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Future Sellers Update

Future Sellers Update

by | Oct 11, 2022

  • Remember all of the inflows from 2021?
  • Retail investors have not capitulated 
  • Hedge funds have lowered leverage to the lowest levels in over 15 years
  • This is quite different from previous bear markets and possibly stalling a VIX spike
  • Where is the money going?  And what to expect with the “future sellers”
  • Taking off one long idea
The Week Ahead October 2, 2022

The Week Ahead October 2, 2022

by | Oct 2, 2022

  • The week ahead will have several important macro catalysts.
  • More Fed speakers, ISM manufacturing will start the week and the Jobs data will finish the week
  • Added some US market index charts to this note

 

Trapped

Trapped

by | Aug 22, 2022

  • This market has trapped a lot of investors. 
  • It wasn’t easy being short in the last week, yet knowing who ran it up gave me confidence a pullback like this was just a matter of time
  • Powell’s speech Friday can’t soothe the bulls because it would just make his job harder
Dr. Strangelove 2022

Dr. Strangelove 2022

by | Mar 17, 2022

  • Should we worry about the Fed raising rates?
  • Even if you do worry, the Fed isn’t the worry as there are plenty of other worries
  • Adding more long exposure and a new short idea
Free Candy

Free Candy

by | Mar 16, 2022

  • Ahead of the Fed, the bounce is very strong with a lot of doubters
  • Thoughts on the Trade Ideas sheet and taking profits on recent SPY and QQQ call spreads
  • If anything big happens after the Fed I will post another note
Soft Landing The Movie

Soft Landing The Movie

by | Mar 2, 2022

  • The markets are in a good mood today with potential Ukraine talks and Fed Chair Powell stating 25bps is what to expect at the March meeting.
  • He also mentioned “Soft Landing” which is a great title for a movie
  • So what would be the plot of the movie?
  • Crude going higher as a reminder is economic cyanide
  • A couple of Trade Idea’s