Unlocked Notes

Take a look at some recent samples of our work.

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Soft Landing The Movie

Soft Landing The Movie

  • The markets are in a good mood today with potential Ukraine talks and Fed Chair Powell stating 25bps is what to expect at the March meeting.
  • He also mentioned “Soft Landing” which is a great title for a movie
  • So what would be the plot of the movie?
  • Crude going higher as a reminder is economic cyanide
  • A couple of Trade Idea’s
A Bullard in a china shop

A Bullard in a china shop

  • A CPI showing the highest inflation in 40 years and the market bounced
  • Fed Governor Bullard put a halt to that calling for larger and faster rate hikes
  • The market just has been too forgiving with what is happening in the macro
Tony Hawkish

Tony Hawkish

  • The market is anticipating the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference
  • The market now has some consensus expectations with Powell and the Fed
  • Powell is expected to be hawkish but he’s gotta pull off a very tough trick to also calm the markets
  • Raising stops on trading longs SPY, QQQ, IWM.  Covering LRCX +13% ahead of earnings
  • Credit spreads have not given any risk-off signals like 2018 and 2020
Mixed Messages

Mixed Messages

  • There are a lot of mixed messages with the equity market right now
  • I run through sentiment and internals that normally is easy to make a call 
  • One market that has a very clear message is the bond market
  • Adding one new long idea and selling one long idea 
  • I’m not overly enthusiastic about today’s bounce
Sell Tickets

Sell Tickets

  • The equity market noticed the rise in rates… finally
  • The progression of markets unwinding is briefly discussed
  • Some examples of Erlanger Research Type 1 (short squeeze) and Type 4 (long squeeze) short interest candidates
  • More details on Rekor Systems
  • The “future sellers” thesis is a 2022 risk
  • Cutting a couple of recent “knife catcher” long ideas with losses
  • Another big report and happily it’s out a lot earlier than yesterday’s note