- Remember all of the inflows from 2021?
- Retail investors have not capitulated
- Hedge funds have lowered leverage to the lowest levels in over 15 years
- This is quite different from previous bear markets and possibly stalling a VIX spike
- Where is the money going? And what to expect with the “future sellers”
- Taking off one long idea
Unlocked Notes
Take a look at some recent samples of our work.
The Week Ahead October 2, 2022
- The week ahead will have several important macro catalysts.
- More Fed speakers, ISM manufacturing will start the week and the Jobs data will finish the week
- Added some US market index charts to this note
Trapped
- This market has trapped a lot of investors.
- It wasn’t easy being short in the last week, yet knowing who ran it up gave me confidence a pullback like this was just a matter of time
- Powell’s speech Friday can’t soothe the bulls because it would just make his job harder
Dr. Strangelove 2022
- Should we worry about the Fed raising rates?
- Even if you do worry, the Fed isn’t the worry as there are plenty of other worries
- Adding more long exposure and a new short idea
Free Candy
- Ahead of the Fed, the bounce is very strong with a lot of doubters
- Thoughts on the Trade Ideas sheet and taking profits on recent SPY and QQQ call spreads
- If anything big happens after the Fed I will post another note
Soft Landing The Movie
- The markets are in a good mood today with potential Ukraine talks and Fed Chair Powell stating 25bps is what to expect at the March meeting.
- He also mentioned “Soft Landing” which is a great title for a movie
- So what would be the plot of the movie?
- Crude going higher as a reminder is economic cyanide
- A couple of Trade Idea’s