TOP EVENTS AND CATALYSTS
Next week, the market will process a burst of potential catalysts in the US economic calendar before easing into year-end. Primarily, the December FOMC announcement and Powell press conference on Wednesday afternoon, with analysts watching for possible dovish changes to the dot plot and any messaging shifts that could point toward an easing bias (especially given last week’s dovish commentary by Waller and Powell’s decision not to push back on the market’s aggressive rate-cut expectations). Just prior to the Fed will be Tuesday’s November CPI report, with consensus looking for only a 0.05% m/m headline rise but a step up to 0.3% m/m in the core (from October’s 0.2% pace). Other releases of note include November retail sales on Thursday, with consensus expecting another 0.1% monthly drop. November industrial production and December’s NY Fed Empire survey coming next Friday. The market will also be watching next week’s $108B in 3Y/10Y/30Y Treasury auctions for any signals about the health of demand.
For earnings, it’s a slow week with notable reports, including Monday postmarket: ORCL; Tuesday premarket: JCI; Wednesday postmarket: ADBE; Thursday postmarket: COST, LEN, and Friday premarket: DRI.
The analyst/investor event calendar remains busy with notable events expected from ACM, AFRM, CERE, DPZ and GTLS on Monday; CNC, EXEL, GHX, LHX, LGND, NVTS, and SLM on Tuesday; AJG, ALNY, BNS, BYON, PLD, RILY, and VRNT on Wednesday; and CHWY, INTC, PECO, and SDGR on Thursday.
Here are unlocked Currency and Commodity Weekly Notes. We offer these for current Hedge Fund Telemetry subscribers with a discount rate of just $250 per year for both. We have had a big response with this deal, and if you’re interested in getting these notes, send us an email, and we will take care of adding you to the distribution. Even if you glance through these each week, it gives one a good update that could be informative for other markets, sectors, and stocks.
Charts we are watching
The shorter-term tactical charts show the choppy action from the gap higher on November 14th – the last CPI report. 60 minute S&P should have a new Sequential sell Countdown 13 on Monday morning.
Same with the 240 minute time frame as the Sequential is on bar 12 of 13
The Nasdaq 60-minute time frame did qualify the Sequential sell Countdown 13 late on Friday. And this unlike the S&P did not make a new high last week.
US economic data for the week
KEY MARKET SENTIMENT
Equity bullish sentiment is nearing the extreme zone >80%. It is very rare equity sentiment, in just 5 weeks, makes a full move from oversold to overbought.
S&P and Nasdaq bullish sentiment firmly in the elevated zone >70% after a brief pullback.
Bond bullish sentiment
Currency bullish sentiment with US Dollar bullish sentiment back over the 50% midpoint level while Euro and Pound broke the 50% level to the downside. Yen sentiment increased over the week after outsized moves. Bitcoin is at the high for the year where it has pulled back several times.
Commodity bullish sentiment shows Crude sentiment bouncing although it remains in the oversold zone. The Commodity Weekly will have a more detailed look with the DeMark Sequential still pending. Gold and Silver sentiment dropped dramatically over the past week from the extreme zone.
EARNINGS, CONFERENCES, AND ECONOMIC REPORTS
- Monday 11-Dec:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Post-close: BLBD, CASY, NOTV, ORCL
- Analyst/Investor Events: ACM, AFRM, CERE, DPZ, GTLS
- Brokerage Conference:
- UN COP28
- American Society of Hematology Meeting
- Oppenheimer 5G Summit
- Advanced Automotive Battery Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- Europe: CPI y/y, PPI y/y, Trade Balance
- Asia: CGPI y/y
- Corporate:
- Tuesday 12-Dec:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: JCI
- Post-close: CSBR, EMKR, MAMA
- Analyst/Investor Events: BTAI, CNC, EXEL, GHC, HYLN, LGND, LHX, NVTS, SDIG, SLM
- Brokerage Conference:
- UN COP28
- American Society of Hematology Meeting
- Advanced Automotive Battery Conference
- John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference
- Envision: A State and Local Government IT Summit
- Macquarie Japan Corporate Day
- New Street Research BCG Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: NFIB Small Business Index, CPI, Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek, Treasury Budget, API Crude Inventories
- Europe: CPI y/y, ILO Unemployment Rate, ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator
- Asia: Unemployment Rate, Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index
- Corporate:
- Wednesday 13-Dec:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: ABM, CGNT, PLAB, QSG, REVG
- Post-close: ADBE, ASYS, MINDP, NDSN, OPTT, STRM, ZDGE
- Analyst/Investor Events: AJG, ALEC, ALNY, BASE, BCAB, BNS, BYON, LUCD, PLD, RILY, SLCA, VRNT
- Brokerage Conference:
- Advanced Automotive Battery Conference
- Envision: A State and Local Government IT Summit
- Macquarie Japan Corporate Day
- New Street Research BCG Conference
- RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Private Company Conference
- MQ Virtual Conference: India’s Digital Dreams
- Roth Deer Valley Event
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications, PPI, FOMC Meeting/Fed Funds Rate, DOE Crude Inventories
- Europe: Construction Output y/y, Industrial Production y/y, Trade Balance
- Asia: Core Machinery Orders m/m, Industrial Production m/m (revised)
- Corporate:
- Thursday 14-Dec:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: IPA, JBL, KNOP, MLEC, YJ
- Post-close: COST, GTIM, LEN, MESA, NX
- Analyst/Investor Events: CHWY, INTC, PECO, SDGR
- Brokerage Conference:
- Advanced Automotive Battery Conference
- RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Private Company Conference
- MQ Virtual Conference: India’s Digital Dreams
- Roth Deer Valley Event
- DNB Nordic Healthcare Conference
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US: Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Weekly Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- Canada: Manufacturing Sales
- Europe: CPI y/y, PPI y/y, Final CPI y/y
- Asia: Fixed Asset Investment (ytd) y/y, Industrial Production y/y, Retail Sales y/y
- Corporate:
- Friday 15-Dec:
- Corporate:
- Earnings:
- Pre-open: DRI
- Analyst/Investor Events: UTZ
- Brokerage Conference:
- MQ Virtual Conference: India’s Digital Dreams
- Roth Deer Valley Event
- Earnings:
- Economic
- US:Empire Manufacturing, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
- Canada: Housing Starts, Wholesale Inventories, Wholesale Trade
- Europe: Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, CPI y/y
- Corporate:
Thanks to Street Account, Vital Knowledge, and Bloomberg as valued sources.