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Dr. Strangelove 2022

Dr. Strangelove 2022

  • Should we worry about the Fed raising rates?
  • Even if you do worry, the Fed isn’t the worry as there are plenty of other worries
  • Adding more long exposure and a new short idea
Free Candy

Free Candy

  • Ahead of the Fed, the bounce is very strong with a lot of doubters
  • Thoughts on the Trade Ideas sheet and taking profits on recent SPY and QQQ call spreads
  • If anything big happens after the Fed I will post another note
Soft Landing The Movie

Soft Landing The Movie

  • The markets are in a good mood today with potential Ukraine talks and Fed Chair Powell stating 25bps is what to expect at the March meeting.
  • He also mentioned “Soft Landing” which is a great title for a movie
  • So what would be the plot of the movie?
  • Crude going higher as a reminder is economic cyanide
  • A couple of Trade Idea’s
A Bullard in a china shop

A Bullard in a china shop

  • A CPI showing the highest inflation in 40 years and the market bounced
  • Fed Governor Bullard put a halt to that calling for larger and faster rate hikes
  • The market just has been too forgiving with what is happening in the macro
Tony Hawkish

Tony Hawkish

  • The market is anticipating the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference
  • The market now has some consensus expectations with Powell and the Fed
  • Powell is expected to be hawkish but he’s gotta pull off a very tough trick to also calm the markets
  • Raising stops on trading longs SPY, QQQ, IWM.  Covering LRCX +13% ahead of earnings
  • Credit spreads have not given any risk-off signals like 2018 and 2020
Mixed Messages

Mixed Messages

  • There are a lot of mixed messages with the equity market right now
  • I run through sentiment and internals that normally is easy to make a call 
  • One market that has a very clear message is the bond market
  • Adding one new long idea and selling one long idea 
  • I’m not overly enthusiastic about today’s bounce