDST support at 355
Coffee futures bullish sentiment bounced off the 50% level again
Sugar futures daily bounced with Combo with Sequential still pending
Sugar futures bullish sentiment remains oversold with a slight turn
Sugar futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. New Combo 13 and Sequential on week 12/13
Cocoa futures daily couldn’t continue the bounce failing at the 50 day. I questioned if the secondary Sequential would continue which it did with new Sequential, Aggressive Sequential and Combo 13’s. I still like this one as a long
Cocoa futures bullish sentiment remains very oversold
Cocoa futures Commitment of Traders large speculators and weekly DeMark Setup, Sequential, and Combo indicators. Still with downside week 8 of 13. The Setup 9 didn’t get a reaction that I thought might occur.
